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| ArcticKnight |
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For quite a long time I have been considering both sides of the argument as to whether the supply of fish will dry up. I wrote the following, in part, because I think Jeff has chosen the right time to enter the world on playing for a living. I believe that the period of profitability will subside, and that if Jeff does have the skills to do it (which by his posts and feedback it seems that he does), now is the time to do it. First, although I use the term “fish” myself, I’m not a great fan of the term, as it is rather non-descript. I think it’s safe to say that when we think of the desirable types of players we want to play against, it includes players with gaps in their games. More specifically, it includes players with the kind of gaps that are most profitable to us: These gaps include, but are not limited to, the following: Players who play too many hands Players who chase bad odds Players who play weak-post flop Players who don’t understand the importance of position Players who are subject to poor play or tilt out of frustration Players who are predictable and have extreme tendencies (overly passive, overly aggressive, always bluff, never bluff, always slowplay, never slowplay, etc) Players who play limits that are beyond their ability Players who attribute their losses to bad beats as opposed to bad play Players who are not knowledgeable enough to find their gaps Players who don’t study the game I am sure I have missed lots, but what many refer to as “fish would have lots of the above gaps. My feeling is that many of the “fish” disappear because (1) they can’t afford to continue losing, or (2) they become better players. I suspect the former is more a common cause of disappearing fish, but I have no data to back that assumption. In either case, though, they no longer provide a source of income for better players, and in some cases they are a threat to your own bankroll. The reason I feel fairly confident about the supply of fish drying up is because in my field of work we have an analogous situation. I work at a College, and part of our goal is to develop new programs and attract new students. Let me use an example of the analogy here. Let’s suppose we have a market audience of approximately 250,000 persons, and we have just developed a new program in “Avionics Technology.” When we first market the program we know a few things: 1. Our target audience will include recent grade 12 graduates 2. Our target audience will also include mature adults between 22 and 45 who are looking for a career change. The may be un-employed, under-employed, or bored with their current job, but they will represent a portion of our applicants Now that we have the scenario set, we begin to market the program. What we find over a 5 to 10 year cycle is pretty typical for a new program. During the first year we attract recent high school graduates, but we also attract numerous students from the “mature” applicant pool (category #2 above). If there are 24 seats in the program, we may draw 100 applications from recent high school graduates, and 200 from mature students (300 in total) However, in each successive year the pool of “mature” students applying gets smaller and the pool of recent high school graduates remains stable. We still may end up with the 24 students in the program each year, but the number of mature applicants declines each year. The reason for this comes down to exposure and replenishment. The pool of recent high school students is replenished each year. In any given year there are many keen, young adults looking at post-secondary education options. This is not the case in the mature student market. If we look at Joe Brown, the 31 year-old laundry worker, for example. Joe has seen the Avionics program advertised for a few years now. If he were interested, he probably would have applied in the first couple of years. So, the great pool of Joe Browns’ make their decision about a new program early in the life of the program. Mr. Brown is unlikely to have a sudden wave of attraction to the program during its 6th or 7th year of marketing – if he were interested he would have seen and grasped the opportunity by now. So what does this have to do with the pool of potential fish in online hold-em? I would argue that the pool is derived by similar circumstances. If we replace high school graduates for college programs with people coming of legal age (touchy point) for gambling, then we have a similar age cohort of new “potential” candidates. Thus, this influx into online poker each year should be fairly constant, and it may even grow slightly in the short-term out of increased interest in the game. However, let’s look at the Joe Brown’s of the world. Only let’s broaden this category to be anyone in the age range of 18 to 80. Joe Brown and people in this age cohort have known about the world on online gambling for some time now. The exposure on TV and the Internet has never been greater. Chances are that if Joe Brown has not entered the online gaming world by now, he never will. Let’s face it, we all know adults who have ventured into to online gaming, and we know those who have not. I believe the vast majority who have not tried it by now, never will. How many family and friends do you know who NEVER will? Do you see your Aunt Zelda or Uncle Jim changing their minds soon? I don’t think so. The fact is, something can only be “new” once. The vast majority of adults of age have made their decision of whether to enroll in the online poker ranks. If the Joe Browns’ and Aunt Zeldas and Uncle Jims have not bought in yet, why would they two years from now? With that said, where do the new players come from. I believe the field on online poker will be replenished primarily by people coming of age, with a smaller amount each year of people who have decided later in life to give it a try. Now, let’s combine the declining fish entering the game with the growing number of good players who have seen a profitable venue for their skills. As usual, the good players will still be multi-tabling 4 to 8 games, using PokerTracker and other aids in attempt to make a living off the less skilled and less informed. But, there will be more good players trying to compete against a shrinking field of less “new” players. Furthermore, the new players will go broke quicker and depart sooner, as there will be less poorer or recreational players around to help keep them in play. A fish can swim with other fish and a few sharks for a while and get a way with it. Not so in the future when that sharks will vastly outnumber the fish. I don’t see any problems in the short-term, but over the next few years I anticipate that that good players will have trouble avoiding each other, and that there will be stiff competition to try and get at those tables with weaker players. Players talk about “the right table conditions” lots. We already know that at certain times of day the fish are limited. How long before the evening and weekend games are infested by sharks trying to catch the fewer fish? How long before people find themselves saying I didn’t play at all tonight because I could not find any good tables? We also know that some sites are not as good for fish as they used to be. How long before less and less sites are profitable places to play. “Table conditions” are a bit like the stock market. Even average investors can make good money in good market conditions, but only the best can make good money in marginal or poor conditions So, how long before the conditions get poor? In my opinion, that time will occur in the next 2 to 4 years when all the persons of age have either tried the game, or have resigned to the fact that the never will. Anyway, it’s all food for thought if you are considering poker as a long-term career. This is just my opinion, and I hope it generates some discussion. And to Jeff….. best of luck again. As the farmers say, “make hay while the sun is shining.” Knock-em out. $10 an hour jobs will always be there, and so will universities and college. Profitable hold-em may not be, though (IMO). |
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Gone golfing ..see ya in the Fall of 2006
PS. What did the snail on the turtle's back say? Wheeeeeeeee........ 
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| Gatlin Dan |
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Man, and I thought I was a pessimist. I think it is still kind of early to really tell. I think this year's WSOP will attract even more people to online poker. Especially if another 'chris moneymaker' player wins it. I don't think it's done growing yet, but is too soon to tell what will happen in the next 2-4 years. The internet itself is still young. 2-4 years of internet life is a significant chunk of life. There just seems to be way too many unknowns at this point in time to know if online poker will continue to be profitable or not. One thing I do know, is that fish breed other fish. I overhear people at work talking about playing online poker. I have no reason to think that these people aren't anything more than the average/normal online player. I sit there a quietly eavesdrop on the expressed interest that people who have still not tried it seem to have. For a lot of people, poker is about chasing a dream, for them it's no different than dreaming of winning the lottery. People (especially Americans) are dreamers. I think this bodes well for online poker, at least for a while. |
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| Fnord |
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Peter's Principal might also apply. Player will develop a style that works at .5/1, 1/2, 2/4 whatever, then try to play bigger and get smoked or reduced to feeding the rake. People have said stuff like this in the past (for offline too) and it's never panned out. Winning poker is tough and there is a huge line of people willing to try. Sure the games will get thougher, but the best players will keep cashing for a a long time to come. The biggest threats to this-thing-of-ours are bots and the law. |
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| TylerK |
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| I think the assumption that the world will ever run out of people willing to be losing gamblers is pretty well already proven wrong. Replace "online poker" with "Las Vegas" in your post above and see if you still agree. | ||
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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| Fnord |
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| Nehmer |
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| elipsesjeff |
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I agree with fnord here also but I apreciate your post and words Artic. I have always had the thought in the back of my mind about eventually the entire poker thing will blow up. But we forget that the world is a big big place. With Billions of people in china, japan, and india many of which we have no clue when/if they'll catch on to the poker craze. However, that being said, I've sat at multiple home games with co-workers/neighbors and found that NONE of them actually study the game. Only a few (roughly 10%) actually have played online (Pacific only, which means that they've never multitabled or anything else for that matter). I'd say another 50% have never even heard of online poker at all. |
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 Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.
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| ArcticKnight |
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I realize that much of what I posted is open to debate, but I see my view on things as being neither pessimistic nor optomistic. In fact, I am rather optimistic about the fact that on-line poker will be around for a very long time. My position was more about a what the nature of the competetion might look like once the first massive school of fish have swum through. I would be intertested to hear what market analysts or other specialists in such areas are projecting based on exposure, population, access, popularity, etc. There must be some studies out there that project when peak particpation will/should occur, based on similar phenomenon. |
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Gone golfing ..see ya in the Fall of 2006
PS. What did the snail on the turtle's back say? Wheeeeeeeee........
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| ArcticKnight |
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My premise is about exposure and the reaction/decision time of an existing age cohort, and it is about when the ratio of good to bad players might swing into unfavourable playing conditions. |
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Gone golfing ..see ya in the Fall of 2006
PS. What did the snail on the turtle's back say? Wheeeeeeeee........
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| |~|ypermegachi |
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here's how i think of it. don't quote my numbers cuz i'm just guessin...but i think you'll get the point. basically, what % of people have a post-secondary education? something like 50%. what % of post-secondary go to university? something like 30% (the rest go to those mini-colleges). what % of post-secondary students make it into honours? something like 20%. what % of those honours students are smart enough and the drive enough to do a masters degree? something like 10%. what % of those masters students will get a PhD after? i'd say probably 50% here just because it's probably hard to find another job.... anywho...i'm just gonna say that a PhD is equivalent to a pro poker player who destroyes the best and highest games. masters is a solid winning player. and honours post-secondary is a break-even to modest winner. 100% * 50% = 50% post-secondary 50% * 30% = 15% university 15% * 20% = 3% honours 3% * $10 = 0.3% masters 0.3% * 50% = 0.15% PhD (i guess the analogy i used is slightly off because it's estimated roughly 1-2% are solid pro players and the rest of the 8-9% are BE to modest) there are just too many people too ignorant to bother learning everything and improving themselves that mediocrity triumphes all the time in every discipline. the "fish pool" will never dry out because it's human nature to be lazy and ignorant. |
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| Legendash |
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To be somewhat more pesssimistic than arctic, the saving grace in your argument is that people who are under age are not playing and are waiting to play. However i'm sure we all know of a few people who play underage and i don't think there can be that many people who are worried enough about it to actually wait til they're 16/18/21 to start playing. The only difficulty i've heard of is people not having the right bank accounts to get on neteller but i'm sure that problem can be solved. I think the main source of growth at the moment is word of mouth and advertising. Once they've attracted all that they can i think we'll see a stronger differential between levels. 1c/2c NL will always be a fish fest because it's not profitable enough for sharks to bother with it. |
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"[This theory] is only useful for helping to calculate your luck odds. If you have a good read that you have a numerical advantage against your opponent, that your hand is "luckier"..."
Copyright, Youngdro 2007.
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| Element187 |
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if your making a profit now to live off of playing poker, if your a good player and willing to learn you will continue to profit more. sure the fish tables are profitable, but if your not moving up every now and then, how are you going to get better at the game and win more money ? it should be jeff's goal to continue learning the game, and perhaps he's already good enough to swim at the shark tables and destroy it. i'm never going to stay at the same level . as my skills get stronger, i'm going to keep trying to upgrade to the next level and beat it. for your theory to be correct, you have to assume the player will never get better .. the fish now will get better, but since you have been playing alot longer, you should still be better then these upgraded fish and still be able to out play them. about the bots coming to town, hopefully the online poker sites will be able to spot them out and continously ban them. |
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"Imagine how it would be to be at the top Making cash money, Go and tour all around the world, Tell stories about all the young girls." - The Prodigy - Girls
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| ChezJ |
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i think there is an unbelievably huge number of teenagers chomping at the bit to play online poker for real money, so even if the first wave of "joe browns" subsides, the second wave will provide quite a plentiful harvest of fish, albeit smarter fish. with regard to the joe browns, though, i think we are still far from seeing the crest of that tide. i play in many home games around town and have only met a few folks who play online. many are actually surprised to hear that you can play online. neteller signs up over 2,000 new accounts PER DAY. i think online poker is where the internet was circa 1994. gaining a ton of buzz, but not nearly as ubiquitous in mainstream society as it's going to get in a few years. back then, not everybody had an email account, even for work. nowadays, it's shocking when someone doesn't have broadband in their home. ChezJ |
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| jmontis |
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| Soupie said the poker economy is fueled by egomaniacs, and he's dead on. With all the Vegas and WSOP you see on TV, poker isn't going anywhere for years to come. It wouldn't surprise me if the WSOP builds an entire venue in Las Vegas just for their events. | ||
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| dsaxton |
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| If you think that there is a considerable amount of skill required to be a good poker player, then I wouldn't be too worried about running out of bad opponents. Most people who play poker do so on a merely casual basis, and aren't interested in investing the time and effort necessary to become proficient at the game. | ||
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| Bmxicle |
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| The one reason i don't really like your arguement about the supply of mature fish drying up is that alot of these potential older bad players are computer illiterate. I'm sure many of them love to gamble but don't play online because they didn't grow up using computers. | ||
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| ArcticKnight |
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Anyway, it's all good, as the intent was to pose a position and generate some discussion. Lots of folks have posted good reasons why they think the cuurent adult cohort has yet to peak. I hope they are right, but only time will tell. |
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Gone golfing ..see ya in the Fall of 2006
PS. What did the snail on the turtle's back say? Wheeeeeeeee........
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| KoRnholio |
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
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| According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ... | |
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