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MrPocketSevens

12-23-2008, 06:17 PM Post subject: WinRate at FL

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Dec 2008

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Hi guys I've playing poker since I was 15 and know I turned 18 and I'm taking it more seriously

I'm going to star by playing FL $0,5/$1 with my $350 bankroll which I think it's right to do because I have some experience and I've read a lot of articles about the game but I have one question ...

What is considered a good WinRate at FL Hold'em, both FullTable and Shorthanded ... I'm really curious because I want to be aware what most winning players win so I can compare

If you can help me please reply

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DrivingDog

12-23-2008, 06:28 PM

#2 (permalink)

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A GOOF winrate is hard to define. A GOOD winrate is any winrate > 0 because ~90% of all players don't beat the rake at all. If you're getting 1 BB/100 that's quite good, 2BB/100 is excellent, and anything above that is stellar.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

MrPocketSevens

12-23-2008, 06:49 PM

#3 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DrivingDog

A GOOF winrate is hard to define.

Post Edited

MrPocketSevens

12-23-2008, 07:06 PM

#4 (permalink)

Join Date: Dec 2008

Posts: 19

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrivingDog

A GOOD winrate is any winrate > 0 because ~90% of all players don't beat the rake at all. If you're getting 1 BB/100 that's quite good, 2BB/100 is excellent, and anything above that is stellar.

Wow really?? 90% of the players don't beat the rake? I had no idea ... And i tought that a good WinRate would be bigger, something like 4BB, i'm really suprised and know i can rearranje my goals ...

Imagine me winning 2BB and becoming very frustated because I didn't reach 4BB

Chopper

12-23-2008, 08:59 PM

#5 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DrivingDog

A GOOF winrate is hard to define...

well played..

but more seriously, yes, >1/100 is pretty solid. and, >2 is pretty much killing it.

but, and there's always a butt, you WILL go crazy if you only hit a 2. and, you WILL expect that you should run a 4. and, thats a GOOD THING. dont be satisfied.

if you want the higher winrates, i must say NL is your game. but, you need a larger bankroll to play the same levels (when "level" is determined by the size of the blinds).

jump into the stickies and find a good rakeback site, too. that will have a tremendous effect on your winrate since it softens what the house takes from you.

i would also suggest starting a bit lower, OR expecting to reload if this is your first experience online. the games, you should find, will be more aggressive...and tighter. i would dabble for 5k hands at 10c/20c, quickly move to 25c/50c, and THEN contemplate 50c/$1 if you still hit the bankroll requirements to do so. that is, IF you dont want to ever deposit more money. if you dont mind depositing more, and thats ok too, just pick a level and get after it.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

MrPocketSevens

12-23-2008, 11:36 PM

#6 (permalink)

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I don't you win much more in NL then in FL ...

Let's say you have a $300 bankroll. You should play:

FL $0,5/$1 (300 Big Bets)

NL10 (30 Full Buy-ins)

Let's you're WinRate on FL is 1,5 BB/100. You're winning $1,5 per 100 hands.

Ley's say you're WinRate on NL is 15BigBlins/100. You're winning the same value per 100 hands.

Is my thinking process wrong? Can you make more money in NL then in FL using correct bankroll management?

Chopper

12-24-2008, 01:19 AM

#7 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by MrPocketSevens

I don't you win much more in NL then in FL ...

Let's say you have a $300 bankroll. You should play:

FL $0,5/$1 (300 Big Bets)

not really. its kind of the same. but, using the ptbb/100 that NL players like to use, playing 50/1 is like playing 50NL. however, i need only $300-$500 in limit, but i need $500 MINIMUM for NL....more likely $1000, more in 6max. so, the requirements are very much different.

now, if you play up higher, sure, the winrates calm down. i've only seen one player, here at FTR, put up a 4/100 in ptbb at highish stakes like 1000NL+. most people calm down into the .5-1.5 range, from what little i know about up there. so, things start to equal out.

however, at the microstakes, its VASTLY different. variance will keep you under a 5 in limit games. but, you could crush the NL micros w/ a 10+ ptbb/100 at the 10NL games. blind structure wise, that equates to 10c/20c....where i doubt many sustain a 10/100 over any significant sample size.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

MrPocketSevens

12-24-2008, 10:13 AM

#8 (permalink)

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But has I said it's the same thing if you have the same value of money to play ...

To play NL50 you said you need at least $1000 but with that bankroll you can play FL $1/$2. Are you understanding by opinion?

With correct managment of your starting bankroll you can make the same money on NL has you do in FL. I don't think that playing NL makes you have more profit because with, let's say, a $600 bankroll you can play FL $1/$2 but you have to play NL20 in my opinion ... at least 30 buy-ins in NL because variance is so big.

Chopper

12-24-2008, 01:20 PM

#9 (permalink)

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i understand your opinion. and, i agree that the winrates will balance out. but, like I said...

at the microstakes, they will be vastly different. you will make a crapload more money playing NL than LHE. i dont know where they start to balance out....maybe 100NL. but, below that, for sure, you will make more playing NL.

just ask around. why else do you think there is such little traffic in here than any of the other three or four NL forums? part of it is supply and demand, but, part of it is where it is easier to profit.

drawing from MY experiences... i played NL for several years, exclusively. i played as high as 100NL and never posted a losing winrate over any decent sample. after the regs passed, and the bonuses dropped off the face of the planet, i noticed the games stiffening. my "games getting tougher" theory was poo-poo'd all over for awhile, but people came around. but, i dropped levels dramatically. i wasnt even enjoying 25NL anymore. so, i dropped to 10NL to play with my brother, who had most of his money frozen on NeTeller.

he continued to move back up....i stayed put. why? because he was grinding at 2-4/100, and i was punishing 10NL for 13+ by just playing abc poker. i played there for over a year and decided it was time to move back up again. because, after all, if i could beat a 1.3/100 at 100NL, i was making more money. and, the ceiling HAD to be higher at 100NL than at 10NL....a 10+ is pretty much maxxing it out at those levels, imo.

however, i was no longer able to move back up as confidently. sure, i was winning, but not like i was used to. i used to beat 25NL for an 8. now, i was a 3...at best. i was frustrated. i wasnt enjoying myself. i went back down to 10NL to continue crushing there...with no variance. (i like loggin in and knowing that 17/18 times, i will post a nice winning session. its easier on a hobbyist's mind.) before that, though, i went through a 50k breakeven stretch at 25NL....that NEVER happened before. and, its because the games were tighter/tougher. ok, so that happens. big deal. but, IT SUCKS. i cant carry a 10+ at 10NL anymore, either, though.

so, i switched over to limit. why? because you dont need the bankroll to play as high. and, if i am beating the game for a 1/100 at $1/$2, then i am making the same money as 100NL players earning a 1....or as much as 10NL players earning a 10.

bottom line is: when i switched back to limit, i NEVER ran close to a 10 bb/100 over ANY large sample. i havent cleared a 5 over a decent size. (suddenly, i dont care anymore, but it is what it is).

i have played for four to five years...as a hobbyist. i move up when i feel like it. i like the micros, contrary to anyone's belief, and plan to stay at the lower limits for a long time, if not forever. it doesnt bother me.

but, i can tell you this... i have played anywhere from 2/4c LHE to 1/2, and, from 2NL to 100NL. trust me when i tell you that you will ALWAYS earn a higher rate playing NL...at THESE stakes.

its simply the structure of the game. you cant take stacks in limit. its designed to be a bit more 50/50, imo. the fish stand a better chance at sticking around. they dont lose their money so fast. there also isnt as much education on the game. LHE is about mathematical decisions, almost entirely. the poker world will head back in this direction when the NL ponds continue to dry up because you can play a bit looser w/o realizing that you are punishing yourself....and looser is what the fish like. its more enjoyable to play lots of cards anyway, right?

and, i love that about LHE. so, even though you can make more money at NL in the lower levels, i think i'll be here at the limit tables. sorry, that turned into a loooong, personal story, but that is my opinion, and i have the stats to back it up.

NL is more profitable than LHE.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

MrPocketSevens

12-24-2008, 06:18 PM

#10 (permalink)

Join Date: Dec 2008

Posts: 19

Know I understand why you say that you win more money at NL ... it has nothing to do with br managment or your playing style. It's just the nature of the game that punishes more the bad players. If a big fish makes a big mistake in NL it might cost him his hole stack but in FL it costs him 4 or 5 Big Bets ...

Thanks for the answer i'm sure you had a lot of work writing all that

It has given me an excellent idea about NL & FL major diferences in relation to WinRates

Oh by the way ... nice story as well. Very readable

Lance

12-24-2008, 07:18 PM

#11 (permalink)

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Join Date: Nov 2007

Posts: 210

pretty nice story Chopper. I liked to reading it.
I think every poker player should try all variations of poker (not even only Hold'em). Then he should decide what is the most interesting and enchanting for him.
I play poker 1,5 years. At the beggining i was focusing on the NLHE "Sit and go" tournaments, then LHE FR, NLHE FR, and last 5 months i am back on the LHE (but only 6max) and i also think thats the final station for me.

Chopper

12-24-2008, 07:43 PM

#12 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by MrPocketSevens

It has given me an excellent idea about NL & FL major diferences in relation to WinRates

Oh by the way ... nice story as well. Very readable

obviously, we are agreeing with each other...lol. but, that doesnt mean brothers dont bicker, right?

isnt br management, br management? either you do it, or you dont. and, most have their guidelines by which they go, myself included.

i think all i meant to say was that LHE doesnt require NEAR the bankroll that NL does for the equivalent level in terms of blind sizes.

however, a 50c/1 table wont play like a 100NL table, even though they both have 50c/1 blinds.

i still havent come up with any correlation to that yet. rest assured i am thinking about it all the time, even if it cant be answered. kind of like "if you can beat 25NL, you can beat 2/5NL at a casino." that theory has to have something to gauge whether or not your skills would transfer or get you killed.

any ideas there?

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

12-24-2008, 08:40 PM

#13 (permalink)

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Well, LHE can also give you a hudge downswing

DrivingDog

12-25-2008, 10:25 AM

#14 (permalink)

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Posts: 923

Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

Well, LHE can also give you a hudge downswing

There's nothing worse than a hudge downswing...

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

MrPocketSevens

12-25-2008, 01:43 PM

#15 (permalink)

Join Date: Dec 2008

Posts: 19

Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

Well, LHE can also give you a hudge downswing

I agree that you can also have big downswings at FL but i think that variance is much higher at NL. You can have to coollers in a row and all of the sudden you lost 2 buy-ins. NL is much more volatile because at any time all your stack can go in the middle ...

Chopper, about that correlation you talk about my opinion is this ...

- Solid Winner at $0,5/$1 = Solid winner at NL25, maybe NL 50 ... this in terms of skill of course

Just one more question ... do you that at high stakes you can make the same money at FL that you do in NL?

12-25-2008, 05:05 PM

#16 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by MrPocketSevens

Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

Well, LHE can also give you a hudge downswing

The variance is higher in NL, but you're playing at a higher level in limit
in fact, the BR management of the limit folks is insane
consider this: NL people recommend 20BI at NL10
this is 20 x 100BB = 1000 big bets
the variance in limit is about 2x lower than NL according to my PT2
that means that everyone should be playing at 500 big bets to be playing with the same swings as NL, so playing .25/.50 with $200 is taking more of a risk than playing NL10

MrPocketSevens

12-25-2008, 09:10 PM

#17 (permalink)

Join Date: Dec 2008

Posts: 19

I don't think that 20BI is enough to NL. I really believe you need at least 30BI and 40BI if you're playing 6max ... And has you move to higher stakes i think you should increase the number of BI for that stakes because the quality of your oponents increases making your edge lower, which will cause more variance.

I never taught about FL Br managment like that, comparing it to NL ... i'm mean it always seemed to me that 300BB was pushing it a little bit but i think it's not very risky. And i agree with you when you say you should have 500BB, it's far more safer ...

My opinion is this if you like to gamble a little bit more and if the big downswings don't affect you emotionaly that much i think you should use the 300BB rule. It maximizes your profits and makes it more exciting to play. I enjoy much more

If you play poker for a living you definitly should use the 500BB rule or even more because that bankroll is what pays yout bills

Sheetah

12-26-2008, 08:20 PM

#18 (permalink)

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Chopper, ^^^ nice post. My story is similar to yours, only I used to play LHE alot (old Party days) before switching to NL; recently I'm more and more returning back to limit.

There's only one thing you missed - rake and implications: First, like you said, rake is a killer at low stakes (and so is at NL but not that hard). But if you have a RB deal then at end of the month your BR gets healthy boost - for ex. at 1/2 6m at FT I get almost 1 ptBB/100 in RB. That's SOMETHING and just about what it takes to beat it and move up. Also you clear bonuses faster and gather FPPs (whatever) faster which also converts to money. It's not that I enjoy being raped by the rake but since I already am, let's capitalize on it.

Chopper

12-27-2008, 05:07 AM

#19 (permalink)

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i will try to hit what jumped out at me...

Quote:

Just one more question ... do you that at high stakes you can make the same money at FL that you do in NL?

to me, yes. i think that once you start going higher and higher in NL, say 400NL+, your winrate really starts to calm down. (i have ZERO experience at these levels, but its what i see in "stat posts" here.) a 400NL player usually starts to beat the game for something closer to a "limit looking winrate," meaning closer to a 1ish to 2ish.

all i mean by "make the same money" is 400NL blinds are 2/4. so, if you are winning at a 2 on the 400NL tables, you are making the same DOLLARS as winning a 2 on the 4/8 LHE tables. (remember ptbb in NL are double the big blind.) stoxtrader, himself, says in his book that he carried something like a .80/100 at some huge stakes like 150/300 or maybe higher....i cant remember off the top of my head. but, i would reckon that a 1+ ptbb/100 at a 15,000NL table would pretty much be killing it, too. (not that it exists, but i hope you kind of see my point.)

Quote:

variance

i wont tackle any math here, either. its way out of my league. but, i can tell you we probably ought to define what we ALL mean by "variance."

Quote:

bankroll

ask DrivingDog about his theory on br mgmnt. he has about the best theory i've seen. it just makes sense...to me. bottom line: bankroll dont matter for shit if you are willing to move back down. i think we put too much emphasis on EXACTLY how many bb's or bi's you need to carry. i mean, hell, who is riding their $5000 roll all the way down to zero before moving down a level or two anyway? they are "loose" guidelines, imo, and should be adhered to....but, violated from time to time, too. again, ask Dog about his guidelines, and if he explains them again, you will see what i mean.

Quote:

rake

i'm glad you brought it up, sheetah, because i didnt want to lengthen that post any more. but, yes, it crushes you down low in LHE worse because of the betting structure. ever play a 3/6 live game at a B&M? jesus christ! i can hardly beat that game because of rake and tips.....oh, and cocktails, baby. (j/k i dont like to drink if i play live because i'm a cheap bastard, but i DO feel the need to tip. i mean, sheeeet, she controls my cards for christ's sake....lol)

rakeback helps me at about 1bb/100, too. and, that is unbelievable for a LHE player. and, yes, we crank off bonuses, too. but, in the US, i dont get many bonus offers. (except the stars one that just got announced....too bad i cant fire any money into it because i wont write a check and i cant seem to turn my fictional cake money into real cash...but, thats a different story for another time.)

sheetah, all in all, i hope you come back to limit because i've read some of your commentary, and i like it.

you may also agree with me that the fish will slide back this direction once they give LHE a shot and find they can stick around long enough to get lucky easier than at NL. and, they can play higher stakes because they dont need to bring as much to the table.

oh, i also see that stars has taken a suggestion seriously and created 1/2 stack minimum tables to cut back on the 20bb hit-n-run artists that used to clog up the friggin tables.

anyway, carry on.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

Sheetah

12-27-2008, 08:33 PM

#20 (permalink)

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Join Date: Oct 2006

Posts: 278

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

Quote:

Just one more question ... do you that at high stakes you can make the same money at FL that you do in NL?

You nailed it. Couldn't agree more.

Quote:

variance

Heh, there's lot of confusion about this. Especially if you mix some random recent posts (FTR, 2+2, ...) with 'old' books and stickies.

The big picture:
I already posted some math formulas in similar thread before, but to cut the long story short there are two factors that affect the variance:

1) Standard Deviation - the lower the SD the lower the swings. Typical SD numbers (I'll stick to 6max) for FL is ~20BBs while typical NL is ~40BB. So, NL appears to be much swing-ier and it perfectly makes sense since you can always go all in (and more so with deep stacks) while at limit all the bets are ... limited.

2) Win Rate - the higher the win rate the lower the swings. This is also part of the reason why higher stakes guys tend and advocate to have deeper BRs. They play against more skilled opponents and their edge is smaller => variance is higher. (the other part being that higher stakes games are typically more aggressive => the more the aggression the higher the SD => the bigger the swings)

FL or NL?
IT DEPENDS! (what did you expect

). Seriously though it's totally wrong thinking in terms of what has more or less variance. If you play micro NL against very bad and very passive players routinely stacking off with TP(who cares)K then your SD is low and WR is high. Obviously variance will be low which also means you don't need deep BR to play there. Playing FL in the same environment (proportionally same stakes) is less optimal only because FL win rates are typically limited - you can't have 10BB/100 as in NL. Now take different example, aforementioned NL400 and FL 4/8 - most NL400 regs are in the 2BB/100 range, games are tougher and more aggressive, SD goes up to 50BB ... at the same time our FL player also faces some tougher regs, win rate is in the 1BB/100 range, SD is a little higher, maybe like 25BB ... bearing in mind that SD is much more (exponentially) important than WR, I'd say FL becomes more profitable here. Remember that FL players generate more rake (more RB) and that BR requirements for FL are much lower BB-wise than for NL.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

... but i DO feel the need to tip. i mean, sheeeet, she controls my cards for christ's sake....lol)

Agreed. It is unwise to piss off doomswitch operator.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

you may also agree with me that the fish will slide back this direction once they give LHE a shot and find they can stick around long enough to get lucky easier than at NL. and, they can play higher stakes because they dont need to bring as much to the table.

I can really see this happening. Just think about it: NL games of today are tough as hell with all those training sites, massive-tabling nits, etc. And what typical fish does when they get owned too hard ... they try something different! In fact (being one of rare players who play both FL and NL) I've often played against same players NL one day, then FL another. Needless to say they all sucked

BennyLaRue

12-29-2008, 01:32 PM

#21 (permalink)

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BennyLaRue is a glorious beacon of light

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrivingDog

Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

Well, LHE can also give you a hudge downswing

There's nothing worse than a hudge downswing...

I hit a fudge downswing in my life once. Very depressing. Had to supplement with peanut brittle.

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