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10NL - AKo on KJJA9 board

  
 
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kiwiMark
Old 03-18-2010, 09:45 PM     Post subject: 10NL - AKo on KJJA9 board #1 (permalink)  
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 This hand is me trying to figure out how different lines could get me more value.

Villain (20maxim20) is 56/28 and tends to be very aggressive postflop at the sign of weakness, but folds if strength is shown.

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG volk585 ($2.95)
UTG+1 sexylhyn68 ($15)
CO Hero ($10)
BTN 20maxim20 ($4.90)
SB ZRX88 ($3.95)
BB DarkSid3r ($11.50)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is CO
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 20maxim20 calls $0.40, 1 fold, DarkSid3r calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.25, 3 players)
DarkSid3r checks, Hero checks, 20maxim20 bets $0.30, DarkSid3r calls $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

Turn: ($2.15, 3 players)
DarkSid3r checks, Hero checks, 20maxim20 bets $0.50, DarkSid3r folds, Hero calls $0.50

River: ($3.15, 2 players)
Hero checks, 20maxim20 bets $0.70, Hero calls $0.70


Preflop: Standard open, Villains have pretty similar preflop stats thus far, although I only have a very few hands on DarkSid3r, so I think both their ranges are approximately: {A2+, K4s+, K6o+, Q6s+, Q8o+, J8s+, J9o+, 54s+, 75s+, 22+}

Flop: Here I could make a cbet, but if I do so I think I'm only getting value from the kings in villains' ranges, whereas I'm almost certain that if I check 20maxim20 is going to bet his entire range, so I check.

Turn: This is the point in the hand I'm not sure about. If it was a heads up pot against 20maxim20, I'm sure I could value bet $1.50 here and get called by A8+, Jacks, sets and flushdraws, against which I have 54% equity, making the EV of the bet=$0.81
However when I check, I can expect him to bet say 50 cents (at the time I hoped it would be a little more, but whatever) with his entire range, against which I have 80% equity, so an EV of $0.40
Now the value bet looks better, but with the call I can get further value from air on the river, so the equation isn't over yet. Also, I was weary that DarkSid3r was still in the hand.

River: So, if I check this river, I'm expecting villain to bet his entire range for $0.8, I have 82% equity against this, so we can add a further $0.67 to the $0.4 of the turn, making the EV of my passive line = $1.07
If I bet the turn, the on the river if I assume that he calls with the entire range from the turn minus missed flush draws, I only have 45% equity so can't value bet here. And if I check after betting the turn then he probably bets both for value and with missed flush draws here, against which I've got 58% equity, so I guess we can add a further $0.4 to the $0.81 from the turn, meaning I should have bet the turn? Head asplode, is anybody able to follow this at all, I might just be going crazy. I think I'm gonna post this in the BC as well as in my op.
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