[2NL] 2P against possible flush?

**Cobra_1878** · 08-16-2012 06:21 PM

Not much to go on as it was early in the session. I had seen him limp/call with AJo UTG OOP, and he had called raises in a couple of hands with KJo & K8o

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($1.66)
BB ($2.74)
UTG ($1.40)
MP ($2.24)
Hero (CO) ($2)
Button ($2.41)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A

, Q

UTG calls $0.02, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.08, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.19) 5

, A

, 10

(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.12, UTG calls $0.12

Turn: ($0.43) Q

(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.28, UTG calls $0.28

River: ($0.99) 7

(2 players)
UTG bets $0.92 (All-In), Hero ???

Has he hit a flush there? I think I probably should have bet more on the Turn after hitting 2P but always worry about straights when hitting 2P with broadway cards ( is that too cautious? ) Have I priced him in all the way to continue on a FD?

**Miffed22001** · 08-16-2012 06:45 PM

really close - but not a great price

Looks like KQspades but AT/Qt are big factors too

Dont get the open river push - that line makes me want to call a lot

**OngBonga** · 08-16-2012 06:50 PM

I'd like to say fold but this is 2nl and I'm lying if I say I fold this. Can't call fast enough at these stakes. Yeah obv he has a flush often here, he also has A7 A5 AT and god knows what else because he's a 2nl limp/call donkey.

**bikes** · 08-17-2012 01:40 AM

fold button is on the left

**surviva316** · 08-17-2012 07:53 PM

How did he play postflop in the KJ/K8/AJo hands? This type of read affects everything down to why we're iso'ing (ie, what amount we should make the iso) in the first place. I mean, we're iso'ing regardless, but it's nice to know why and with what plan for exploitation.

I bet bigger on this flop, but this sizing's fine as there is a wide range of hands we beat that might call or fold depending on sizing.

Definitely bet turn bigger.

As played, just fold. If he felt like he had a hand he wanted to value bet for stacks on the turn, then he probably would have either shoved then to protect or he would just c/c down to trap us. I don't know why he would all the sudden decide to PSB donk on a card that kills his action.

So that mostly discounts value bets. From there you just have to decide if he's bluffing 33% of the time here. I'm guessing not.

**Cobra_1878** · 08-17-2012 08:21 PM

Originally Posted by surviva316

How did he play postflop in the KJ/K8/AJo hands? This type of read affects everything down to why we're iso'ing (ie, what amount we should make the iso) in the first place. I mean, we're iso'ing regardless, but it's nice to know why and with what plan for exploitation.

I bet bigger on this flop, but this sizing's fine as there is a wide range of hands we beat that might call or fold depending on sizing.

Definitely bet turn bigger.

As played, just fold. If he felt like he had a hand he wanted to value bet for stacks on the turn, then he probably would have either shoved then to protect or he would just c/c down to trap us. I don't know why he would all the sudden decide to PSB donk on a card that kills his action.

So that mostly discounts value bets. From there you just have to decide if he's bluffing 33% of the time here. I'm guessing not.

Sorry if this sounds stupid but how do you figure I have to decide if he is bluffing 33% of the time? How do you come up with that figure?

**OngBonga** · 08-17-2012 10:19 PM

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

Sorry if this sounds stupid but how do you figure I have to decide if he is bluffing 33% of the time? How do you come up with that figure?

We're getting 2:1 on our money, or thereabouts. That means we have to win 33% of the time to break even. Work it out... call three times, win it once, lose twice, what's our net profit?

2:1 is another way of saying 1 in 3, or 33%.

But surviva, does he have A7 in his range? I think so. So we don't need him to be bluffing as often as 33%, so long as there's hands we beat that he can do this with for value.

**Cobra_1878** · 08-17-2012 11:12 PM

Originally Posted by OngBonga

We're getting 2:1 on our money, or thereabouts. That means we have to win 33% of the time to break even. Work it out... call three times, win it once, lose twice, what's our net profit?

2:1 is another way of saying 1 in 3, or 33%.

But surviva, does he have A7 in his range? I think so. So we don't need him to be bluffing as often as 33%, so long as there's hands we beat that he can do this with for value.

Ah OK, thanks a lot. The problem with this is, all 2NL tables are set at fast speed so you get roughly 10 seconds to decide what to do. I don't think I could work that out quickly enough ( if it was a bit more difficult ) to decide what to do.

**OngBonga** · 08-17-2012 11:27 PM

Well here's a pro tip for you... if someone bets the pot HU, you have 2:1.

**Cobra_1878** · 08-17-2012 11:29 PM

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Well here's a pro tip for you... if someone bets the pot HU, you have 2:1.

Haha, thanks, I will make sure I remember that one.

08-16-2012 06:21 PM #1
Cobra_1878 View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jul 2012 Posts 641 Location Plymouth, England. Originally from Liverpool	[2NL] 2P against possible flush? Not much to go on as it was early in the session. I had seen him limp/call with AJo UTG OOP, and he had called raises in a couple of hands with KJo & K8o PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com SB ($1.66) BB ($2.74) UTG ($1.40) MP ($2.24) Hero (CO) ($2) Button ($2.41) Preflop: Hero is CO with A, Q UTG calls $0.02, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.08, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.06 Flop: ($0.19) 5, A, 10 (2 players) UTG checks, Hero bets $0.12, UTG calls $0.12 Turn: ($0.43) Q (2 players) UTG checks, Hero bets $0.28, UTG calls $0.28 River: ($0.99) 7 (2 players) UTG bets $0.92 (All-In), Hero ??? Has he hit a flush there? I think I probably should have bet more on the Turn after hitting 2P but always worry about straights when hitting 2P with broadway cards ( is that too cautious? ) Have I priced him in all the way to continue on a FD?

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08-16-2012 06:45 PM #2
Miffed22001 View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jun 2005 Posts 10,440 Location Marry Me Cheryl!!!	really close - but not a great price Looks like KQspades but AT/Qt are big factors too Dont get the open river push - that line makes me want to call a lot

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08-16-2012 06:50 PM #3
OngBonga View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jul 2010 Posts 5,304 Location England	I'd like to say fold but this is 2nl and I'm lying if I say I fold this. Can't call fast enough at these stakes. Yeah obv he has a flush often here, he also has A7 A5 AT and god knows what else because he's a 2nl limp/call donkey.
	Originally Posted by wufwugy ongies gonna ong
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08-17-2012 01:40 AM #4
bikes View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message i roll up Join Date Nov 2007 Posts 6,219 Location house	fold button is on the left

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08-17-2012 07:53 PM #5
surviva316 View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Visit Homepage Join Date Feb 2009 Posts 2,797 Location missing deadlines, pissing people off, frustrating myself	How did he play postflop in the KJ/K8/AJo hands? This type of read affects everything down to why we're iso'ing (ie, what amount we should make the iso) in the first place. I mean, we're iso'ing regardless, but it's nice to know why and with what plan for exploitation. I bet bigger on this flop, but this sizing's fine as there is a wide range of hands we beat that might call or fold depending on sizing. Definitely bet turn bigger. As played, just fold. If he felt like he had a hand he wanted to value bet for stacks on the turn, then he probably would have either shoved then to protect or he would just c/c down to trap us. I don't know why he would all the sudden decide to PSB donk on a card that kills his action. So that mostly discounts value bets. From there you just have to decide if he's bluffing 33% of the time here. I'm guessing not.
	Once upon a time, in some out of the way corner of that universe which is dispersed into numberless twinkling solar systems, there was a star upon which clever beasts invented knowing.
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[2NL] 2P against possible flush?

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08-17-2012 08:21 PM #6
Cobra_1878 View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jul 2012 Posts 641 Location Plymouth, England. Originally from Liverpool	Originally Posted by surviva316 How did he play postflop in the KJ/K8/AJo hands? This type of read affects everything down to why we're iso'ing (ie, what amount we should make the iso) in the first place. I mean, we're iso'ing regardless, but it's nice to know why and with what plan for exploitation. I bet bigger on this flop, but this sizing's fine as there is a wide range of hands we beat that might call or fold depending on sizing. Definitely bet turn bigger. As played, just fold. If he felt like he had a hand he wanted to value bet for stacks on the turn, then he probably would have either shoved then to protect or he would just c/c down to trap us. I don't know why he would all the sudden decide to PSB donk on a card that kills his action. So that mostly discounts value bets. From there you just have to decide if he's bluffing 33% of the time here. I'm guessing not. Sorry if this sounds stupid but how do you figure I have to decide if he is bluffing 33% of the time? How do you come up with that figure?

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08-17-2012 10:19 PM #7
OngBonga View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jul 2010 Posts 5,304 Location England	Originally Posted by Cobra_1878 Sorry if this sounds stupid but how do you figure I have to decide if he is bluffing 33% of the time? How do you come up with that figure? We're getting 2:1 on our money, or thereabouts. That means we have to win 33% of the time to break even. Work it out... call three times, win it once, lose twice, what's our net profit? 2:1 is another way of saying 1 in 3, or 33%. But surviva, does he have A7 in his range? I think so. So we don't need him to be bluffing as often as 33%, so long as there's hands we beat that he can do this with for value.
	Originally Posted by wufwugy ongies gonna ong
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08-17-2012 11:12 PM #8
Cobra_1878 View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jul 2012 Posts 641 Location Plymouth, England. Originally from Liverpool	Originally Posted by OngBonga We're getting 2:1 on our money, or thereabouts. That means we have to win 33% of the time to break even. Work it out... call three times, win it once, lose twice, what's our net profit? 2:1 is another way of saying 1 in 3, or 33%. But surviva, does he have A7 in his range? I think so. So we don't need him to be bluffing as often as 33%, so long as there's hands we beat that he can do this with for value. Ah OK, thanks a lot. The problem with this is, all 2NL tables are set at fast speed so you get roughly 10 seconds to decide what to do. I don't think I could work that out quickly enough ( if it was a bit more difficult ) to decide what to do.

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08-17-2012 11:27 PM #9
OngBonga View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jul 2010 Posts 5,304 Location England	Well here's a pro tip for you... if someone bets the pot HU, you have 2:1.
	Last edited by OngBonga; 08-17-2012 at 11:30 PM. Originally Posted by wufwugy ongies gonna ong
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08-17-2012 11:29 PM #10
Cobra_1878 View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jul 2012 Posts 641 Location Plymouth, England. Originally from Liverpool	Originally Posted by OngBonga Well here's a pro tip for you... if someone bets the pot HU, you have 2:1. Haha, thanks, I will make sure I remember that one.

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