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why we dont slowplay..
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Chopper
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02-22-2009, 02:08 PM
Post subject: why we dont slowplay..
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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LC to be sure. just an "example hand." not intended to be a brag...cuz it's nuttin' special.
PokerStars Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Preflop: Hero is BB with 6 , 5
3 folds, SB calls, Hero checks
Flop: (2 SB) 7 , 4 , 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls
Turn: (2 BB) 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls
River: (4 BB) K (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, Hero caps, SB calls
Total pot: $6 (12 BB) | Rake: $0.25
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Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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LawDude
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02-22-2009, 05:58 PM
Post subject: Re: why we dont slowplay..
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#2 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chopper
LC to be sure. just an "example hand." not intended to be a brag...cuz it's nuttin' special.
PokerStars Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Preflop: Hero is BB with 6  , 5
3 folds, SB calls, Hero checks
Flop: (2 SB) 7  , 4  , 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls
Turn: (2 BB) 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls
River: (4 BB) K (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, Hero caps, SB calls
Total pot: $6 (12 BB) | Rake: $0.25
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It's more complicated than "we don't slowplay".
What is your read of SB's hand here? Does he have a pair on the flop (in which case he needs 2 cards to draw out a better hand to you? Does he have a straight draw, e.g., 96, T9, JT? Does he have two pair? A set? In the latter 3 situations, I agree that slowplay is a very bad idea because you aren't putting any price on his draws.
And what type of player is he? If he's a calling station (and that's certainly the way he played this hand until the river), that's fine. If he misreads the strength of your hand (which clearly happened here too), that's also fine. But when you say "we don't slowplay", you are ignoring that there are other players with, e.g., top pair, on this board who will fold if you bet the flop but who may take a shot at you on later streets if you check to them.
As I indicated in my post on the beginner's circle forum, we slowplay when, based on our reads, all 3 of these facts are present: (1) Villain is highly unlikely to draw out on us, (2) Villain is likely to fold to a bet, and (3) Villain is likely to bet if we check to him. You were right not to slowplay this hand, as (2) was clearly not true and (1) may not have been either. But if you can do the reads necessary to slowplay effectively, it can be a good strategy in certain instances.
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Airles™
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 317
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I've found it's almost meaningless to slow-play at low stakes because these loose-passives will call with AN-Y-THING. And of course flopping the nuts on a rainbow board is never a bad thing except in this case he could be drawing to a higher straight. I don't fall victim to FPS here, I just bet, bet, bet.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Carroters
The solution to getting 1 outered is a simple one. We just need to find the site that is the least rigged.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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not to be a complete smartass, lawdude, but...
what kind of hand does villain have here? ATC. its a blind war...with limps. literally, ATC....maybe not 23-29, 34-38, 46-48..ish. and those are off suit. suited, he plays.
does he have a pair? draw? AIR? ...who knows. we have ZERO information here.
but, the trick is that WE flopped a straight. most passive, or tricky, players see this flop and think they have to let villain "catch up." they completely disregard the fact he may, in fact, have flopped something....or think we are completely FOS and making a move. again, we dont know anything yet. so, we lead out w/ that sb and hope to get a call or raise. what folds here most times folds the turn, too. so, GET THAT BET.
what type of player is he? again, we dont know. i didnt give a read, which means i dont have one to give. so, we assume since he didnt raise the SB, he is either the typical loose/passive or he has jackcrap. probably both to be honest.
i'm sorry, lawdude, and again i am not being a smartass. but, this is a simple scenario. the stakes REEK of stations. villain could be what you mention, but, he could have also flopped two pair with his random cards, too. i like to assume the latter and grab those bets. if he has a pair, he will likely let us know....setting up a raise on the turn. if he catches later, he will likely think he's good and let us know that, too.
the only way to make a big pot from a big hand when the SB limps into you is to play your "big" hands fast and hope they get action.
this is simply NOT the spot to slowplay....i dont care what your read of villain is. and, it IS that simple.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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Unless villian has a hand like J2soooted he is rarely folding this flop. He will either have a pair, a gutshot, or two overs, and occasionally two pair or a set and he will usually at least call with all of those and raise with some of the better hands.
The turn is a blank but you still see people calling again with overs in small pots. All you can do is bet and hope he calls or raises.
River is pay off time because now he just hit two pair or whatever and is going apeshit because this is .25/.50 and he's expecting us to slowplay a better hand because that's what he probably would do.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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BennyLaRue
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 646
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Hard and fast rules like "don't slowplay" are faulty, imo. Slowplaying straights is not as +ev as betting out though, I agree. It's not just because opp will call as the straight is easily disguised, which I think is your point, but also because straights are much more vulnerable than other big hands. Look in PT or HEM how many times you've lost with a flopped straight and you'll cry.
There are occasions, however, when slowplaying flopped nut flushes, boats and, of course, quads, is optimal.
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Airles™
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 317
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
There are occasions, however, when slowplaying flopped nut flushes, boats and, of course, quads, is optimal.
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Anyone see on HSP when Eli Elezra flopped quad Aces and bet out on the flop? That took the cake.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Carroters
The solution to getting 1 outered is a simple one. We just need to find the site that is the least rigged.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Airles™
Quote:
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Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
There are occasions, however, when slowplaying flopped nut flushes, boats and, of course, quads, is optimal.
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Anyone see on HSP when Eli Elezra flopped quad Aces and bet out on the flop? That took the cake.
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often times leading out IS a slowplay.....ducy? maybe not by definition, but its just as "trappy."
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
Hard and fast rules like "don't slowplay" are faulty, imo. Slowplaying straights is not as +ev as betting out though, I agree. It's not just because opp will call as the straight is easily disguised, which I think is your point, but also because straights are much more vulnerable than other big hands. Look in PT or HEM how many times you've lost with a flopped straight and you'll cry.
There are occasions, however, when slowplaying flopped nut flushes, boats and, of course, quads, is optimal.
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That's the point I was making, about the hard and fast rule.
I agree that (1) this hand was perfectly played by Hero, (2) slowplaying is rarely (though not never!) effective at low stakes, and (3) straights are almost always (though not always!) not good to slowplay.
But that's different from saying "we don't slowplay". It was the categorical statement I was resisting.
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BennyLaRue
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 646
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chopper
often times leading out IS a slowplay.....
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Wat?
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Airles™
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 317
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chopper
often times leading out IS a slowplay.....
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Wat?
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I think he meant by leading out on an AAx flop when you're holding AA in the hole was a slowplay because 99% of players would check-call this like always and other players at the table would perceive his bet as trying to steal the pot by "representing" an Ace. Just my .02
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Carroters
The solution to getting 1 outered is a simple one. We just need to find the site that is the least rigged.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chopper
often times leading out IS a slowplay.....
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Wat?
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lol. i knew this would be taken too literally, hence...
Quote:
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often times leading out IS a slowplay.....ducy? maybe not by definition, but its just as "trappy."
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aires has me pegged. if you flop quads, its natural to slowplay. so, by leading out, you are throwing off your opponent. obv, this isnt a slowplay, technically, but all a slowplay is is being ultra tricky.....and leading quads becomes ultra tricky.
extreme example, and obviously beating the horse to death now, but i see that all the time with flopped sets....even on drawy boards....so, to throw villains off, leading out becomes the new "deceptive" way to play a set in a lot of cases.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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BennyLaRue
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 646
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chopper
Quote:
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Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chopper
often times leading out IS a slowplay.....
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Wat?
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lol. i knew this would be taken too literally, hence...
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Yeah, I knew what you were trying to get at with the deception comment. But no matter how you explain it, leading out isn't a slowplay just as a fish isn't a bike.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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then, why call out the technicality if you know that i know that you know that i know?
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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arborman
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 300
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There is a place in Limit SNGs for the slowplay, but rarely in a ring game.
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asdpikas
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,056
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As a general rule. Don't slowplay HU! It will cost you more than what extra bets you may get the times it works.
You need a veeeeery good reason/read to do this. I will only do this HU as part of an exploitive strategy vs villains that are too aggro/bluffy, and only in position to let him keep betting. Multiway pots are a different story.
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"could I take out every woman and child in a border town?"
For the right to be governed, waste them without mercy.
When you've decided. Meet me at the airport.
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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I did slowplay a hand yesterday in 9/18 limit. I had pocket jacks, raised pre-flop and got one caller in the small blind. The flop was T77. Small blind checked, I bet, small blind called. Turn was a J. We both checked. River was a 4. Small blind bet, I raised, small blind called, and mucked his cards after I showed.
I was following my rules on slowplay. This guy was either drawing dead on the turn or had at most 2 outs (and it wasn't likely he even had that). Since he checked to me on the flop and the turn, and my read was that he was a nit, I thought it was quite possible that he would fold to a bet on the turn. However, if I checked, he might think I was on a draw or just had a pair of 10's, and I might have a chance to pick up a call on the river. Of course, it worked better than expected because he bet into me on the river (which I did not really expect).
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asdpikas
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,056
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by LawDude
I did slowplay a hand yesterday in 9/18 limit. I had pocket jacks, raised pre-flop and got one caller in the small blind. The flop was T77. Small blind checked, I bet, small blind called. Turn was a J. We both checked. River was a 4. Small blind bet, I raised, small blind called, and mucked his cards after I showed.
I was following my rules on slowplay. This guy was either drawing dead on the turn or had at most 2 outs (and it wasn't likely he even had that). Since he checked to me on the flop and the turn, and my read was that he was a nit, I thought it was quite possible that he would fold to a bet on the turn. However, if I checked, he might think I was on a draw or just had a pair of 10's, and I might have a chance to pick up a call on the river. Of course, it worked better than expected because he bet into me on the river (which I did not really expect).
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Clearly, you would've got at least the same value if you bet the turn. His bet/call means he had something.
The trouble is he may have had a 7 and be waiting to c/r the turn. After you raise his river lead, he should just call fearing a better sloplayed hand (he figures if you bluff raise you dont call a 3bet, if you are sloplaying u cap his ass).
Also bad if he has 98s where he would've called a turn bet and either c/r/c or b/c river.
But had you bet the turn many good things may have happened:
1. he has 7x and you get 3bets in on the turn
2. he has air but tries a move
3. he has a PP or overcards or a draw with which he may still call a turn bet but give up on the river
4. he has 98s and you get 1-2 more bets in
etc...
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by asdpikas
Quote:
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Originally Posted by LawDude
I did slowplay a hand yesterday in 9/18 limit. I had pocket jacks, raised pre-flop and got one caller in the small blind. The flop was T77. Small blind checked, I bet, small blind called. Turn was a J. We both checked. River was a 4. Small blind bet, I raised, small blind called, and mucked his cards after I showed.
I was following my rules on slowplay. This guy was either drawing dead on the turn or had at most 2 outs (and it wasn't likely he even had that). Since he checked to me on the flop and the turn, and my read was that he was a nit, I thought it was quite possible that he would fold to a bet on the turn. However, if I checked, he might think I was on a draw or just had a pair of 10's, and I might have a chance to pick up a call on the river. Of course, it worked better than expected because he bet into me on the river (which I did not really expect).
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Clearly, you would've got at least the same value if you bet the turn. His bet/call means he had something.
The trouble is he may have had a 7 and be waiting to c/r the turn. After you raise his river lead, he should just call fearing a better sloplayed hand (he figures if you bluff raise you dont call a 3bet, if you are sloplaying u cap his ass).
Also bad if he has 98s where he would've called a turn bet and either c/r/c or b/c river.
But had you bet the turn many good things may have happened:
1. he has 7x and you get 3bets in on the turn
2. he has air but tries a move
3. he has a PP or overcards or a draw with which he may still call a turn bet but give up on the river
4. he has 98s and you get 1-2 more bets in
etc...
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No, didn't . He was betting the river because he thought I was weak, i.e., that I might have AK or something. He called because he figured he was in for a penny, in for a pound. If I bet the turn, he folds.
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by asdpikas
Quote:
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Originally Posted by LawDude
I did slowplay a hand yesterday in 9/18 limit. I had pocket jacks, raised pre-flop and got one caller in the small blind. The flop was T77. Small blind checked, I bet, small blind called. Turn was a J. We both checked. River was a 4. Small blind bet, I raised, small blind called, and mucked his cards after I showed.
I was following my rules on slowplay. This guy was either drawing dead on the turn or had at most 2 outs (and it wasn't likely he even had that). Since he checked to me on the flop and the turn, and my read was that he was a nit, I thought it was quite possible that he would fold to a bet on the turn. However, if I checked, he might think I was on a draw or just had a pair of 10's, and I might have a chance to pick up a call on the river. Of course, it worked better than expected because he bet into me on the river (which I did not really expect).
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Clearly, you would've got at least the same value if you bet the turn. His bet/call means he had something.
The trouble is he may have had a 7 and be waiting to c/r the turn. After you raise his river lead, he should just call fearing a better sloplayed hand (he figures if you bluff raise you dont call a 3bet, if you are sloplaying u cap his ass).
Also bad if he has 98s where he would've called a turn bet and either c/r/c or b/c river.
But had you bet the turn many good things may have happened:
1. he has 7x and you get 3bets in on the turn
2. he has air but tries a move
3. he has a PP or overcards or a draw with which he may still call a turn bet but give up on the river
4. he has 98s and you get 1-2 more bets in
etc...
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No, he didn't have a hand . He was betting the river because he thought I was weak, i.e., that I might have AK or something. He called because he figured he was in for a penny, in for a pound. If I bet the turn, he folds. Further, since he raised the river, I got the money that he would have hypothetically called on the turn anyway.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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what asd is saying is that while it worked this time, its neither here nor there against his apparent range given the information you had gathered.
once you fired that flop, and got called, you may as well fire that turn. slowplaying here isnt great imo, either. he may have the case J. he may be willing to chase his own AK to the river. he may have an underpair and think you are FOS. either way, you get that extra bet on the turn. that J doesnt look scary to anyone that called a flop cbet.
you may even get raised if he thinks you are FOS as a semibluff with overcards or a pp.
that hand is another example, imo, of why we dont slowplay. sure, you made what appears to be a great read. but, how often will you slowplay that and get a donk on the river? not as often as you will get your turn called.....and a river bet, too.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chopper
what asd is saying is that while it worked this time, its neither here nor there against his apparent range given the information you had gathered.
once you fired that flop, and got called, you may as well fire that turn. slowplaying here isnt great imo, either. he may have the case J. he may be willing to chase his own AK to the river. he may have an underpair and think you are FOS. either way, you get that extra bet on the turn. that J doesnt look scary to anyone that called a flop cbet.
you may even get raised if he thinks you are FOS as a semibluff with overcards or a pp.
that hand is another example, imo, of why we dont slowplay. sure, you made what appears to be a great read. but, how often will you slowplay that and get a donk on the river? not as often as you will get your turn called.....and a river bet, too.
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Well, slowplay is ENTIRELY a read-dictated thing. In fact, that was the single biggest point I made when I did my post on slowplaying.
The general thought of most poker players is "ooh, I flopped a big hand, better slowplay". That's dumb, it's awful, and it's what gets players in trouble.
But when my reads tell me that a player is far enough behind that he isn't going to catch up, will fold to a bet, and may put money into the pot if I slowplay, that is the ONLY situation when I slowplay.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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In limit unless you crush the board (against a lol post-flop tight opponent) you should always be value betting because so many hands must call.
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asdpikas
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,056
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by LawDude
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chopper
what asd is saying is that while it worked this time, its neither here nor there against his apparent range given the information you had gathered.
once you fired that flop, and got called, you may as well fire that turn. slowplaying here isnt great imo, either. he may have the case J. he may be willing to chase his own AK to the river. he may have an underpair and think you are FOS. either way, you get that extra bet on the turn. that J doesnt look scary to anyone that called a flop cbet.
you may even get raised if he thinks you are FOS as a semibluff with overcards or a pp.
that hand is another example, imo, of why we dont slowplay. sure, you made what appears to be a great read. but, how often will you slowplay that and get a donk on the river? not as often as you will get your turn called.....and a river bet, too.
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Well, slowplay is ENTIRELY a read-dictated thing. In fact, that was the single biggest point I made when I did my post on slowplaying.
The general thought of most poker players is "ooh, I flopped a big hand, better slowplay". That's dumb, it's awful, and it's what gets players in trouble.
But when my reads tell me that a player is far enough behind that he isn't going to catch up, will fold to a bet, and may put money into the pot if I slowplay, that is the ONLY situation when I slowplay.
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If you do an evaluation of villain's range, you will see why sloplaying was wrong.
Also, your read is not a read. Unless you want to correct your post. Saying he must be a nit cause he check/called flop and checked turn again is not much of a read.
Ok. Villain's range on SB goes something like this:
mainly 22-TT, AT-AQ, KJ+, KJs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, A2s+
adding a slight possibility of AA, KK, AK and some random hands
Given that board, most of his range will call down on such a dry board or call a turn bet but give up on the river, except the big hands (7x, 98s, TT...)
so, against most of his range, you win the same (sometimes 1BB less) with your line, while losing tons of action if he's trying for the turn c/r cause he hit big
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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This is in no way a criticism of FTR but I've noticed many posters' read analysis is 2 dimensional (probably because the software tools you guys use work this way).
I am on my mobile right now so I can't type a lot, but I carefully observe the betting patterns of every player at the table, for the express purpose of narrowing ranges. Absent that approach, you can end up assuming ranges that are way too broad and that the player would never play in the way that they did.
The particular player we are talking about would shut down and check when he didn't hit the flop, see a street or two, and fold. However he had attempted to steal 1 or 2 pots on the river with 3rd pair. He bet his made hands hard.
Now, that information doesn't input into pokerstove, but it does tell you something about what the player ACTUALLY had.
And this is really something I would emphasize here. I really think the software is great, and helps players a lot online (especially where people are multitabling). But it is no substitute for observation, and an observant player can sometimes put players on far more specific ranges. More important, we can anticipate a player's reaction to our action and use that to narrow further or reevaluate the player's range.
And slowplay strategy is contingent on THAT sort of observation. How far behind is he? What does he do if I bet? What does he do if I check? This goes a step beyond range and equity. And I would further suggest that this action/reaction game theory also applies to a lot of other poker decisions.
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asdpikas
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,056
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by LawDude
The particular player we are talking about would shut down and check when he didn't hit the flop, see a street or two, and fold. However he had attempted to steal 1 or 2 pots on the river with 3rd pair. He bet his made hands hard.
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And... We would know your reads/observations by guessing? or by divine intervention?
You didnt write any of that on your original post of the hand. You may call us 2dimensional, but you are no better by posting a hand, and adding the reads afterwards. You didnt even say where your raise came from. Where u UTG? where u in mid pos? where u on the btn?
That also changes the possible range for villain, pal.
With those reads, my criticism would have been less. Oh, and FYI, that is not sloplaying then, that is called INDUCING.
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by asdpikas
Quote:
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Originally Posted by LawDude
The particular player we are talking about would shut down and check when he didn't hit the flop, see a street or two, and fold. However he had attempted to steal 1 or 2 pots on the river with 3rd pair. He bet his made hands hard.
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And... We would know your reads/observations by guessing? or by divine intervention?
You didnt write any of that on your original post of the hand. You may call us 2dimensional, but you are no better by posting a hand, and adding the reads afterwards. You didnt even say where your raise came from. Where u UTG? where u in mid pos? where u on the btn?
That also changes the possible range for villain, pal.
With those reads, my criticism would have been less. Oh, and FYI, that is not sloplaying then, that is called INDUCING.
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asd, I only post what I think needs to be said at the time. I indicated my general read but didn't think I needed to go into all of the specifics behind it.
And my general point is that slowplaying (whether you call it inducing or otherwise) is totally read-dependent, and that the Villain's range is only a part of the read-based analysis that one has to do.
In other words, what we want to do is identify situations where (1) we can afford to give someone a free card and (2) it will be profitable to do so.
The funny thing is, if you actually watched me play, you would see that it is VERY rare that I ever slowplay. I am not reacting the way I am to this thread because I think that "gee, what poker players really need to do is slowplay more". Quite the contrary. As general advice, "don't slowplay" is very good advice.
But what I do think people ought to do is THINK about WHY one might actually want to slowplay a hand. I am putting a post together in the Beginners Circle about what poker players can learn from chess-- part of what I am trying to do is lay out the sort of read-based game theory that I try to apply every day in my game. And while I rarely slowplay, I do use the CONCEPTS that are inherent in my slowplay theory-- (1) how can I use my opponent's behavior on this and previous hands to narrow the range of possible hands that he is playing, (2) what is he likely to do in response to each of my available actions, and (3) how will what I do, what he does, and what card comes on the next street affect how he and I will behave later in the hand-- several times in every session of poker I play.
Indeed, we all use these concepts, even though we don't think about them. When we make an isolation raise, we are doing two things-- (a) understanding that our hand will likely play well against our opponent's hand heads up or in a 3-way pot, and (b) making a prediction that our isolation raise will cause the other players to fold and give us that advantageous situation. When we check-raise, we are doing two things-- (a) making an estimation of our hand's relative strength against our opponents, and (b) making a prediction of how our opponents will react to a check-raise, on this street and later streets, and how this will benefit us. When we value-bet, we are (a) making an estimation that we are ahead in the hand, and (b) making a prediction that the amount we bet is an amount that our opponent is likely to call to pay us off. When we raise the flop to get a free card on the turn, we are (a) making an estimation of our relative hand strength, and (b) making a prediction of the effect of our behavior on our opponent's actions on later streets. See the pattern here?
The point is, there's a crucial insight here that isn't captured in all the mathematical modeling of poker. Poker combines mathematical analysis of the expectation of particular wagers with the game-theory element of chess, the idea that what each of us does must be based not only on the strength of our hand but based on the reactions we are likely to induce from our opponents and the ways in which those reactions will benefit us.
I'd be totally uncritical of any poker player who decides not to slowplay at all, as long as they understand the theoretical construct of why slowplay can sometimes, in carefully limited circumstances, work.
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