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$25NL: flopped top set

  
 
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sarbox68
Old 05-19-2009, 08:31 PM     Post subject: $25NL: flopped top set #1 (permalink)  
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sarbox68
Vil is 20/15/2.3 over 20K. 3bet 7%. Agg by street is 35/30/20 w/ 51% W$SD. Win rate over 20K hands is 7BB/100. Part of what f-ked me up on this one was that I've been pushing this guy around for a little bit... 3bet him twice, which he called and folded to a CB... a couple of other folds to CBets. Haven't shown down against him yet. So part of me is thinking his flop raise is a bit of an f-k you push back. I've also seen him chk/raise a Fl cbet 3x w/ just an OESD on a 3 flush board. So he's capable of bluffing.

With all that in mind, I think his Flop chk/raise includes SCs that give him a made flush (vs which I have 8-outs twice to boat), some AQ,AK,AJ,KQ,KJ that could give him a 4-flush draw, JT and maybe slow-played AA or QQ PF, 77 or 88-JJ w/a club. Also some random crap that well, he's just tired of me poking him.

I didn't shove the flop 'cause I wanted to see if a club hit, and if it didn't figured I'd just bomb the turn -- if it did, I could still get away from it. Bad decision?

The Turn bet size doesn't smell like a made flush and I don't want to give him odds to draw to one for the River so shove. I realize the straight now came in, but think there's enough stuff still in his range that I beat (AK,AQ,QQ,77,FD), with 11 outs if he is in w/ JT.

1) Should I have 4-bet or shoved the flop?
2) Was the Turn push right?
3) are my ranges too wide for him?



Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($25.10)
BB ($86.92)
UTG ($24.30)
MP ($26.37)
CO ($25)
Hero (Button) ($25.13)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, K
3 folds, Hero bets $0.85, 1 fold, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) K, Q, 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.80, BB raises to $6.50, Hero calls $4.70

Turn: ($14.80) A (2 players)
BB bets $5.25, Hero raises to $17.78 (All-In), BB calls $12.53

River: ($50.36) 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $50.36 | Rake: $2.51
 
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dranger7070
Old 05-19-2009, 11:09 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I just 3bet the flop, and see if he's willing to get it in here. If he just flats, I'm getting it in on pretty much every non-club turn. With sets on a 3 flush board, I don't like seeing many turns without getting it in. Once you see the turn, you're equity takes a decent cut.
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kmind
Old 05-19-2009, 11:53 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 1. Where can you 4bet? Regardless, just shove the flop as he can have worse for sure and sometimes a made flush in which we have outs.
2. Yes it was right. A isn't great but it's not horrible either.
3. I like your range but would definitely discount the monsters a lot if he's any good.
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