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arkitekton
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08-20-2006, 09:42 AM
Post subject: yet one more reason not to raise with a draw
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
Posts: 269
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From tonight's session.
Never seen anything quite like this...
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9 , J. UTG+2 posts a blind of $5.00.
2 folds, UTG+2 (poster) checks, MP1 calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.
Flop: (6 SB) 3, 7 , 2 (6 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero raises, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds.
Turn: (7 BB) A (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB folds, BB folds.
Final Pot: 8 BB
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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How is this a bad thing? What if the turn had been the A of diamonds? You just bought yourself a big pot without having to actually hit your flush...What if you hadn't raised the flop and it was still checked to you on the turn and then everybody folded? You made more money than if that happened.
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midas06
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: NZ
Posts: 2,196
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...
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arkitekton
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
Posts: 269
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I didn't say it was a bad thing, exactly--just that I'd never seen two of four players fold to a flop raise after calling the initial bet, then have the remaining players keel over in response to my turn bet. I'm not saying either that raising with a draw on the flop for a free card is wrong, but rather that even when it looks like all the ingredients are there, very little may still come of it.
I'm not at all convinced that betting if something like the Ad comes on the turn is correct, and while 7BB is a decent pot, it's barely above average-sized.
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What if you hadn't raised the flop and it was still checked to you on the turn and then everybody folded? You made more money than if that happened.
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Absolutely true.
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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The vast majority of the time, everyone calls the second bet, and it is highly +EV to raise here after 4 have put a bet in on the flop. A turn bet will usually get called in more than one spot as well. You also gain value from the possibility of a free card. Not raising here loses a lot of value.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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These kinds of flop raises are the kinds of things that seperate the professional from the amateur. Youre 30%ish to hit your hand, and there are 4 people in the pot. This raise is pure unadulterated profit.
Now, do you take the free card? :]
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arkitekton
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
Posts: 269
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While I'm well acquainted with the math of raising on the flop with a draw, it's been increasingly my impression that it rarely works as well as we'd like it to. Unexpected things happen such as with the hand I described; or, when we hit our draw on the turn, we often get paid off less than if we had just called on the flop since opponents are often wary after our raise. If we miss on the turn and take the free card, then catch on the river, it's unlikely that sentient opponents will do other than check/call. While the math justifies the flop raise, in practice I'm beginning to think it's a little less effective than just calling.
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Now, do you take the free card? :]
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Er... probably. Tempting to bet, but the Ace may well have helped someone. I'm not optimistic that I'll get both opponents to fold.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by arkitekton
While I'm well acquainted with the math of raising on the flop with a draw, it's been increasingly my impression that it rarely works as well as we'd like it to. Unexpected things happen such as with the hand I described; or, when we hit our draw on the turn, we often get paid off less than if we had just called on the flop since opponents are often wary after our raise. If we miss on the turn and take the free card, then catch on the river, it's unlikely that sentient opponents will do other than check/call. While the math justifies the flop raise, in practice I'm beginning to think it's a little less effective than just calling.
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Now, do you take the free card? :]
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Er... probably. Tempting to bet, but the Ace may well have helped someone. I'm not optimistic that I'll get both opponents to fold. |
So, you want to wait until after you hit your hand to extract value from it? You'll find that if they'll fold to your turn bet here even after you raise the flop, then they are just as likely to fold when you do raise when you hit the flush.
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arkitekton
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
Posts: 269
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...not what I implied, not what I meant, not what I wrote...
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