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1010 UTG <5NL> Facing fop aggression

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nonofyobiz

05-04-2010, 02:51 AM Post subject: 1010 UTG <5NL> Facing fop aggression

#1 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Sep 2009

Location: Calgary

Posts: 158

Villian is 12/3 over 33

It's only 33 hands but I think I can assume he isn't super loose.
When I get raised on this flop should I automatically be thinking set?
Sure he could have smooth called with QQ+ and done that, can't imagine a two pair hand here.

So what should be my next move be? If I'm betting what should my sizing be; I assume if I raise here I'm committing my stack either here or on turn.
Can I just c/c this down?

I'll put a range on him here

22, 44, 77, 88, 99, TT+, AK (he may think I'm bluffing)

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.119% 53.22% 00.90% 64704528 1089755.00 { TcTd }
Hand 1: 45.881% 44.98% 00.90% 54689546 1089755.00 { 77+, 44, 22, AKs, AKo }

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

MP2 ($8.99)
MP3 ($17.13)
VILLIAN (CO) ($5)
Button ($5.61)
SB ($12.45)
BB ($3.91)
Hero (UTG) ($5)
UTG+1 ($5.82)
MP1 ($3.90)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 10

, 10

Hero bets $0.20, 4 folds, VILLIAN calls $0.20, 2 folds, BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.62) 7

, 4

, 2

(3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.55, VILLIAN raises to $1.10, 1 fold

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daven

05-04-2010, 03:37 AM

#2 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up

Posts: 5,805

you messed up the poker-stove, you forgot to add the board. Do it again and you;ll find you're about 45% dog, not 55% favourite, even against this optimistic range you've given villain.

snap fold vs a nit. Even on that tiny sample you can see he's unlikely to like betting, meaning he's even less likely to be raising without a hand he perceives to be nut = a hand that beats TT most of the time here...

now take half the AKo combos out and see what happens to your equity. Even adding 78s and 67s to his range doesn't help you much..

don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/

rpm

05-04-2010, 08:33 AM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: learnin'

Posts: 2,039

overpairs OOP facing minraises is a pretty rank spot at these low stakes but i think that for the most part, if your villain seems to be remotely sane, they're not exploiting you by minraising any low board that misses a shitload of your range. barring reads that he likes to raise middlish overpairs on flops to see where he's at, i probably fold here. the range below is pretty optimistic, and i'm guessing your equity is actually worse.i've found a few guys that habitually minraise flush draws, but it's not everyone. and going on this guy's nitty preflop aggression, he's likely not one of them.
anywho:

Board: 7c 4c 2s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.726% 40.50% 01.22% 15638 472.50 { TcTd }
Hand 1: 58.274% 57.05% 01.22% 22027 472.50 { QQ-77, 44, 22, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, KcQc, KcJc }

doesn't look TOO bad here but bear in mind this is an optimistic range, and you're OOP with a hand which becomes very vulnerable in a bloated pot against a nit.

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1010 UTG <5NL> Facing fop aggression

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