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elipsesjeff
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12-24-2004, 07:55 AM
Post subject: You know you're having a good day when...
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#1 (permalink)
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Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is BB with 7 , 3 .
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.
Flop: (5 SB) 6 , 4 , K (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, Button calls, SB folds, Hero calls.
Turn: (4.50 BB) 7 (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 folds, Button calls, Hero calls.
River: (7.50 BB) 7 (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Button folds, Hero raises, UTG calls.
Final Pot: 11.50 BB
Results in white below:
Hero has 7d 3h (three of a kind, sevens).
UTG has Js 6s (two pair, sevens and sixes).
Outcome: Hero wins 11.50 BB.
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is CO with A , K . UTG posts a blind of $2.
UTG+1 (jmrogers7) calls, MP1 folds, MP2 (mike4066) calls, Hero raises, Button folds, BB folds, UTG (poster) calls, UTG+1 (jmrogers7) calls, MP2 (mike4066) calls.
Flop: (8.50 SB) 8 , 5 , 7 (5 players)
UTG bets, jmrogers7 folds, mike4066 calls, Hero raises, UTG calls, mike4066 calls.
Turn: (7.25 BB) 2 (4 players)
UTG checks, mike4066 checks, Hero checks.
River: (7.25 BB) 9 (4 players)
UTG checks, mike4066 bets, Hero raises, UTG folds, mike4066 calls.
Final Pot: 11.25 BB
Results in white below:
mike4066 has 3d 3h (one pair, threes).
Hero has Ah Kh (flush, ace high).
SB doesn't show.
Outcome: Hero wins 11.25 BB.
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steviebrutal
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 96
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Forgive what could be my overwhelming ignorance here, but why did you call down to the turn on hand 1? I see the gutshot and everything which makes the flop a good call, but can you be so sure youre not far behind there? When the 7 hits on the turn, it makes you a hand but with 5 players seeing the flop - wouldnt the odds be decent that one of them has a king? Not to mention the kind of hands that UTG might limp with in that position? If youre behind here and drawing to your straight, youre getting like 11 to 1 in a 6.5 to 1 pot. If you want to add in the 2 7s to your figure.. youre still getting 6.7 to 1 to make a winning hand.
Did you have a specific read on this player to make this decision?
Note: Im not criticizing your play here at all. I just want to understand the thinking behind the hand.
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gabe
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he had four 5s, three 3s and two 7s, which makes 9 outs. that is 4:1 odds, so it was justified by pot odds.
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gabe
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mike, why did you hold on to those 3s for so long? were you trying to bluff like you had the flush or were you thinking jeff was bluffing?
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ChezJ
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
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i fail to understand the flop play in both of these hands. calling a gutshot without odds? raising overcards without odds? also, why take the free card on the turn in hand #2 with a 5:1 draw to the nuts? you had pot odds to bet.
ChezJ
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mike4066
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Gabriel
mike, why did you hold on to those 3s for so long? were you trying to bluff like you had the flush or were you thinking jeff was bluffing?
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Ont t he flop, I should have dropped them. After the flop was easy.
I was about 95% sure that Jeff had 2 over cards and My hand was good against him. I was more concerned with UTG. Once the turn checked through I was going to bet any thing that wasn't AKQ.
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jmrogers7
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2004
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I was sitting at this table with Mike and Jeff last night. Jeff went on an incredible run where he won like 5 of 6 hands or something close to that. He was a runaway train and I was gettin' out of the way! Nice job, Jeff!
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"The urge to gamble is so universal and it's practice is so pleasurable, that I assume it must be evil." - Heywood Broun
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mike4066
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you missed a couple great hands after you guys left..
I hit top set, against another set, capped turn/river 3 way..
the 3rd guy hit the straight with T8o
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steviebrutal
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 96
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Gabriel
he had four 5s, three 3s and two 7s, which makes 9 outs. that is 4:1 odds, so it was justified by pot odds.
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you need to think about tainted outs. The 3's are marginal at best, as they help make a coordinated board that may benefit your opponent(s). I suppose in this situation the 3's could be considered solid, but like I said the fact that UTG limped implies there is a variety of hands he could have... amongst them, are K4, K6. The situation seems too volatile on the turn to try to take a 5BB pot.
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gabe
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I think it is more likely that he would have something like KT or KJ. Why would UTG limp with K6? That seems unlikely. But I guess there could be some tained outs as far as the other limpers are concerned.
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elipsesjeff
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by steviebrutal
Forgive what could be my overwhelming ignorance here, but why did you call down to the turn on hand 1? I see the gutshot and everything which makes the flop a good call, but can you be so sure youre not far behind there? When the 7 hits on the turn, it makes you a hand but with 5 players seeing the flop - wouldnt the odds be decent that one of them has a king? Not to mention the kind of hands that UTG might limp with in that position? If youre behind here and drawing to your straight, youre getting like 11 to 1 in a 6.5 to 1 pot. If you want to add in the 2 7s to your figure.. youre still getting 6.7 to 1 to make a winning hand.
Did you have a specific read on this player to make this decision?
Note: Im not criticizing your play here at all. I just want to understand the thinking behind the hand.
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Well, if you say calling the flop was a good call, why wouldn't calling the turn also? You just added an extra 2 outs. If some fish is holding a 5 if i were to spike my 3, i'd be glad to pay him off. I don't believe any of my outs were tainted, especially at 73o. I didn't believe any of these guys had two pair due to the ragged board. And 5 BB turned into 11 by then end of the hand. With good implied odds you make a lot of your money on the later two streets. This quickly went from a measly $20 pot to a nice $45 one.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Gabriel
mike, why did you hold on to those 3s for so long? were you trying to bluff like you had the flush or were you thinking jeff was bluffing?
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He knew what I had....although the previous hand I did have AA, but he had to of known I was on two overs. It was a great read by him. You'll be surprised how many AK hands you can bust with the small PP on a ragged board.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chezj
i fail to understand the flop play in both of these hands. calling a gutshot without odds? raising overcards without odds? also, why take the free card on the turn in hand #2 with a 5:1 draw to the nuts? you had pot odds to bet.
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I did have odds, on both plays. I was getting pot odds and implied odds to call the gutshot, and those increased when I hit my 7 on the turn. On the second hand, you ALWAYS want to raise in this situation. These guys cant have more than one pair in this situation and you try to buy the free card. I may have had pot odds to bet on the turn, but I could have extracted more from Mike if I checked and then spiked my hand. Mike had a read on me and there was no way he was going to fold if I were to bet. Since I'm still on a draw here, my bet would want to get Mike out of the pot, and he wasn't going anywhere. On a flush draw, you generally want to jam the flop and see the river for cheap. You forget, if i don't get an A,K or a heart here, I fold the river, saving a bet. Since I did hit, I got 2 bets. So, in conclusion, checking the turn here is worth 3 bets, as opposed to 2 bets from betting/calling the turn and river.
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elipsesjeff
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jmrogers7
I was sitting at this table with Mike and Jeff last night. Jeff went on an incredible run where he won like 5 of 6 hands or something close to that. He was a runaway train and I was gettin' out of the way! Nice job, Jeff!
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You should come on IRC more often!! Its not everyday we both get to sit with Mike at the table and take his money
I was on a incredible run, I would have won another nice pot but I was sucked out on by 84o by the same guy I sucked out with 73o. Kinda Ironic really.
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Fnord
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In the second hand I bet that turn.
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elipsesjeff
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
In the second hand I bet that turn.
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I can see where you would, but I just did a decision tree to see what the expected value is, lets see if i did it right:
On the turn, you have three choices: Check, Bet, or Fold. Folding will not give you any value from here on out, so our two choices are Check, and Bet.
If you check, there is a 31% chance you will hit one of your 15 outs on the river (6 over cards, plus 9 for the flush), and a 69% chance you will miss. The value if you check and hit, is a net of 2 BB (as per my example above). The value if you check and miss, is a net of 0 BB b/c you fold the river without improving your hand. Thus, .31 * 2 BB + .69 * 0 BB = +.62 BB.
Now, if you bet, there is still a 31% chance you will hit one of your 15 outs on the river, and a 69% chance you will miss. The value if you bet and hit, would be anywhere from Net 2 BB to 4 BB (Betting the turn and get both callers, then betting the river to get both callers again would get you max of 4 BB, if the other guy in this situation folds on the turn, you subtract his two bets, if he folds on the river, you subtract one bet). If you bet on the turn and miss the river, then your net would be -1 BB. The value if you bet and hit would be anywhere from .62 to 1.24 BB (from 2 bets to 4). The value if you bet and miss would be -.69 BB. Thus, .31*2 BB + .69*-1 BB = -.07 BB at the worst. At best, .31*4 BB + .69* -1 BB still only gives you a value of +.55 BB.
Thus, when only two other players are in this pot, betting is unprofitable. For betting to be profitable, you would need at least three people to be calling the turn and river, for a net of at least 5 BB:
.31*5 BB + .69 *-1 = .86 BB
I hope this isn't too confusing, but the correct option here would be to take the free card with only 2 opponents. With three or more opponents, you should bet. However, you should check with less than 3. I myself just learned this information, and is just a justification of taking the free card.
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Fnord
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I bet the turn because the other 2 players might have over-cards and give up on the turn. The board very easily could have missed both of them. Folding equity makes it a profitable bet.
However, if you suspect a turn check/raise is lurking then checking becomes a better idea.
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elipsesjeff
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
I bet the turn because the other 2 players might have over-cards and give up on the turn. The board very easily could have missed both of them. Folding equity makes it a profitable bet.
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Mike told me after the hand that he wasnt going to fold the hand because he knew I had overs. So if you expect the players not to fold to your bet, then betting wouldn't be profitable. But if you can chase the players out without hitting your hand then thats a good thing. But i knew i wouldn't be able to shake him, so thats why I didnt bet.
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|~|ypermegachi
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dude...if you did all that math at the table within 2 seconds you should be playing 100/200
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ChezJ
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on hand 1, you are definitely not getting correct pot odds to call or make one bet on the flop. the pot contains a miniscule 5 small bets. you need 11:1 to chase a gutshot (4 outs). if someone raises behind you, you are completely hosed. even with 4 people calling, you only got 8:1 into the pot.
on hand 2, as i said before, the pot was laying you 9:1 on the turn. you had a 5:1 chance of catching your flush on the river. so if you bet in this situation every single time, then 5 times out of 6 you will fold the river and lose 1 bet. the 1 time out of 6 that you hit, you will win 9 times your investment, recovering 4 more bets than you lost. the overlay is so significant, you should bet. you could pick up the pot right there, or occasionally fold down a better hand.
ChezJ
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Fnord
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ChezJ
on hand 1, you are definitely not getting correct pot odds to call or make one bet on the flop. the pot contains a miniscule 5 small bets. you need 11:1 to chase a gutshot (4 outs). if someone raises behind you, you are completely hosed. even with 4 people calling, you only got 8:1 into the pot.
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With a rainbow board all of his gutshot outs are clean. Also, his call is closing the action so there is no chance of a raise behind. Implied odds make this a call.
The flop raise in the second hand is a little LAggy. You need to be careful picking your spots to run this play as aware/good/aggressive players will 3-bet a lot. If they see you run this play a lot, marginal players will start 3-betting you.
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ChezJ
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you know what, i misread the hand history on #1. i thought he was the one who bet, since it was in red, but it was the guy next to him. so my discussion of the odds was off. still, 8:1 is not enough for me to chase a gutshot.
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Fnord
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ChezJ
you know what, i misread the hand history on #1. i thought he was the one who bet, since it was in red, but it was the guy next to him. so my discussion of the odds was off. still, 8:1 is not enough for me to chase a gutshot.
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Implied odds are much better than that.
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elipsesjeff
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ChezJ
on hand 2, as i said before, the pot was laying you 9:1 on the turn. you had a 5:1 chance of catching your flush on the river. so if you bet in this situation every single time, then 5 times out of 6 you will fold the river and lose 1 bet. the 1 time out of 6 that you hit, you will win 9 times your investment, recovering 4 more bets than you lost. the overlay is so significant, you should bet. you could pick up the pot right there, or occasionally fold down a better hand.
ChezJ
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You are taking into account what has already occured though. I was trying to maximize my FUTURE winnings, so you can't count whats in the past. I may have had pot odds to bet, but I had larger Implied odds to check and raise the river.
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ChezJ
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i don't think you can count on getting 2-4 BB's if you check and hit on the river. in your example, mike bluffed into you. what occurs more often is everyone gets scared of the possible flush and you get no callers or just one once your hand is made.
otoh, you can generally count on your opponents calling your bet on the turn because they are hoping to improve on that last card. for example if they are chasing an open ended straight draw, they will call the turn and instantly dump on the river when they miss. if they have a made hand like TPTK, they will tend to check-call one bet on the river against three hearts.
so i still think your implied odds argument is flawed. my opinion only.
ChezJ
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steviebrutal
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 96
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ChezJ
you had a 5:1 chance of catching your flush on the river.
ChezJ
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isnt it 4:1? or more specifically 4.1:1?
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ChezJ
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Full House
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my bad, it is 4:1. i was thinking 1 out of 5. sorry for the sloppy mistake. but that only means the odds are even better for catching, so the bet is even more appropriate in this spot.
ChezJ
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elipsesjeff
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ChezJ
i don't think you can count on getting 2-4 BB's if you check and hit on the river. in your example, mike bluffed into you. what occurs more often is everyone gets scared of the possible flush and you get no callers or just one once your hand is made.
otoh, you can generally count on your opponents calling your bet on the turn because they are hoping to improve on that last card. for example if they are chasing an open ended straight draw, they will call the turn and instantly dump on the river when they miss. if they have a made hand like TPTK, they will tend to check-call one bet on the river against three hearts.
so i still think your implied odds argument is flawed. my opinion only.
ChezJ
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Mike didn't bluff into me, he had a hand. Like whats been said before, he knew I had 2 overcards because i check on the turn, so if an over didnt come on the river, he would have bet. It was a very good read by him. He didn't expect me to hit the flush, hence, that is the added value of the implied odds. Like I said before, with 3 or more other opponents in the pot, betting is correct to do on the turn. But with only two other opponents, you should just check and hope for the best on the river. Do the decision tree yourself if you dont think I'm right.
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