Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

77 hands on him tell us some moar stuff bout him

Originally Posted by Penneywize

Are you guys aware of how statistically probable it is for a guy who runs 18/15 lifetime to run 26/21 over a span of 77 hands? All we have now is a weak confidence interval that his stats are somewhere near 26/21.

Coles notes, 77 hands is gay, and at the very least you should be able to give us some actual reads on how he's played before. Especially if you've seen some showdowns.

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

more likely to get accurate reads on bet sizing/how he spazzes in 77 hands than accurate hud stats imo

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

yea i guess most the shit hes calling a .4 bet with hes gonna call a psb with ...that being said as played you need to come up with a plan, do you think you are good vs his range or not, if hes gonna stack off with jj,AT,KT,JT,QT, or 67s then jamming the flop is more than fine, if you dont think he is going to do that, then like DC said, call and get value on more streets, all we are down to right now is 44,55,tt, and 45s so 11 hands. Itd be a lot more helpful for YOU as well as us helping if you at least put in the effort to assemble some sort of range

Originally Posted by shallam

You only have a 100 BB so I think it's acceptable to go broke with an over pair. You could be up against AT, JJ, QQ. But of course you could also be up against a set or AA. I'd rather go broke before the flop or the flop, then late in the hand when a pair isn't nearly as strong.


There is also nothing wrong with trying to call this down, control the pot, maximizing the balance between when you are beat and when you aren't. FWIW, this looks like some sort of strong made hand, I would almost entirley rule out draws.

Originally Posted by kidsoldja

You have to realise that people dont bluff a great deal or get it in with weak draws all that much. 90% of the time when someone raises a flop bet its because they have a big made hand not because they think they can level us by raising a dry board as its more likely to be a set than a draw!

This is 10NL IF he were bluffing the flop, he is unlikely to doubel or tripple barrell as a bluff.

This is not to say it never happens but it just dosent happen enough for you to be able to do anything fancy to combat it. If he is BLUFFING this i.e. he has nothing rather than a guy who value raises AT (different mentality) then you are going to get tons of better chances to win his stack. If he is this bluffy he will at some point try and bluff you off the nuts so you should aim to fold more against him knowing that when you do hit you have huge implied odds.

But really, when he raises the flop we are likely beat. If we call then we should donk the turn, partly for value (we may have the best hand) bpartly for info, if he has nothing he folds if he has the nuts he may raise and if he has a margional hand he calls. Also its partly for pot control, we should not feel happy getting stacks in with pairs so if we donk 1/2 pot on the turn and river and dont get raised then we have built a pot in lign with the strength of our hand. If we get raised we must fold.
Dont assume that most players are doing anything other than raising big hands because 90% of the time, thats what they are doing.

If the board were wetter.. maybe a FD too then we could think about stacking with a pair because of the sheer number of draws out there, but this isnt the board for that.