Originally Posted by Fnord

Lucky Granny played her hand well until she missed an easy river bet or check/raise.

Originally Posted by Zinnsoldaten

Do you mean drawing to 2nd pair + runner flush if it's a known stealer?

Originally Posted by Zinnsoldaten

My point is that the T9 doesn't warrant a flp-call, though - if we say that villain holds at least one face-card.

Has he been caught stealing with 75o or 65s, well that's another story.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Straight out of HEFAP (p193). Ignore the top card and call with ANYTHING if you're against an aggressive steal. If you're willing to steal with J7o, her draw certainly warrents a call as a Ten or Nine will often make the best hand.

This is why you need to consider who you're up against before making this play. Players like this will often stumble into the right decisions.

Originally Posted by dsaxton

This seems kind of strange. If the assumption is that a middle pair will be enough to win the pot, why don't you raise on a bluff?

Originally Posted by dsaxton

This seems better than investing money on a draw that might not even be good, and risking losing to a high card or something.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Do you consider undercards outs if you hit you are a guarantee to win?

If not, then what are they?

Originally Posted by Fnord

Last I checked, showdown was after 5 community cards where out, not 3.

Given the pot size and steal situation I certainly think a flop call is reasonable here.

Guys who fold too much with position on me are always great to have at the table...

Originally Posted by Zinnsoldaten

Hm, sry - I don't quite follow. I said above that T:s and 9:s should have some outs discounted, because they're no guaranteed win.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

What do you think his chances of having that K is? You think he is more likely to have it than I do. Fnord quoted HEPFAP telling you to act like the King isnt there. So, your 9 and T become full outs because they too are likely not dominated, not to mention runner runner flush and even runner runner straight. Against a blind steal you have 9 good outs here.

The turn brings two more pieces of information: It even further decreases the likelihood your opponent has a King and it gives you a flush draw. You need to work more on blind defense.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

What do you think his chances of having that K is? You think he is more likely to have it than I do. Fnord quoted HEPFAP telling you to act like the King isnt there. So, your 9 and T become full outs because they too are likely not dominated, not to mention runner runner flush and even runner runner straight. Against a blind steal you have 9 good outs here.

The turn brings two more pieces of information: It even further decreases the likelihood your opponent has a King and it gives you a flush draw. You need to work more on blind defense.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Yes, I know, 9 outs. Do you see why?

6 outs for the 3 9s and 3 10s, 1.5 outs for the runner runner flush, 1.5 outs for the runner runner straight.

Originally Posted by chardrian

Ok - I'm having problems with runner runners being 1.5 outs. Please explain. In my mind you have about a 1 in 6 shot to hit a heart and about the same for a J or Q on the turn. But since you need to hit both runners to win u actually only have about a 1 in 36 shot for either to happen (i.e. even with a heart you need another one and even with a Q u need the J) - in fact the chances of hitting the straight are even worse since even if you hit the J or Q you would only have 4 added outs on the turn, whereas getting a heart gives you 8 extra outs. Or about 3% from the flop to the river which to me is less than 1 out. I would count it is as .75 outs since .75 x 4 (2 for turn and 2 for river) = 3. So I don't see how I can give the flush and straight runner runner draws I have more than 2 outs (hence my 7-8 out description).

Why is my thinking wrong?

To me your 6 outs for the 9 and T remain constant but your outs for the flush and straight have to be discounted since they are dependent on each other.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Read SSH for more info about Backdoor outs.

Originally Posted by chardrian

Boo - you can do better than that. Why is it 9 outs and not somewhere between 7 and 8?

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Are you folding in this instance if it is 7 or if it is 8? No.

Originally Posted by chardrian

That is very true - but if my read is right, I think it also means you are agreeing that it aint 9 outs.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

What I am saying is it doesnt really matter. According to SSH, its 9 outs. If you want to discount them, more power to you.

Either way you aren't folding and it really has no basis on any decision.

Originally Posted by chardrian

I agree it doesn't matter, and it's not worth getting into a pissing match over.

The reason I asked how you got to the 9 outs was becuase the thought proces behind the counting of the outs does seem important. I wasn't asking to be directed to a book, I was hoping that someone could tell me why my thought process was wrong, which is why I described how I got to my 7-8 outs.

I guess my real question is why do you count the runner runner as 1.5 outs on the flop? I still see it as .75 (which I round up to one). Is it because if you do hit a runner on the turn you then suddenly get an increase of 8-9 outs?

For whatever reason I am much more comfortable conceptualizing pot odds with outs equaling percentages (basically I go by the outs x 2 = % formula). I went backwards by percentages to get the outs for runner runners, but since you need to go back two cards the 3% gets divided by 4 ratehr than 2.

Anywyas... after actually going through that hand - no I'm not folding, yes I'm raising the river.

Originally Posted by Nehmer

The reason that runner-runner counts as more outs than it seems like it should is because they are very easy to play. If you miss the turn, you only wasted a small bet to find out, but if you hit the turn, you have a MUCH better draw on the streets that matter. That is why they should count as more outs than what they probably should mathematically be.

Originally Posted by Fnord

The flush number is correct, no adjustments for simplicity. I don't think a runner straight is worth 1.5 outs unless it's 3 in a row and even then it's probably closer to 1 (wins less often and 1 fewer out.)

Originally Posted by chardrian

Ok - now I'm back to why then? Why is it 1.5 outs and not .75 outs? Math me up someone please. Is it really a 6% percent chance to hit runner runner flush? I still say it's 3%. And that's 3% by the flop to hit your flush on the river. So it's not 3 divided by 2 it's 3 divided by 4 to get your outs. Where am I wrong?

Originally Posted by Fnord

The flush number is correct, no adjustments for simplicity. I don't think a runner straight is worth 1.5 outs unless it's 3 in a row and even then it's probably closer to 1 (wins less often and 1 fewer out.)

Originally Posted by Zinnsoldaten

So, between 4-6 outs for a pair and 2-3 outs for flush/straight? (I actually managed to miss the straight last night) I believe 5.5 outs would suffice for a break-even play, so I guess we're good.

Originally Posted by koolmoe

Mathematically, a runner runner flush counts as 1.91 outs. The math is as follows:

Probability of turn card of your suit * Probability of river card of your suit

= (10/47)*(9/46) = 0.04163 or 4.163%

Multiply that by 46 to convert to outs (as opposed to probability

0.04163*46 = 1.91

In practice, it is wise to discount these outs a bit whenever you are not holding a nut flush possibility. King Yao, in Weighing the Odds in Hold'em Poker, suggests counting 2 for a nut draw, 1.5 for a 2nd or 3rd nut draw, and 1 for all others. I usually just use 1.5 for simplicity.