10NL 6m - AA on a wet board MW

[tiltingdonkey]

MP is 28/25 out of 32 hands, no postflop reads yet except for 1/1 fcbet which obviously doesn't mean much. BTN is 26/16 out of 31 hands, and is shaping up to be a station.

I think I should be betting more on the flop. Thoughts?

Turn, what's our best option?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($5.19)
SB ($11.87)
BB ($4)
Hero (UTG) ($10.72)
MP ($10.36)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, A
Hero bets $0.30, MP calls $0.30, Button calls $0.30, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.30) 5, Q, J (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.90, MP calls $0.90, Button calls $0.90, 1 fold

Turn: ($4) 2 (3 players)
Hero ???

[Cobra_1878]

Play looks fine to me, good sized bet on the flop. I just carry on with another bet on the turn as I doubt a 2 has helped anyone, I doubt you're behind and if anyone was calling with a FD you want to price them out of seeing the river now

[AdamThePirate]

Do you think 2 improves your opponent's range?

[bikes]

$3.1

[tiltingdonkey]

Do you think 2 improves your opponent's range?

No. This is clearly a b/f to me. Question is, how much? And if called, what's our plan on the river?

[Chusko]

Do we really consider this a b/f over b/c? What better hand doesn't raise on the flop.

[tiltingdonkey]

Do we really consider this a b/f over b/c? What better hand doesn't raise on the flop.

Maybe you're right. This isn't exactly clear b/f. I dunno. what am i thinking.

[Icanhastreebet]

As a default I'd 4x pre at 10NL, basically because it's a passive stake, we'll increase our winrate by playing bigger pots for worst players usually. Save the 3xing for playing versus competent players who will just start 3bing you like mad if you 4x etc.

That said, flop sizing is fine, now I'd bet again planning to shove almost any river except the scariest. I really think this is an easy b/f. I mean do villains @ 10NL really shove over 2barrels 3way w/ top pair or a draw?

[Miffed22001]

Given board texture id expect to be raised by any hands that beat us - sets/QJ

Personal experience is that massive draws (ie any flush/straight flush/gutter draws) dont raise on this flop so any obvious draw arriving on the river is a c/f as is a Q so we are looking at 15-20 cards on the river we dont like.

Id go $3 and push any non diamond, queen etc

Similar to the hand i posted such a barf spot.

[bikes]

Given board texture id expect to be raised by any hands that beat us - sets/QJ

Personal experience is that massive draws (ie any flush/straight flush/gutter draws) dont raise on this flop so any obvious draw arriving on the river is a c/f as is a Q so we are looking at 15-20 cards on the river we dont like.

Id go $3 and push any non diamond, queen etc

Similar to the hand i posted such a barf spot.

we are far more liekly to be beat in your spot

[Stacks]

I don't know about bet/folding turn here. I get that we expect villain's to typically be passive, and thus not shoving the turn here with worse too often. However, given pot odds, we would need 27% equity to call a shove from MP (obv not folding to shorty BU).

Against a range of all combos of QQ/JJ/55/QJ, we would only need him to be shoving with 5 combos of worse hands (like AQ) for us to have the needed equity to call (29% against that range).

Also it might not even be correct to give him all combos of those value hands. As it seems reasonable to assume he 3bets preflop with QQ/JJ with some frequency potentially, folds QJo with some frequency, and might raise flop 4 handed with QQ/JJ/55/QJ with some frequency as well.

Even with reduced combos of those value hands, is he still never shoving worse?

[Icanhastreebet]

Good argument stacks I still think you're wrong though but since he is fairly loose over a small sample we can probably eliminate QQ and I guess this might swing our decision to a b/c.

Anyway the biggest problem w/ this hand is still the raise sizing pre. It's going to cost you more money then any other decision you make after flop.

[Miffed22001]

I don't know about bet/folding turn here. I get that we expect villain's to typically be passive, and thus not shoving the turn here with worse too often. However, given pot odds, we would need 27% equity to call a shove from MP (obv not folding to shorty BU).

Against a range of all combos of QQ/JJ/55/QJ, we would only need him to be shoving with 5 combos of worse hands (like AQ) for us to have the needed equity to call (29% against that range).

Also it might not even be correct to give him all combos of those value hands. As it seems reasonable to assume he 3bets preflop with QQ/JJ with some frequency potentially, folds QJo with some frequency, and might raise flop 4 handed with QQ/JJ/55/QJ with some frequency as well.

Even with reduced combos of those value hands, is he still never shoving worse?

Take it one step further - surely the chance of us being raised on this turn given the ranges and the way they would likely play preflop is actually close to nil - only QJ/55 raise (and is there not even an arguement that neither raise the turn as they would have raised the flop) leaving only a range that calls the turn never shoves - AQ/AJ/A5 combo still call (espeically at these stakes)

Bikes - 100% with your assesment of the one i posted, just noting simiarity in the sense that my hands turn was dangerous this one isnt and do we get commited

Edit: is there any merit in stack-a-donk?