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10 NL: AJs vs. Loose Villain

  
 
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Cougar
Old 06-30-2009, 03:26 PM     Post subject: 10 NL: AJs vs. Loose Villain #1 (permalink)  
Straight

Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Pennsylvania
Posts: 121
Cougar
Villain is 47/13/2.4 over 118 hands
Made some really loose call of J4o in SB on 4xbb bet from CO and called good sized bet on river with MPLK

Once we miss our flush draw on river, is the read enough to call the river on what seems like a very strong line?

I took a very passive line to get value from a pretty loosey-goosey villain, suggestions on better way to play this hand against this villain?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($10)
UTG ($12.85)
UTG+1 ($1.95)
MP1 ($9.20)
MP2 ($8.25)
MP3 ($10.15)
CO ($10.35)
Button ($5.35)
SB ($7.80)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, J
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, MP3 bets $0.20, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.10, MP2 raises to $0.30, MP3 calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.95) 7, 10, J (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $0.75, MP3 calls $0.75, Hero calls $0.75

Turn: ($3.20) 10 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $2

River: ($7.20) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $4, Hero ???
------------------------
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Old 07-01-2009, 08:09 AM #2 (permalink)  
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so a limp/reraise pre is usually one of the following:
1) nuts
2) random shit

and it's actually pretty evenly distributed
and it of course depends on what the villain considers the nuts
some fish think AJo is the nuts and will min3b preflop so as not to scare you away since they have two good cards
but we'll say he either has:
JJ+,AK or trash in equal proportions
so on the flop he is possibly betting all of his range
but on the turn he's probably only betting:
Tx, JJ+, 77, Jx, XdYd, XcYc, 89, bluffs
on the river I would guess he's betting
Tx, JJ+, 77, XdYd, 9x because he would check a jack back and few bluffs

we're getting really good odds, though, we need to win slightly over 26% of the time to make this call
so call if you think he's stupid enough to bet three pair hands like J8/J7/78 or he bets a random jack because shit, top pair
otherwise it just looks like he has what he's repping
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