Poker Forum

Over 1,246,000 Posts!

REGISTER
Subscribe to FTR web feed
Already Registered?      Username:    Password:   Remember      Forgot Password

Poker Forum

  > 

Beginners Circle

  > 

$10nl jam turn?

  
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
Micro2Macro
Old 05-27-2009, 12:37 AM     Post subject: $10nl jam turn? #1 (permalink)  
Micro2Macro's Avatar
Moderator

Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
Posts: 4,463
Micro2Macro is a jewel in the roughMicro2Macro is a jewel in the roughMicro2Macro is a jewel in the rough
 Villain is 21/7 over 70 hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($2)
MP3 ($11)
CO ($9.20)
Hero (Button) ($12.45)
SB ($12.60)
BB ($6.75)
UTG ($13.05)
UTG+1 ($5.65)
MP1 ($11.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, A
UTG calls $0.10, UTG+1 calls $0.10, MP1 calls $0.10, 3 folds, Hero bets $0.80, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.70, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.95) 9, 8, 5 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.30, UTG+1 calls $1.30

Turn: ($4.55) K (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero?

Flop bet ok?
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
Reply With Quote

Play for FREE and practice your game at...

Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
Illfavor
Old 05-27-2009, 01:57 AM #2 (permalink)  
Illfavor's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Denton, TX
Posts: 1,152
Illfavor will become famous soon enough
Send a message via AIM to Illfavor Send a message via Skype™ to Illfavor
 Check turn and c/f all rivers.

Or shove.
Ich grolle nicht...
 
Reply With Quote
siltstrider
Old 05-27-2009, 02:38 AM #3 (permalink)  
3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 85
siltstrider
Why don't we make another 2/3 pot bet? I think he would call with worse, and it's easy to fold if he raises you. Then check behind river.

Why are the turn options just check and shove?
Reply With Quote
Micro2Macro
Old 05-27-2009, 02:41 AM #4 (permalink)  
Micro2Macro's Avatar
Moderator

Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
Posts: 4,463
Micro2Macro is a jewel in the roughMicro2Macro is a jewel in the roughMicro2Macro is a jewel in the rough
 Okay I realize I didn't really put any effort into analyzing this hand on my own before posting, which unfortunately is a poor mistake.

I quickly posted it right before stepping out and it was pretty arrogant of me to do so, so if any further comments can be withheld for the time being I will re-bump this thread after I give an analysis of my own, and then you guys can review my analysis and see if you feel I've made some mistakes.

-m2m
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
Reply With Quote
Ragnar4
Old 05-27-2009, 02:58 AM #5 (permalink)  
Ragnar4's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
Ragnar4 will become famous soon enoughRagnar4 will become famous soon enough
Send a message via MSN to Ragnar4
Range: PP's up to 88 a6s, k7s A9o-AQo T9s+ A9s+ The a9s hands don't make sense.

Without any reads beyond stats, I think this is a pretty standard "get out of it cheap" sort of situation.

I don't like the flop bet either, the more draws that are present, the larger your bet should be, thus causing your c-bet to tend closer to pot than not. Especially against such a loose range.

Jamming turn is bad, nothing you beat calls.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
Reply With Quote
Ragnar4
Old 05-27-2009, 03:18 AM #6 (permalink)  
Ragnar4's Avatar
Full House

Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
Ragnar4 will become famous soon enoughRagnar4 will become famous soon enough
Send a message via MSN to Ragnar4
^^ I have been informed that this range sucks balls. Please do not put any faith in it.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
Reply With Quote
Micro2Macro
Old 05-27-2009, 03:39 AM #7 (permalink)  
Micro2Macro's Avatar
Moderator

Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
Posts: 4,463
Micro2Macro is a jewel in the roughMicro2Macro is a jewel in the roughMicro2Macro is a jewel in the rough
 Let's see what we think he'll call with on the flop:

Running the following range through stove shows us we have about 60% equity vs villains calling range on the flop.

Board: 9s 8s 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.229% 58.84% 00.39% 32036 214.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 40.771% 40.38% 00.39% 21986 214.00 { JJ-88, 55, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, A9s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, QsJs, QsTs, JTs, 98s, A9o, JTo }

Now on to the turn:

Villain checked the turn, so he still has all of his range that he called a bet on the flop, however, he may start folding out some of his hands if we bet:

Board: 9s 8s 5d Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.055% 54.06% 00.00% 1213 0.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 45.945% 45.94% 00.00% 1031 0.00 { JJ-88, 55, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, A9s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, QsJs, QsTs, JTs, 98s, A9o, JTo }

Now let's assume villain will fold out some trash in his range, and pairs lower than a king:

Board: 9s 8s 5d Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.628% 19.63% 00.00% 190 0.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 80.372% 80.37% 00.00% 778 0.00 { 99-88, 55, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, A9s, QsJs, QsTs, JTs, 98s }

I think I also left in some hands there that he's folding, though he could be calling with some weird ass shit too so I guess I'll just leave it at that.

So we are absolutely crushed on the turn. Looks like checking is the correct play.

Let me know if I messed any of this up or if you disagree with the ranges etc.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
Reply With Quote
Micro2Macro
Old 05-27-2009, 03:45 AM #8 (permalink)  
Micro2Macro's Avatar
Moderator

Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
Posts: 4,463
Micro2Macro is a jewel in the roughMicro2Macro is a jewel in the roughMicro2Macro is a jewel in the rough
 Also, if we decide he's compeltely retarded and stacks off with TT and JJ also on turn along with some other stuff here's what it looks like:

Board: 9s 8s 5d Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.781% 42.78% 00.00% 640 0.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 57.219% 57.22% 00.00% 856 0.00 { JJ-88, 55, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, A9s, QsJs, QsTs, JTs, 98s }
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
Reply With Quote
Old 05-27-2009, 08:35 AM #9 (permalink)  
Guest

Posts: n/a
Quote:
Originally Posted by siltstrider
Why don't we make another 2/3 pot bet? I think he would call with worse, and it's easy to fold if he raises you. Then check behind river.

Why are the turn options just check and shove?
he has a little over 2/3 pot left in his stack, what are we going to do, fold to 50 cent shove? might as well shove $3.5 or whatever he has left if we're going to make a $3 bet

I don't see him folding TT+ or even A9 here
if we assume he's not folding any 9 in his range:

Board: 9s 8s 5d Ks

Hand 0: 53.294% { 88+, 55, A9s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, K9s, Q9s, JsTs, J9s, T9s, 98s, 76s, A9o, J9o, T9o, 98o, 76o }
Hand 1: 46.706% { AcAh }

I don't know if he would peel the flop with overs, because if he does our chances just got better since he hits the king
Now, he's going to fold to the shove a decent % of the time, and I think that you have to take into account that we gain money by having him fold a single spade that may get there on the river

if we had the ace of spades, I could see an argument for checking behind and calling any river because we'd gain value from his bluffs
although I'm not sure how rampant random bluff shoves are, but feesh in 6m lurve to bruff
Reply With Quote
Reply
Latest Poker News
KoRnholio Old 05-26-2012, 03:08 PM    Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ...

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »
Thread Tools
Display Modes
Linear Mode Linear Mode

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


All times are GMT. The time now is 07:01 PM.

Contact Us - Archive - Top

FTR Testimonials

All content
© FlopTurnRiver.com 		Advertising  |   Partners  |   Testimonials  |   T&C  |   Contact Us  |   FTR News & Press  |   Site Map  |   Search FTR

Full Tilt  |   Titan Poker  |   UltimateBet  |   Poker Stars  |   Ladbrokes Bonus  |   Sportsbook  |   Cake Poker  

Play Texas Holdem Online, Online Texas Holdem Strategy, & Poker Forum
This is not a gambling website.