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  1. #1

    Default 10NL 45s BU

    Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

    SB: $13.50 (135 bb)
    BB: $8.22 (82.2 bb)
    UTG: $7.15 (71.5 bb)
    MP: $10.55 (105.5 bb)
    CO: $13.97 (139.7 bb)
    Hero (BTN): $13.79 (137.9 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BTN with 4 5
    3 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, SB raises to $1, BB folds, Hero calls $0.70

    Flop: ($2.10) 9 Q K (2 players)
    SB bets $1.40, Hero calls $1.40

    Turn: ($4.90) 9 (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero ??

    Villain is
    26/21, 23A%
    6.9% 3bet (4/58)
    16% 3bet from blinds (3/19)
    45% cbet (5/11)
    145 hands

    Whats your line here?

    I figure that this hand should be part of my 3b calling range pre? Probably the low end but still.

    I figure I've got pretty close to the right implied odds to call the FD here but then I may be wrong here as well.

    I'm just soo confused by his check here I figure this board hits his 3b pre range pretty hard so what can his checking range here look like?
    TT-JJ, AQ, + the one combo of 99, and 6 combos of QQ-KK that he might decide to slowplay here so a decently sized bet should fold out 24/31 combos of that range. This could be way off though and he might not ever fold a pair or he might c/c his top pairs and AA on the paired 9.

    Sorry I'm a bit fried right now so all that shit might not make any sense.

    Thoughts?
  2. #2
    The call pre is loose, but it's also the type of hand that villains wouldn't put you on. So, if you hit, it's likely to turn out well.

    OTT, I don't see the villain going for a check/raise or a slow play, but is likely scared of the nine. I would check behind and take the free card.

    OTR, the decisions are pretty straightforward based on whether or not you hit the flush.
  3. #3
    6.9% 3b, this is a fold pre.

    His range is very strong. He likely has AQ/AK/AA that could be just slowing down on board pairing, or QQ/KK that boated up and are checking.

    The probability of getting a turn fold here seems somewhat low. I would just take the free card.
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  4. #4
    You have 5 high dude - even if you think villain is getting out of line, this is an easy fold pre unless your opponent plays face up post-flop. That said, I'd be tempted by a cheeky 4bet bluff.

    As played, flop is fine. Check turn behind and I'd bet all rivers if checked to.
  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Bean Counter View Post
    You have 5 high dude
    no. we have some amount of equity and some amount of fold equity. saying we have 5 high is misleading because we have (as a guess) something like 28-30% equity vs a hand like A6hh, and we almost certainly have some (quite possibly small) amount of fold equity on the turn.
  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by rpm View Post
    no. we have some amount of equity and some amount of fold equity. saying we have 5 high is misleading because we have (as a guess) something like 28-30% equity vs a hand like A6hh, and we almost certainly have some (quite possibly small) amount of fold equity on the turn.
    Of course, but unless villain is hugely exploitable post flop or we play like god, there aren't many flops that we are happy with or can play profitably against a competent villain.

    54s is pretty much the worst hand in my 35% btn opening range with this villain sat in the blinds, so if I'm calling this rather than folding or 4bet bluffing, I'd struggle to think of any part of my range I'd fold.
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by The Bean Counter View Post
    Of course, but unless villain is hugely exploitable post flop or we play like god, there aren't many flops that we are happy with or can play profitably against a competent villain.

    54s is pretty much the worst hand in my 35% btn opening range with this villain sat in the blinds, so if I'm calling this rather than folding or 4bet bluffing, I'd struggle to think of any part of my range I'd fold.
    35% button opening range is really tight. Villain in this hand is a very mundane player (as far as has been described) and we know nothing about the other blind, so it seems crazy to assume we should have a really tight button opening range.

    That being said, villain is a pretty tight player, and I don't really think we're exploiting his preflop tendencies all that much by calling with a hand like this. Maybe if we thought we could exploit his cbetting tendencies, then we could call pre knowing that he would play face-up postflop. But, 1) this tendency is tracked over a very small sample, 2) we don't know how often he cbets when his range is strong, and 3) all of his other stats indicate that he is most likely the type of player who would cbet a lot, increasing the burden of statistical significance on his already low sample size.

    Just as a side note, if we were to call preflop in order to exploit this tendency, then the whole "the reason we called preflop is for this situation" logic would be silly, since we were calling to exploit a faceup range, not to start shoveling money into the pot once villain demonstrates that he has a hand he likes. I think the only person who used that logic was someone who had faith that villain would be cbetting a lot anyway, so this really is just an aside.

    CLIFFS: I'd fold pre. Stop focusing on your hand, and focus on how to exploit villain.
  8. #8
    Thanks all for the feedback and discussion. From what I gather the consensus is fold here pre, and if we're in this spot we're checking back the turn for max eV.

    Quote Originally Posted by surviva316 View Post
    CLIFFS: I'd fold pre. Stop focusing on your hand, and focus on how to exploit villain.
    So in order of exploit villain, what should our range look like here to continue?

    I'll throw out my ideas and hopefully someone will destroy my logic.

    Call: Like 77-JJ, AJs-AQs, AQo, KQs because these hands will play well vs. his range postflop and we'll often have the best hand at showdown.
    4bet value: QQ+, AKs, AKo because value.
    4bet bluff: ??

    I'm a bit at a loss ATM where the suited broadways should fit into my range here and what kind of range I should be 4bet bluffing if at all, so I'll have to start where we should always start, villain's range.


    Due to our small sample size lets assume that villain's 3b from blinds is 10% rather than 16%.

    So he's 3betting pre something like TT+, A9s+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KJo+ (138 combos)

    Lets assume he continues to a 4bet with something like JJ+, AQs+, AKo (44 combos)

    This gives us roughly 68% fold equity on a 4bet bluff. Say we 3x his raise to $3.

    (bet/(bet+pot)) = (2.7/(2.7+1.4)) = 0.66 = 66%

    Assuming my logic and math is correct this leaves us with a slightly +eV 4bet bluffing opportunity. Where I'm a bit lost is how often this means we should be 4bet bluffing? I'll do some looking around in the digest see if I can find anything relevant, but for now I'll finish off the rest of my range.

    I think that a lot of the suited broadways we can fit into the calling range as they'll flop well a lot of the time and play decently vs. villain's range. Or perhaps we should be folding the bottom of the suited connectors calling the top... maybe vice versa.

    Should we be polarizing the 4betting range in this spot? As in 4betting for value like QQ+, AK, then 4betting lower hands like suited connectors, say something like 67s-9Ts, 68s-8Ts?
    Last edited by mondayscool; 03-03-2013 at 09:48 PM.
  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by rpm View Post
    no. we have some amount of equity and some amount of fold equity. saying we have 5 high is misleading because we have (as a guess) something like 28-30% equity vs a hand like A6hh, and we almost certainly have some (quite possibly small) amount of fold equity on the turn.
    Villain has a 3b of 6.9%. If you stove 6.9%, villain has nothing close to a hand like A6s. Villain's range is like JJ+, AJ+, KQ,
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  10. #10
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    hmm i'd have thought the call pre was ok given suitedness/connectedness/position/stacks/villain will be "bluffing" a reasonable amount of the time/his low CB lets us take more turn cards than we should perhaps be able to.

    turn i like checking behind. saves us getting C/bombed by AK and we can still steal it from any (better) air he has in his range on the river because we will be checking back non-nut pair hands on this turn as well, planning to VB safe rivers when checked to
    Last edited by rpm; 03-01-2013 at 06:58 PM.
  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by rpm View Post
    turn i like checking behind. saves us getting C/bombed by AK and we can still steal it from any (better) air he has in his range on the river because we will be checking back non-nut pair hands on this turn as well, planning to VB safe rivers when checked to
    definately a good point in bold i think, i think i failed to consider what kind of range I should be betting here and checking back.

    It's probably better to bet total air ball floats OTT? Not that I would have many if any air with no equity vs. this player but it's just a thought.
  12. #12
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    also, for triple posts sake, i don't see why we are thinking this guy's range is weighted so strongly toward nuts. he's a 6m TAG regular who we have seen 3b 16% from this position (small sample i acknowledge). i haven't played 6m lower than 25nl, and i didn't put in much volume there, but surely regs are 3b bluffing vs other regs in LPvBlind and BvB situations at 10nl?
  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by rpm View Post
    but surely regs are 3b bluffing vs other regs in LPvBlind and BvB situations at 10nl?
    Well I know I do it and I know I've seen other regs do it so ya for sure
  14. #14
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    Not calling pre. Not calling flop.
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  15. #15
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    do you have 87ss in your flop range supa? if so, what do you do with it? the same? i'm new to the idea of folding flush draws on the flop to a single bet but i'm open to it.
  16. #16
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    87ss would be closer for me but I really don't think we have the equity. Better post flop players than myself might get away with calling. Villains cbet's pretty low so he isn't as wide on the flop as he was pre imo.
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  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by supa View Post
    Villains cbet's pretty low so he isn't as wide on the flop as he was pre imo.
    C-Bet % after a single raise or C-Bet % after a re-raise?

    If I call pre-flop, I'm not folding the flop and I would probably bet this turn.
  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fnord View Post
    C-Bet % after a single raise or C-Bet % after a re-raise?

    If I call pre-flop, I'm not folding the flop and I would probably bet this turn.
    Good point.

    Anyway, stoving his made hands still gives us better than the ~28% equity we need to call the flop but it really seems like a shitty spot to me. Like I said, better post flop players than me probably profit here.
    “Right thoughts produce right actions and right actions produce work which will be a material reflection for others to see of the serenity at the center of it all”

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  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by supa View Post
    Good point.

    Anyway, stoving his made hands still gives us better than the ~28% equity we need to call the flop but it really seems like a shitty spot to me. Like I said, better post flop players than me probably profit here.
    You need only 28% to call if the bet is all in, but for the price you pay on the flop you often get to see only one card.
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  20. #20
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    Call pre is really borderline imo, I wouldn't mind with 87s or 98s.

    You cannot rely on implied odds to justify the flop call, so you will either:
    - have to get a free card often ott (do you think he cbet bluffs a lot on this flop with his Axs or SC's, considering his low cbet% and that the flop hits your range hard?)
    - have to bluff either the flop or a later street

    As played I'd take the free card like most people above, you get two cards for a good price and if you bet the turn and get called or raised it's pretty much a disaster. If the river is blank and he checks again, consider a bet then imo.
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  21. #21
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    but we also have implied odds which we do not have when all-in
  22. #22
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    Implied odds with a flush are kinda limited imo
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  23. #23
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    I haven't seen anyone point out your massive reverse implied odds on the flop yet.
  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow View Post
    I haven't seen anyone point out your massive reverse implied odds on the flop yet.



    Why do we have reverse implied odds? It's a threebet pot. The guy is probably stacking off with TP+ and could easily have 2pair/set/straight/overpair.
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  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pelion View Post
    Why do we have reverse implied odds?
    Because we lose a significant amount of the time we hit our draw.
  26. #26
    We certainly have positive implied odds on the flop. If we hit our draw on the turn and get the money in, we will be way ahead of any reasonable calling range.

    Sets, KQ,TJ,AK,QQ+ will all probably stack after the flush card hits in a 3bet pot. We are 80%+ favorites against all of these.

    What range do you have to put him on before you figure we have reverse implied odds? Even if you add every possible combination of AsXs, we are still a big favorite when the money goes in.

    =========================================

    EV Calc:

    To simplify, lets consider only our 8 non-board-pairing flush outs.

    Miss Turn: Lose $1.40

    Hit Turn: Get the money in with 80% equity - our EV for getting it in is sum of 80% wins and 20% losses

    0.8*(2.10+1.40+11.10)-0.2*(1.40+11.10)

    = $9.18

    So we are betting $1.40 to win $9.18. Odds = 6.5:1. We will hit 8/47, so we only need 4.8:1. So we are at least calling.


    This calculation breaks down if we don't always get the money in when we hit, e.g. he is cbetting A2, but with hands like these we are very likely to be offered a free card anyway, in which case we have direct pot odds to call and hit.
    Last edited by Pelion; 03-03-2013 at 06:04 AM.
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  27. #27
    Dude, you have massive reverse implied odds.
  28. #28
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    fair call. guess i better adjust my assumptions about people with "reggy" stats at the micros
  29. #29
    a lot of his bluffing 3bet range pre will have Asxs or JsTs so we are getting owned a non 0 % of the time, which will definitely affect our implied odds.

    As for the hand i hate pre...as for the turn its kind of weird cause we do not rep shit aside from like AQ/air if we bet.
    Last edited by philly and the phanatics; 03-02-2013 at 11:54 PM.
  30. #30
    I have a wisdom tooth coming through at the moment and the combination of pain and painkillers is making it unwise to play poker, so FTR is my only hope for a poker fix today. With that in mind...

    Sure it will affect them. But we are getting 2.5:1 pot odds. It will have to affect them in a pretty huge way before our effective odds are less than that (AKA reverse implied odds). We would need to have less than 60% allin equity after we hit.

    Im not a fan of calling preflop either, but once we do, folding out of a fear of reverse implied odds seems like a huge mistake. I can't imagine we ever have less than 72% equity when we get it in on the turn, and the bonus free card some of the time we miss improves the situation even more.




    Last edited by Pelion; 03-03-2013 at 05:55 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pelion View Post

    Im not a fan of calling preflop either, but once we do, folding out of a fear of reverse implied odds seems like a huge mistake. I can't imagine we ever have less than 72% equity when we get it in on the turn, and the bonus free card some of the time we miss improves the situation even more.




    Do you account for rake? Also the fact that we have terrible reverse implied odds isn't a reason to fold post at this point(in this case). It's a reason to fold pre.

    Also there is so much flawed logic in this thread that it would probably take a day just to pick it all apart. Chances are if you said X is a good reason to call pre it's probably terrible logic and you should try to forget about it.
    Last edited by Icanhastreebet; 03-03-2013 at 08:32 AM.
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  32. #32
    Yeah no arguments about folding pre. We don't have enough implied odds pre given that his 3bet from the blinds is fairly wide.

    One other thing we need to consider preflop is that, while we have decent equity against a 3betting range, a lot of it is by making a pair of 5s and folding it against AJ on a K59 flop.

    Rake isn't included above and is a good point, but only increases the equity we need when allin to 75% (we only win $13.50). I still think we are closer to 80% and flop is a clear call as played especially when we are likely to get a free card sometimes. On the other hand, how close this is on just about our dream flop very nicely illustrates how shitty a spot it is to call preflop unless we have a very good read and plan of how to win the pot the times we flop nothing.
    Last edited by Pelion; 03-03-2013 at 09:28 AM.
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  33. #33
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    btw i asked m2m a question along these lines (balance vs exploitation) in his AMA thread and he gave a pretty good answer if you want to check that
  34. #34
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    as for your ranges i probably add some suited connectors (though perhaps not as low a 54s after this thread ha) to your pre calling range because i'm assuming villain's bluffing enough pre for us to lighten our calling range up a tad (adding in hands with heaps of postflop playability).

    the best hands to 4b bluff (assuming villain never cold-calls and you plan to 4bet polarised) will be the ones that block the hands in the range villain will shove. the hands actual pot equity doesn't matter because if we are 4betting polarised then the "bluff" part of the range will never be shown down anyway). how many combos though is up to you.
  35. #35
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    If you're going to 4b bluff at all, do it with hands that have blockers like Axs (as rpm already said).

    By this token, AK is the best 4b-bluff hand there is as it blocks AA and KK a lot (cuts the AA and KK combos out there from 12 to 6) and you can get folds from a lot of PP's and possibly from AK as well.

    It'd be a mistake to consider AK as only a value 4b hand imo. Actually it only is a value 4b against a villain who would continue with AQ or worse. In the ranges that you gave to villain, if you were holding AK, there would be only 3 combos of AQs which would continue while you get folds from 6 combos of TT...

    Since there are a lot of combos of AK compared to the number of combos in your 4b value range, I would think that having only AK in your 4b bluffing range would probably not be a mistake against reasonable villains. Of course you have to adjust this against opps who 3b bluff a lot.
    Last edited by daviddem; 03-04-2013 at 02:14 AM.
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  36. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by daviddem View Post
    It'd be a mistake to consider AK as only a value 4b hand imo. Actually it only is a value 4b against a villain who would continue with AQ or worse. In the ranges that you gave to villain, if you were holding AK, there would be only 3 combos of AQs which would continue while you get folds from 6 combos of TT...
    I don't play these games, but i have to figure if people are 3betting TT then they likely aren't folding to a 4b very often. If you 're tight enough that they would consider folding TT to your 4b, then they probably wouldn't 3b TT vs you in the first place I would imagine.
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  37. #37
    Also, consider that 4b'ing any Ax that isn't good enough to flat is 15% even before adding other value hands. That's going to be too high a lot of the time, so you'll have to be choosy about dynamics or pick a few lucky numbers or something to keep yourself in check.
  38. #38
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    We've been talking a lot about 3bet/4bet/5bet ranges in IRC. Our in-chat equity calculator has been very helpful for this.
  39. #39
    Supposedly cull can mean to select out of a group (eg: culled the best passages from the poet's works) OR it can mean to control the size of something by reducing the weakest. What a silly fucking language this is that we speak. Anyway, I meant we would 4b bluff in the most profitable situations.
  40. #40
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    Call pre is fine, but maybe a fold with uncapped 5% rake. Turn I'd bet planning to shove all rivers that aren't 9 through King. Based on your description he seems like a somewhat good player and I'd give him credit for c/c c/fing quite a few pair+draw type hands here. I think checking the turn is fine also. Given his low cbet stat he might not be very trustworthy for betting AK+ on the turn and it sucks for us to get c/r off this. That said all we have is a low flush draw on a paired board so that doesn't concern me so much.
  41. #41
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    I think at 5/10nl it happens regularly that people 3b/f small/medium pp from the blinds vs a LP open.

    Some will set mine, but against a weak LP range and OOP, set mining is not really ideal.
    Last edited by daviddem; 03-08-2013 at 07:23 AM.
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  42. #42
    Sure small pairs I agree, 22-66 makes sense. At some point this range goes from '3betting because it's not good enough to call with', to 'enough equity to flat' to 'I'm 3betting for value, with the intention of getting all-in'.

    So I guess I'm saying that a hand like TT will either be flatted pre for it's value, or 3b/5b pre for it's value, but 3b/folding..TT seems a bit strong for that. Unless villain is some whale that calls all 3bets with horrible hands and 4bets like 1%, or some scenario like that.

    But now we're going way off topic.

    On this turn, I think villain's range has too many strong hands that will either c/c or c/r that we should be at least taking our free card. If we river our flush and he leads I'm flatting, or b/f.
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