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Tom Atoe

03-23-2006, 06:16 AM Post subject: Win Rates

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Mar 2006

Posts: 6

Hello I am new to FTR and I have a few questions. First of all I was curious as to how many BB/100 a good player could earn at .50/1 and 1/2? Also not to stir up a debate but at NL with the same bankroll what stakes would you play at, and how many BB/100 is realistic? Im sure these questions have been asked before but I would appreciate some responses from some winning players, and I hope to become a regular poster here at FTR! Thanks and see you at the tables.
-Tom Atoe

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ihategnomes

03-23-2006, 04:35 PM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: Louisiana

Posts: 1,225

1BB/100 ok, buy SSH
2BB/100 decent player
3BB/100 killing the game

as stakes go up, 2BB/100 is killing a game.

Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
<Bbickes> i still wanna know if the thing in your avatar is a real chick or not
<Bbickes> or am i e-crushing a dude

chardrian

03-23-2006, 05:47 PM

#3 (permalink)

I rarely,if ever, get pms

Join Date: Apr 2005

Posts: 4,524

Around what level does 2BB/100 start to be considered killing it?

http://chardrian.blogspot.com
come check out my training videos at pokerpwnage.com

ihategnomes

03-23-2006, 05:56 PM

#4 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: Louisiana

Posts: 1,225

probably 2/4 and up. I really good play that has no business playing 2/4 could be the game for more tho.

Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
<Bbickes> i still wanna know if the thing in your avatar is a real chick or not
<Bbickes> or am i e-crushing a dude

Kessler

03-23-2006, 07:52 PM

#5 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: Las Vegas

Posts: 117

Quote:

Originally Posted by ihategnomes

probably 2/4 and up. I really good play that has no business playing 2/4 could be the game for more tho.

The pots too fold for an online read.

If you can't be kind, at least have the decency to be vague.

ihategnomes

03-23-2006, 08:02 PM

#6 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: Louisiana

Posts: 1,225

I cant type as fast as my mind can think

Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
<Bbickes> i still wanna know if the thing in your avatar is a real chick or not
<Bbickes> or am i e-crushing a dude

drmcboy

03-23-2006, 08:10 PM

#7 (permalink)

DrButtInski
Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2004

Posts: 9,601

nh!

chardrian

03-27-2006, 06:06 PM

#8 (permalink)

I rarely,if ever, get pms

Join Date: Apr 2005

Posts: 4,524

How many hands do you need to get a fairly accurate representation as to how you should be beating a game in the future?

I know 10k is usually given as an answer for a minimum amount of hands to give you a reasonable predictor, but what's more reasonable? 20k, 50k hands?

I.e. after how many hands can you reasonably say that if I have been winning x BBs/100 at X site at X level, I will continue to do so?

http://chardrian.blogspot.com
come check out my training videos at pokerpwnage.com

euphoricism

03-27-2006, 06:15 PM

#9 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005

Location: Your place or my place

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chardrian - we've had this discussion, and we HATE this discussion ;]

To be "statistically" accurate, your sample size needs to be massive. By massive we're talking 200k+ hands. Some people will throw out numbers as high as 5-700k.

However, problem with that is that your first 100k hands will play very different from your last 100k hands. Youre a different player, by the theory that hopefully you learned a bit coming down the road.

So essentially, in limit, take any notion of xbb/100 and throw it out the window. We dont care. You dont care. No one cares. Its useless, and means relatively zilch.

We've all had streaks where we're losers or break evern for 20,000 hands. So, I'd say by about 50k-60k hands you'd have an idea if you were "winning" or "losing", but the bb/100 scale is too highly variable to worry about.

A good rule to live by in poker is always be wary of using past gains as an expectation for future gains.

<Staxalax> Honestly, #flopturnriver is the one thing that has improved my game the most.
Directions to join the #flopturnriver Internet Relay Chat - Come chat with us!

chardrian

03-27-2006, 07:00 PM

#10 (permalink)

I rarely,if ever, get pms

Join Date: Apr 2005

Posts: 4,524

sorry - haven't been following the threads in this section much lately.

If BB/100 means zilch, how can one say that 1BB/100 is ok, 2BB/100 is decent and 3BB/100 is killing it?

I understand that BB/100 should hopefully increase the longer you play, as you will hopefully be getting better.

And at this point, I don't really care about anything other than my bottom line - which is my total bankroll. And I am going to continue to try and keep thinking of my sessions as just one big overall session. But I also want to make sure I am staying on the right track.

http://chardrian.blogspot.com
come check out my training videos at pokerpwnage.com

ihategnomes

03-27-2006, 08:19 PM

#11 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: Louisiana

Posts: 1,225

Then evalute your game instead of your BB/100. Filter for hands outside of the blind. Check and see how much you are losing in the blinds. Filter for specific psotions and filters. Then when you come across something that doesnt seem to add up post and we will help.

Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
<Bbickes> i still wanna know if the thing in your avatar is a real chick or not
<Bbickes> or am i e-crushing a dude

chardrian

03-27-2006, 08:39 PM

#12 (permalink)

I rarely,if ever, get pms

Join Date: Apr 2005

Posts: 4,524

Hard to filter without pokertracker.

I am playing 5 max Limit at Dise - pokertracker sucks there, but then again so do most of the Dise players.

http://chardrian.blogspot.com
come check out my training videos at pokerpwnage.com

ihategnomes

03-27-2006, 08:47 PM

#13 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: Louisiana

Posts: 1,225

Im at a loss for words. Playing limit without pokertracker is like wearing a raincoat in the shower.

Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
<Bbickes> i still wanna know if the thing in your avatar is a real chick or not
<Bbickes> or am i e-crushing a dude

chardrian

03-27-2006, 08:59 PM

#14 (permalink)

I rarely,if ever, get pms

Join Date: Apr 2005

Posts: 4,524

I know it's a valuable tool.

I know I keep saying I'm going to get it. And I still might.

But... is it possible you guys put too much value into it?

http://chardrian.blogspot.com
come check out my training videos at pokerpwnage.com

ihategnomes

03-27-2006, 09:02 PM

#15 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: Louisiana

Posts: 1,225

Nope.

Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
<Bbickes> i still wanna know if the thing in your avatar is a real chick or not
<Bbickes> or am i e-crushing a dude

chardrian

03-27-2006, 09:09 PM

#16 (permalink)

I rarely,if ever, get pms

Join Date: Apr 2005

Posts: 4,524

damn my read really is good. That's exactly what I was expecting as an answer.

Myabe it's cuz my reading skills are enhanced through necessity without pokertracker or maybe it's cuz it's true (I lean towards the latter).

Ok ok - I'll get the damn tracker.... if I ever start playing limit anywhere besides Dise.

http://chardrian.blogspot.com
come check out my training videos at pokerpwnage.com

midas06

03-27-2006, 09:15 PM

#17 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: NZ

Posts: 2,196

Chard, if you don't mind me asking, why are you sticking with Dise? You get less hands in/hour because of the slower software, their rebuys suck because it's raked, and the tables are 5max (although this may just be one of my pet peeves since 5maxers tended to run at 4 for a majority of the time at PR).

chardrian

03-27-2006, 09:24 PM

#18 (permalink)

I rarely,if ever, get pms

Join Date: Apr 2005

Posts: 4,524

Cuz I win at Dise.

I am not quick smart like the rest of you whipper snappers. Multitabling for me = 2 tables. More than that and I go kaput. So the slow software means little to me Limit wise. I get between 250-300 hands an hour and I am comfortable with that.

I love 5 max tables - I like them much better than 6 max.

The slow software impedes tourney play, I agree. But the $30 rebuy is a good value, and I'm playing that mofo until I win it.

I know that I should open my game and play at other sites. Next downswing I probably will. When I do, I will get pokertracker as well.

http://chardrian.blogspot.com
come check out my training videos at pokerpwnage.com

pokerfanatic

03-27-2006, 09:38 PM

#19 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: 6max limit tables

Posts: 1,968

meah you can read players without PT, PAHud est just not over 4 tables, I think my record for getting reads right at multiple table 90% of the time was at 2 tables... really it's more a tool to find leaks in your game and to help find leaks in others players games...

“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~

"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord

euphoricism

03-27-2006, 10:17 PM

#20 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005

Location: Your place or my place

Posts: 3,610

I often do better with no PT PAhud two-tabling than I do with PT PAhud quadding. When I'm quad tabling I have no reads whatsoever. Playing blind is playing dumb.

Ther is nothing wrong with only playing two tables for the rest of your life. There's always seemed to be a rush to quad/six/8table... well, its generally not worth it if your game suffers.

9 tabling 3/6 BBJP is teh sexy, though.

As to your bb/100, well I dunno who decided 1 was good, two was awesome, and three was OMGHAVESEXWITHME. Don't worry about it. Your bottom line is far more important than your winrate. If you're a 1bb/100 player or a 2bb/100 or a 5bb/100 player for that matter, it makes no practical difference.

Its all the same: If you want more money, you gotta play more poker.

<Staxalax> Honestly, #flopturnriver is the one thing that has improved my game the most.
Directions to join the #flopturnriver Internet Relay Chat - Come chat with us!

Nehmer

03-27-2006, 10:56 PM

#21 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Oct 2004

Location: Decatur, IL

Posts: 666

Quote:

Originally Posted by euphoricism

I often do better with no PT PAhud two-tabling than I do with PT PAhud quadding. When I'm quad tabling I have no reads whatsoever. Playing blind is playing dumb.

I never use a hud anymore...gametime+ or PAhud. I have found that I tend to get a much better feel for who the maniac/fish at a table are without using the hud. It seems like I tend to get too many false reads with the huds where players have improved since I started getting stats for them or just went on a monster rush of good cards. Then that leads to me trying to make plays on them that I normally wouldn't and just not doing very good...Which is my own fault I'm sure, but I can avoid it by not using a hud, so I do

Demiparadigm

03-28-2006, 01:18 AM

#22 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2005

Location: Party 6 max

Posts: 1,602

>0BB/100 is killing the game.

0 to -10 is average

< -10 you have a leak.

There is no way to determine your "actual" winrate in the future. There is no way to predict how you will run or how you will play.
You can only tell how you have done in the past.

Let's do some math:

lets say we have a limit player with a 2BB/100 "true"win rate, and a 20BB/100 standard deviation.

How long will it take for his actual win to be GREATER THAN ZERO 99% of the time?

(2.3*20/2)^2 = 529*100 = 52,900 hands

So there is still a 1% chance that he will be down money at the end of FIFTY THREE THOUSAND hands.
All of us who have played for some time have had runs >2000 hands where we were down a SIGNIFICANT amount.

Now the specific question takes some more work:

How many hands must be played in order to accurately know one's winrate within +/- .1BB/100, assuming respective standard variations of 10BB/100 and 20BB/100?

It depends on what level of confidence you want. I will compute this for 95% confidence and 99% confidence, but you probably won’t achieve 0.1 bb/100 accuracy in your lifetime at these levels.

The standard error (SE) of the win rate is always SD/sqrt(N/100), where SD is the standard deviation for 100 hands, and N is the number of hands. For 95% confidence, we need 0.1 bb to be about 1.96 standard errors. For 99% confidence, we need 0.1 bb to be about 2.58 standard errors. These are from a table of the standard normal distribution, on a Gaussian curve.
Call this number s, for the number of standard errors. Then we have:

0.1 = s*SD/sqrt(N/100)

N = 100*(s*SD/0.1)^2

We can use this equation to get the following results:

95% confidence:
For SD = 20 bb/100, N =~ 15.4 million hands.
For SD = 10 bb/100, N =~ 3.8 million hands.

99% confidence:
For SD = 20 bb/100, N =~ 26.5 million hands.
For SD = 10 bb/100, N =~ 6.6 million hands.

This is not just "200K+" it is a whole hell of a lot more. You may want to care a bit less about what your "true win rate" is.

To the OP: for an in depth discussion of bankroll differences see this thread:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-22364.htm

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

thenonsequitur

03-28-2006, 05:33 AM

#23 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Nov 2004

Location: Location: Location

Posts: 637

Regarding the HUD discussion, I am also one of those people that never uses them. I tried it for a period of a week once and it significantly hurt my game. Peoples' playing styles change, sometimes drastically, and sometimes from day to day or otherwise frequently. Loose players sometimes learn to fold after a bunch of losses; TAGs sometimes go on tilt. You just can't put too much faith in stats gathered during other sessions (especially when the sample sizes are so low for most of your opponents). I'm perfectly happy 2-tabling (or 3-tabling if the tables are slow), and gathering all my reads the old fashioned way.

Quote:

Originally Posted by chardrian

But... is it possible you guys put too much value into [Poker Tracker]?

I'm going to jump off the bandwagon here and say that yes, poker tracker is overrated. It is a great tool (and very affordable for the value you can get out of it), but not absolutely necessary. I think plugging leaks is best done through hand-by-hand analysis (of course, poker tracker can help you with this too). I'm still an advocate of poker tracker, and I use it, but it's not like you can't be a good player without it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

N =~ 26.5 million hands.

Damn, I've only played 19.8 million hands so far. 6.7 million more is going to take me, like, at least a week.

elipsesjeff

03-28-2006, 07:09 AM

#24 (permalink)

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Posts: 4,900

elipsesjeff is an unknown quantity at this point

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenonsequitur

Quote:

Originally Posted by chardrian

But... is it possible you guys put too much value into [Poker Tracker]?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

N =~ 26.5 million hands.

Damn, I've only played 19.8 million hands so far. 6.7 million more is going to take me, like, at least a week.

Most people use HUD for reasons than they shouldn't, making that calldown based on those stats over what has happened at the table is a bad idea. HOWEVER, HUDs are awesome and PT is the best way to learn about your game. HUDs are the best way to find tables and use adequate seat and table selection. I will all but guarantee that those people that use HUDs, and use them affectively, will win more money in the long wrong run those who do not.

Poker Tracker is a must for LHE play. It is the best way to plug leaks. Once you get the hang of it and know exactly how to figure out your leaks. I mean, someone without PT will never have a clue that they are hemoraging money from the blinds or are colding calling a hair too much, etc etc.

Those that refuse to get PT or are too lazy to really evaluate your game, are too lazy to actually be a professional at this game IMO. If thats your goal then by all means don't get it.

Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com

More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.

thenonsequitur

03-28-2006, 01:00 PM

#25 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Nov 2004

Location: Location: Location

Posts: 637

Quote:

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

HUDs are the best way to find tables and use adequate seat and table selection.

While this is probably true, I can usually get a hang of whether a table will be good or not by just looking at it for a minute. And after an orbit or two of playing on a given table, I can always get up if it turns out to not be as good as it seemed like it would. I should probably start using a HUD for this though, as it is probably more efficient and less error-prone than searching without it. Also, during play I tend to keep a history window open so I can see people's mucked hands; a HUD makes this easier as well, so that's another good reason to use a HUD. As far as realtime stat displays, however, I just don't find them much help (and they can be detrimental if you trust the stats in place of gathering regular reads, instead of using the stats as another peice of info to apply to the regular reads).

Quote:

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Those that refuse to get PT or are too lazy to really evaluate your game, are too lazy to actually be a professional at this game IMO. If thats your goal then by all means don't get it.

It's true that those that are "too lazy to really evaluate" their game are not going to get much better. But I disagree that the statement is valid when you tack on "refuse to get PT" as an additional clause. Refusing to get/use PT and not really evaluating your game are two different things I think. I still think that simple hand anylsis can get you far.

Without poker tracker you will definitely be missing some important information, and you will be making less money. But I disagree that PT evalutaion and anlysis is necessary to be a professional at this game (some sort of evaluation and anylsis is necessary, PT isn't the only way though).

Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting that people don't use poker tracker. I use it and have found it very valuable. All I was saying is that I just think it's overrated. Of course, it's quite possible that I hold this opinion becuase I haven't learned how to extract maximum value out of this tool.

saywhat2

03-28-2006, 11:22 PM Post subject: Thanks for the post

#26 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Jan 2006

Posts: 113

Quote:

Originally Posted by euphoricism

This post has really helped me. I am 28,000 hands into my fixed limit venture. After the first 15,000 I said wow this game is easy I was at 3.5 BBper 100 and flying high. Well the last 13000 have been a total turn around. As Of last night I was up 38 dollars in my last 13,000 hands. Today I lost with queens full twice in the same hour. This didnt happen once in the first 15,000 hands. I think I will bring it to 50,000 before I really make some decisions. The only difference I see in my stats from the first 15,000 as opposed to the last 13,000 is I am more aggresive on the flop and River and a little less aggresive on the turn.

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