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yes implied odds matter in limit

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LawDude

04-17-2009, 06:41 AM Post subject: yes implied odds matter in limit

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2009

Posts: 940

One of my favorite poker myths is "limit is a pot odds game, no limit is an implied odds game". Both concepts matter in both games. When you are sitting there wondering whether to call someone's shove with your gutshot straight and flush draws in a no limit game, you better know the pot odds.

And implied odds matter in limit. I played a hand that was a perfect example of this tonight.

I am in middle position 2 on a pretty loose $20/$40 limit table with QdJd. Importantly, there is a guy on my right (acts before me) who has the same pattern on every hand. He will always play loose passively (calling and never raising every hand) before the flop and play as a calling station afterwards.

UTG, who makes a lot of pre-flop raises (probably partly because he knows that MP1 will call them), raises. MP1 calls. At this point, I want to see the flop in a multiway pot. There's going to be several callers and a lot of money in the pot, I have a good starting hand that can make a lot of good hands after the flop. I call. MP3, CO, and Button call, SB folds, BB calls. There are 14 big blinds in the pot.

The flop is Q77 rainbow. UTG checks. MP1 checks (of course), I bet. MP3, a tight player, calls-- he might have a queen, but more likely he has 2 overcards. MP3 folds, CO, a pretty decent player, raises. He's got a 7. Button and BB fold. UTG calls-- he probably just doesn't want to fold on the flop because it shows weakness, but I doubt he got a piece of it. It's possible he has a queen, though. MP1, of course, calls.

At this point, there are 22 big blinds in the pot. So I am getting 22-1 odds on my call, with either 1 or (most probably) 2 outs. That doesn't seem like great pot odds, especially since CO is betting on the turn if I miss so I can't count on seeing the river.

But my implied odds are better. Let's say I hit my queen. We know that MP1 is going to call me on the turn and the river. So I will pick up 4 big blinds of bets from him. I also suspect CO will make crying calls on the turn and river with his 7. That's another 4 big blinds. So my implied odds are more like 30 to 1. Now, there's a slight chance that MP3 is going to have a queen and we may chop (and I only have one out). But I don't think it's that likely. In any event, I will probably find that out by whether he calls the bet after me. So at least when I get to the turn, I'll be acting with full information. I decide to call.

MP3 folds. Whew. I've got 2 outs.

Turn is a J. Now I love this card. There are 23 big blinds already in the pot. I know that CO, with his trips 7's, is going to put in a bet, and MP1 is going to call it. So I am going to get 14-1 pot odds calling the bet and seeing the river, and I now know I have 4 outs.

But my implied odds are even better. Because while CO suspects I have a queen (in which case I'll bet and probably just get called down), if I make my full house with a jack, CO won't know I have a full house and I will be able to check-raise him having looked like I missed. So, my implied odds if a queen hits are 18-1 and if a jack hits are 22-1! You can average these for equity purposes and say I am getting 20-1 implied odds on my call.

I call.

River is a J. As expected, I check, CO bets, MP1 calls, and I raise and get 2 calls.

I table my hand and 2 players tell me how terrible I played the hand and how lucky I was. I just smile and collect my chips.

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Chopper

04-17-2009, 01:52 PM

#2 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

Quote:

I table my hand and 2 players tell me how terrible I played the hand and how lucky I was. I just smile and collect my chips.

my favorite part right here. i LOVE just smiling at them while they call me every name they can think of.

and, i think to myself......"you, too, can play this hand correctly if you read a book every time you shit instead of just sitting.....errrrr shitting.....there."

poker is not an easy game, by any stretch. but, its not that hard to get "pretty good," either.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

KoRnholio

04-17-2009, 04:04 PM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005

Posts: 2,165

KoRnholio will become famous soon enough

Even better is when people say stuff like they had "pot odds" after they win a huge pot.. Failing to realize that their cold-calling a cap in a 5way pot with junk was so, so terrible. Misapplication of the concept FTW!

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

LawDude

04-17-2009, 04:33 PM

#4 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2009

Posts: 940

Quote:

Originally Posted by KoRnholio

Here's the sort of hands you see in a typical capped pot and the equities:

As Ah 458588 53.91 391120 45.98 960 0.11 0.539
Ks Qd 80012 9.41 761389 89.50 9267 1.09 0.099
8c 7c 159546 18.76 676480 79.52 14642 1.72 0.196
8s 6d 83674 9.84 752352 88.44 14642 1.72 0.107
Kd 2h 45899 5.40 795502 93.51 9267 1.09 0.059

Translation: if you don't have suited connectors, you shouldn't be rationalizing about pot odds in a capped pot.

Raoni_Poker

04-17-2009, 10:57 PM

#5 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Mar 2009

Location: Netherlands

Posts: 265

Great hand!
Did you actually do all the calculation during the hand? I mean, sometimes online games are so freaking fast that for must of the time I just follow my instincts. I usually am very unlucky with flush draws...but i keep playing it aggressively when I (think) I have the odds.

Good stuff, there! Congrats.

LawDude

04-18-2009, 12:28 AM

#6 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2009

Posts: 940

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raoni_Poker

Yeah, I did do the basic calculations during the hand. Essentially, when I saw the flop raise and put CO on the 7, I started to ask myself "OK, any reason I'm not folding this hand? How many outs do I have? What's in the pot? What's going to happen on later streets if I call and hit?".

And then when I saw the Jack on the turn, I went through the same process again.

Now, I fleshed it all out for the post here, but I had the key parameters in mind while playing the hand.

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yes implied odds matter in limit

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