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$25NL 160bbs 3bet pot 2pair

  
 
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Duck Hunter
Old 08-06-2010, 11:30 PM     Post subject: $25NL 160bbs 3bet pot 2pair #1 (permalink)  
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 $25NL 6max Bodog, no converter as I haven't got the handgrabber yet, sorry!

Villain has been fairly active preflop, isolating the limper he has position on often. I've not seen many of his showdowns, but did notice when villain was isolating a limper he raised to $1.10, and normally opened for $0.85, but saw him open once for $1.20 with KK, so perhaps his raises are a bit bigger with bigger hands, perhaps not.
I've not had much chance to 3bet him, rubbish cards and playing a little tighter cos I've just moved up.

Villain has $41.68 I cover

Preflop, Hero otb has
Fold, Villain raises $0.85, fold, Hero raises $2.90, fold, fold, villain calls

Flop ($6.15)
Villain checks, hero bets $4.50, villain raises $14.00, hero?

$9.50 to hero, and nearly a full buy in behind after that.

Preflop?
Yeah I got a bit lost on this one, probably should have thought of a plan before 3betting him!
What to do on flop and plan for the rest of the hand?
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StarGrinder
Old 08-06-2010, 11:48 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 I guess a good thing to consider is would he continue with AQ here OOP vs a 3bet? What about AK? You have blockers for AA and JJ and he'd probably 4-bet with AA being OOP. KT seems unlikely since I doubt he'd continue with this either. KcQc maybe. I'd put AK/AKs/QQ at the top of his range, JJ and AQ as less likely and a rare KQs, AJ, QJ, KT. Run these numbers through stove or come up with a range of your own and see if it's +EV to ship it in.
 
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Duck Hunter
Old 08-07-2010, 12:30 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 StarGrinder thanks for the reply.

Stoving my hand vs AK/AKs/QQ gives me 47.9%, adding in all the extra hands gives me 47.6%, although QJ seems much more unlikely than JJ & AQ, removing QJ gives me 36.7%
I'm sure he'd flat JJ here, especially as we are deepish, but I have blockers as you said so there's only one combo left anyway, doesn't change much, neither does AA.

Board: Ac Jc Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.726% 27.21% 09.51% 6196 2166.50 { AsJh }
Hand 1: 63.274% 53.76% 09.51% 12241 2166.50 { QQ, JdJs, AJs+, KcQc, AJo+ }

So I'm somewhere between 48% and 36%, I have 38bbs to call in a pot of ~100bbs, with another ~100 bbs behind, soooooooo its just a matter of working out the numbers no?

138bbs (38 to call plus 100 behind) / 338 (total pot size) = 41% is that right?

So I just have to work out which side of the 48%-36% I'm at to decide whether to ship?
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Hoopy
Old 08-07-2010, 08:14 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Hoopy is an unknown quantity at this point
 Any reads on his 3betting tendencies?

I wouldn't 3bet pre with AJ in this spot unless he never folds any of his opening range to a 3bet or if there were heavy squeezers in the blinds. By flatting we keep more of the hands we dominate in the pot (JT,QJ,AT etc) and can exploit him postflop in position.
 
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Duck Hunter
Old 08-07-2010, 09:46 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 Not worried about the blinds squeezing, they're both passive fish so are more likely to overcall if anything.
This is the first chance I've had the option to either 3bet or flat him without bluffing, but he's been raising fairly often pre.

Quote:
By flatting we keep more of the hands we dominate in the pot (JT,QJ,AT etc) and can exploit him postflop in position.
Gottit cheers
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Donachello
Old 08-07-2010, 01:53 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 Fold. It'd be a tougher laydown with AQ. But the only hand you should be ahead of right now if villain is at all intelligent is AcKc
[00:29] <daven> dc, why not check turn behind
[00:30] <DC> daven
[00:30] <DC> on my hand?
[00:30] <daven> yep
[00:30] <DC> because I am drunk
[00:30] <daven> nice reason
[00:30] <daven> no further questions
[00:30] <yaawn> ^^Lol

Problem officer...?
 
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