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LawDude
Old 09-29-2009, 06:53 PM     Post subject: yuck #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is 28/3/0.85 over 199 hands. I shouldn't have called this pre-flop but I figured I might have a shot if he was trying to steal a pot or raising with AK or something, and I knew I would be heads up.

PokerStars Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (10 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8, 8
2 folds, UTG+2 raises, 6 folds, Hero calls

Flop: (4.5 SB) K, 10, K (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 checks

Turn: (2.25 BB) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 calls

River: (4.25 BB) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG+2 caps, Hero calls

Total pot: $12.25 (12.25 BB) | Rake: $0.50

Results below:
Hero mucked 8, 8 (full house, eights over Kings).
UTG+2 had 10, K (full house, Kings over tens).
Outcome: UTG+2 won $11.75
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BennyLaRue
Old 09-29-2009, 07:22 PM     Post subject: Re: yuck #2 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
Villain is 28/3/0.85 over 199 hands. I shouldn't have called this pre-flop but I figured I might have a shot if he was trying to steal a pot or raising with AK or something, and I knew I would be heads up.
Full ring with those opponent stats and I'm OOP, yes, I'm folding that. A steal is unlikely from UTG+2.

As played, b/c river and thank him for making it easy on you. I'm likely only 3-betting if his AF is really up there and I've seen him either bluff or try to get clever before.
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LawDude
Old 09-29-2009, 07:29 PM     Post subject: Re: yuck #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
Villain is 28/3/0.85 over 199 hands. I shouldn't have called this pre-flop but I figured I might have a shot if he was trying to steal a pot or raising with AK or something, and I knew I would be heads up.
Full ring with those opponent stats and I'm OOP, yes, I'm folding that. A steal is unlikely from UTG+2.

As played, b/c river and thank him for making it easy on you. I'm likely only 3-betting if his AF is really up there and I've seen him either bluff or try to get clever before.
I think you are right about the river. I just suspected that quite often he has AK or AA in this spot and while KK was a slight possibility and TT was probably out of his range but wasn't implausible, I didn't see KT coming in a zillion years. But yeah, the aggression factor seems to mean he must have the goods here.
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KoRnholio
Old 09-29-2009, 08:01 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 I can't see this being a fold preflop. Getting 3:1 with a decent pair I'm going to at least see a flop and try to dodge paint. Given his passivity, if we get raised on a rag board, we can safely dump it.

Quote:
I didn't see KT coming in a zillion years
Because of his 3% PFR stat? That's the problem with relying on a hud. Even after 200 hands, that isn't a very big sample. Not to mention that 3% PFR =/= top 3% of hands. He could be one of those monkies that limps QQ+/AK, but raises some sooted cards.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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LawDude
Old 09-29-2009, 08:08 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KoRnholio
I can't see this being a fold preflop. Getting 3:1 with a decent pair I'm going to at least see a flop and try to dodge paint. Given his passivity, if we get raised on a rag board, we can safely dump it.

Quote:
I didn't see KT coming in a zillion years
Because of his 3% PFR stat? That's the problem with relying on a hud. Even after 200 hands, that isn't a very big sample. Not to mention that 3% PFR =/= top 3% of hands. He could be one of those monkies that limps QQ+/AK, but raises some sooted cards.
I understand your point, but this was KT offsuit from middle position. Not something you expect to see in the guy's 3 percent.
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BennyLaRue
Old 09-29-2009, 08:15 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KoRnholio
I can't see this being a fold preflop. Getting 3:1 with a decent pair I'm going to at least see a flop and try to dodge paint.
I can't say I let this go every time, yeah, but if I do proceed, I 3-bet pre and take the initative. Donk bets so rarely work against overs.
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LawDude
Old 09-29-2009, 08:18 PM #7 (permalink)  
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LawDude
By the way, here are his 5 preflop raises in 199 hands

KTo once (this hand) out of one hand
KK twice out of two hands
88 once out of one hand
A9s once out of three hands

He also limped AK the only time he got it, from UTG+1
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Chopper
Old 09-29-2009, 09:21 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
By the way, here are his 5 preflop raises in 199 hands

KTo once (this hand) out of one hand
KK twice out of two hands
88 once out of one hand
A9s once out of three hands

He also limped AK the only time he got it, from UTG+1
then, we can safely say the 3% is pretty far off base. this guy becomes a retarded fish in my book. he is passive pre and passive post. i treat him like a station.......and respect any raise he makes....at any time.

i dont want to get into pots with him unless I have the initiative. and, i expect to get pretty good value out of marginal hands.

but, when HE takes the lead, i will usually bow out, unless it's clear i outdrew him.

this kind of villain is really stupid. he gets trappy with huge hands, both pre and post flop, i would guess. he likely makes two colossal mistakes: 1.. he doesnt get any value out of his decent hands....and 2.. he calls down with 2nd best hands. he probably thinks he is a long-term winner because of the bluffs he catches.

at least, that is what i immediately conclude when he raises KT and A9 from ep spots and his metrics run so passive.

but, YES, we can still rely on the HUD here. we just have to adjust and take note of what we see when it contradicts what we initially thought. we should have been assuming he was raising a very tight range here, and probably folded, to be honest. however, when we find KT we have to start doing some more thinking about "WHY would he play that there? WHAT does that tell me about his numbers now?" and, we draw our next conclusion, and go with that until he proves us wrong again.
LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
 
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