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[6-Max] 20NL: Line Check W/ Flopped 2pair -> Boat

  
 
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Bradley
Old 09-15-2009, 04:09 PM     Post subject: [6-Max] 20NL: Line Check W/ Flopped 2pair -> Boat #1 (permalink)  
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Villain was 44/33/15 over 44 hands.

AF was 5. Hadn't seen him fold to c-bets yet. He's positionally aware and likes stealing/protecting his own blinds, probably knows my CO range is fairly wide.

I know the flop bet size is fine(could be potsized), but should I be calling his turn raise? I'm not 100% sure he's floating on this board. and I'm also not too sure wether he's gonna raise his turned flush here..doubt it.
Checked the river as I was pretty sure he was gonna bet his entire range here, so I went for c/shove instead of a value bet.

Anyways, as played, do we call, shove or fold his turn raise?

If called, do we shove river or bet a little less to get more weaker hands to call? I'm guessing most flushes, trips etc, won't fold and air folds anyway, so a shove is right?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($20.67)
BB ($11)
UTG ($20)
Hero (MP) ($35.31)
Button ($65.52)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 7, 8
1 fold, Hero bets $0.60, Button calls $0.60, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.50) 7, A, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.30, Button calls $1.30

Turn: ($4.10) K (2 players)
Hero bets $2.70, Button raises $6.40, Hero calls $3.70

River: ($16.90) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $9.80, Hero raises $27.01 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $36.50
 
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Carroters
Old 09-15-2009, 11:02 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 Fold turn. He probably doesn't ever raise worse for value and I have a hard time putting enough bluffs in his range to make a call profitable when we have lilkely 4 outs.

Essentially, once he raises, your hand becomes a bluff catcher and without reads that he likes to float flops and raise turns as a bluff we just don't have the equity needed to call.

B/F is an awesome line to take in so many spots at these stakes. I think this is one of them.

 
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Old 09-15-2009, 11:10 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Fold turn. He probably doesn't ever raise worse for value and I have a hard time putting enough bluffs in his range to make a call profitable when we have lilkely 4 outs.

Essentially, once he raises, your hand becomes a bluff catcher and without reads that he likes to float flops and raise turns as a bluff we just don't have the equity needed to call.


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surviva316
Old 09-15-2009, 11:51 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 the best hand we beat on the turn is AQ. just about half of A9-AQ combinations include a heart, and we have <50% equity against A9-AQ hands that include a heart. soooo yeah, you definitely have a bluff catcher hand.

i think you're probably overestimating how often villain is bluff at this board because even a completely braindead poker player can see that you're repping a whole lot on this board that isn't gonna fold to a raise here. if he is bluffing, i think he's usually doing it with outs, so his bluffs aren't gonna be nearly enough to give us the right equity to continue.

and oh by the way, we still have the river left and we're gonna be OOP against an aggressive player (one who's betting the river enough for you to think that it's more profitable to c/r for value rather then vbet), so even if we had the right equityot odds ratio, we're prone to be poned
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Bradley
Old 09-16-2009, 04:22 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by surviva316
the best hand we beat on the turn is AQ. just about half of A9-AQ combinations include a heart, and we have <50% equity against A9-AQ hands that include a heart. soooo yeah, you definitely have a bluff catcher hand.

i think you're probably overestimating how often villain is bluff at this board because even a completely braindead poker player can see that you're repping a whole lot on this board that isn't gonna fold to a raise here. if he is bluffing, i think he's usually doing it with outs, so his bluffs aren't gonna be nearly enough to give us the right equity to continue.

and oh by the way, we still have the river left and we're gonna be OOP against an aggressive player (one who's betting the river enough for you to think that it's more profitable to c/r for value rather then vbet), so even if we had the right equityot odds ratio, we're prone to be poned
The bolded part is so true. That is my biggest leak so far, I think.

My red line is positive and my blue line is negative. My W$SD is like 44% which is bad, even though I have a small sample at this game/stake(4.5k hands).
I think I'm suffering from the "i think he's bluffing syndrome" which I should get out of my head. Immediately.

Thanks for replies !
 
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surviva316
Old 09-16-2009, 04:39 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 btw, maybe the most important thing you could do in response to this hand is to stand up and take the open seat at the table (assuming it's 6-handed). you can eat this player alive if you have position on him, but having him directly to your left is going to lead to a lot of really difficult spots and -EV decisions
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