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why i am not the biggest advocate of free card plays

  
 
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LawDude
Old 10-23-2009, 08:26 PM     Post subject: why i am not the biggest advocate of free card plays #1 (permalink)  
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PokerStars Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7, A
3 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 3 folds, MP2 calls

Flop: (5.4 SB) Q, 7, 6 (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP2 calls

Turn: (4.7 BB) K (2 players)
MP2 bets
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elipsesjeff
Old 10-23-2009, 09:37 PM #2 (permalink)  
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your raise is as much for value as it is for a free card.


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Chopper
Old 10-23-2009, 10:05 PM #3 (permalink)  
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why arent you a fan? because he bet into you again?

so, he hit is K, maybe his KQ. so what, you still have 14 outs against him. you had 50+% equity, plus a tad of FE, on the flop to take him by the river as long as he didnt hit a set. and, a set either 3bets you on the flop or c/r's you on the turn....so that isnt in there anymore, imo. i may even raise again so he doesnt donk the river and i get a free sd, but can still put in a bet on the river when i improve.
LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

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LawDude
Old 10-23-2009, 10:11 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
your raise is as much for value as it is for a free card.
So you'd raise the turn too, then?

More seriously, I know I have a lot of equity against his range and you can justify the raise on that ground even if you don't get the free card, but I also run into so many turn-donkers that the free card play qua free card play isn't of great value at the stakes I play in online. (Live, it's a totally different matter.)

The point is that poker books all say "raise for the free card! raise for the free card!". But I don't get the free card all that often.

Also, there's one other interesting thing about your comment that is underexplored. Pot equity is your share of the pot if you see your hand to showdown. In other words, it includes not only your turn outs but your river outs. But if the villain is going to charge you if you miss the turn, the math is a little different (and less favorable) than the situation where you are ahead in the hand and you can charge the villain if he doesn't catch up on the turn. (This is actually even more of a concern in no limit, and it is why you have to, for instance, calculate your pot odds on your flush draw without reference to your likelihood of rivering rather than turning your flush, as you are likely to be charged more to see the river.)

Because you may be charged to see the river if you are behind and miss the turn, being ahead in the hand with 49 percent equity may be > than being behind in the hand with 51 percent equity.
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Chopper
Old 10-24-2009, 12:14 AM #5 (permalink)  
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i know what you are trying to say, but i also think you are taking the passive approach to big draws again.

i rarely fail to get a free card. so, at such low/passive stakes, i think this is a great play to use as a default. i think, however, it completely gives your hand away when you check behind, which is why i dont always do it.

you dont "raise for the free card" here....alone. you are raising for the OPTION to take a free card IF YOU WISH TO. you are raising to keep the initiative in a hand where you want to choose between bloating a pot and keeping it controlled. big difference to a naked free card play, imo.
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LawDude
Old 10-24-2009, 12:29 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chopper
i know what you are trying to say, but i also think you are taking the passive approach to big draws again.

i rarely fail to get a free card. so, at such low/passive stakes, i think this is a great play to use as a default. i think, however, it completely gives your hand away when you check behind, which is why i dont always do it.

you dont "raise for the free card" here....alone. you are raising for the OPTION to take a free card IF YOU WISH TO. you are raising to keep the initiative in a hand where you want to choose between bloating a pot and keeping it controlled. big difference to a naked free card play, imo.
I suspect the phrase "passive approach to big draws" is doing more work in your mind than the mathematical principles involved.

The point is, if you can get the free card (or, OK, the option to take one), the play is great. Not only do you keep the initiative, but you lose less from the 2SB's than you would with the 1SB and 1BB, you bloat the pot if you hit, you pick up a smidgen of fold equity, and you don't have to pay to see the river if you miss.

But if you don't get the free card, and you don't have a lot of fold equity, the argument that it is such a great play anyway because of your equity advantage against his range is not such a great one. Because your theoretical pot equity as of the flop can only be actualized if (a) you are ahead in the hand and can charge the villain to draw out on you, or (b) you are behind in the hand but will not have to pay any additional sums to capture your full equity by seeing the hand through to the river.

If neither (a) nor (b) is true, than what is really happening is you are paying the flop bet in exchange for half your equity and the turn bet in exchange for the other half. Villain, ahead, only pays as long as he stays ahead (unless you hit trips 7's, which is more concealed) and can get out if you hit your draw.

I can probably game out the math here-- the question is how much liquid equity, i.e., equity in the pot that you can immediately claim with a bet-- exists in a given situation. And if you don't have enough of it, it's probably a better play to just call. Remember, the call is never incorrect as long as you have the pot odds and there isn't a potential raiser acting after you. The issue is whether you get greater +EV with the raise.
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Chopper
Old 10-24-2009, 02:20 AM #7 (permalink)  
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you and i seem to butt heads on this issue a lot. the "passive" comment was because you have posted two hands now where you were reluctant to jam the pot for one reason or another....so i suspect it's a trend, not an aberration.

and, we are making the play because it is +EV, for the reasons you mentioned, to attempt over the long-term at this level. the majority of the players are passive, so your chances are very good that you will be checked to on the next street way more than 50% of the time. if you get donked, ok, now you make a note and save that kernel for the next time.....no big deal. it shouldnt make us change our game plan from here on out to "call with draws and take the odds." in a game texture where villains overplay bad hands and go too far with marginal hands AND overpay to draw to 2nd best draws, it's a mint to jam flops with big draws, take the initiative, and play out with what the turn brings us.

i am not a half-empty kind of guy, and, in respect to a "non-made" hand, i feel you are half-empty (not a slam on your play, you are as profitable as i am, probably more, in these games). and, i know you are not a passive player....see back to the cbet/2barrel conversation we have had where i gave you the stats i have on you. but, i think you may be with position and draws.

HU, i am jamming here to quell his donk. multi-way, i am jamming here to build a pot for when i hit the A or flush. if i get 3bet, i slow up. but, i am not going to be because these players dont 3bet w/o the nuts. they chill out WAY before you and i do.....to their detriment. so, let them. take the initiative and the free showdown. its just as cheap as calling them off, and you get the opportunity to get another in when you outdraw him.

you think more specifically than i do. i tend to think more on a "game texture" level and adjust as i see specific play. i think you think about all the specific math involved and adjust in the opposite way i do as you compile your reads.

obviously, there are more than several ways to skin the cat. and, that is why i enjoy these little discussions with you and asd....they make us think about other ways to play the same spot.
LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
 
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LawDude
Old 10-24-2009, 10:15 PM #8 (permalink)  
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It's true that I sometimes call in situations that would outrage aggressive limit players. And some of those calls may be -EV versus the raise. But I sometimes do raise for the free card or because I have the equity advantage (indeed, I've posted several hands when I do it). I just don't buy the semi-received wisdom that it's always better to raise draws. If you get the optional free card or you pick up fold equity, it's definitely better. But if you get donked into or 3-bet, it may not be, even if you have lots of equity in the pot. And it's important to remember that it isn't "wrong" to passively call a draw with proper pot odds. It may be too passive in a particular situation, but you are getting odds to call.
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Chopper
Old 10-24-2009, 10:38 PM #9 (permalink)  
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dont think i "always" raise my draws. however, in position and with multiple people or an aggressive player HU, you bet your ass i raise my draws.

oop, i look for the c/r.....lol.
LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
 
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asdpikas
Old 10-26-2009, 04:59 PM #10 (permalink)  
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raise flop, raise turn 100%

raise flop for value! free card is a side effect that u sometimes get and sometimes dont, not an objective in itself.

raise turn for FSD-semibluff purposes! You still have a pair, and should probably call down anyways, so put him to the test, spend the same 2BBs to get to SD, while having the option to bet your flush/2pair/trips the times you improve. You also will save yourself the tough spot where you dont hit the river and face a bet (do i call? do i muck?).
If he happens to 3bet you, it's not such a disaster since you still have big equity with your draw, and can play fit or fold on the river knowing your 7 is no good.

A call on the turn would be better with something like QTo, since the 3bet would hurt you too much, you have a few outs, but not too many, and if he's getting outta line you snap bluffs, while losing less when he has you beat.
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LawDude
Old 10-26-2009, 08:21 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asdpikas
raise flop for value! free card is a side effect that u sometimes get and sometimes dont, not an objective in itself.
Yours is certainly the orthodox position, and it has a lot going for it, but note-- I did answer the issue of value before. If the villain is going to call your raise and check the turn, you can raise for value. If the villain is going to fold to your raise, you can raise for value. But if the villain is going to 3-bet your raise or donk the turn, you are NOT capturing all of your equity with that flop raise. You are capturing 1/2 of it in the case of a donk or 1/4 of it in the case of a 3-bet, because you are going to have to put additional bets in the pot.

That's why it's better to be ahead with 49 percent equity than behind with 51 percent. The player who is ahead can push when he is ahead and bail when he falls behind. The player who is behind has no choice but to pay whatever the other player makes him pay (plus any raises he chooses to put in). So having an equity advantage doesn't always translate into a particular play being +EV.
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asdpikas
Old 10-27-2009, 02:38 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdpikas
raise flop for value! free card is a side effect that u sometimes get and sometimes dont, not an objective in itself.
Yours is certainly the orthodox position, and it has a lot going for it, but note-- I did answer the issue of value before. If the villain is going to call your raise and check the turn, you can raise for value. If the villain is going to fold to your raise, you can raise for value. But if the villain is going to 3-bet your raise or donk the turn, you are NOT capturing all of your equity with that flop raise. You are capturing 1/2 of it in the case of a donk or 1/4 of it in the case of a 3-bet, because you are going to have to put additional bets in the pot.

That's why it's better to be ahead with 49 percent equity than behind with 51 percent. The player who is ahead can push when he is ahead and bail when he falls behind. The player who is behind has no choice but to pay whatever the other player makes him pay (plus any raises he chooses to put in). So having an equity advantage doesn't always translate into a particular play being +EV.
I'm not sure i follow... If i have an equity edge on a given street, the more bets go in, the more I gain. This is independent of future action on later streets.

I'm just saying, I raise flop for value, if he 3bets, I cap. Because I think I am a favorite against his range up to this point.

I was just saying the free card is not an objective in itself, and on this hand, if he checked to me after my flop raise, I'd bet the turn and not take a free card. If he is the one to donk the turn, I will raise.
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LawDude
Old 10-27-2009, 06:22 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asdpikas
I'm not sure i follow... If i have an equity edge on a given street, the more bets go in, the more I gain. This is independent of future action on later streets.

I'm just saying, I raise flop for value, if he 3bets, I cap. Because I think I am a favorite against his range up to this point.

I was just saying the free card is not an objective in itself, and on this hand, if he checked to me after my flop raise, I'd bet the turn and not take a free card. If he is the one to donk the turn, I will raise.
Let's take a simple example. You have Qc Jc. Villain has pocket aces. The flop gives you an open ended straight-flush draw:

pokenum -h qc jc - ah ad -- tc 9c 4h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Tc 9c 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc Jc 557 56.26 433 43.74 0 0.00 0.563
Ad Ah 433 43.74 557 56.26 0 0.00 0.437

You have 56 percent equity in that pot. But villain is ahead right now.

Now, let's take 3 scenarios:
a. You hit your draw on the turn.
b. You hit your draw on the river.
c. You miss your draw.

And let's assume the villain puts you on a draw and will fold his aces if you hit your draw.

Now watch how this plays out.

SCENARIO a:
After whatever betting happens on the flop, you hit your draw and bet the turn. Villain folds. Post-flop, villain has put in 0BB.
SCENARIO b:
After whatever betting happens on the flop, there's a bet and a call on the turn. Villain folds the river. Post flop, villain has put in 1BB.
SCENARIO c:
Hero has to put in a bet on the turn. Post-flop, hero has put in 1BB.

Now, here are the possibilities in percentage form:

28 percent of the time, the post-flop action results in a push.
28 percent of the time, villain has to pay 1BB.
43 percent of the time, hero has to pay 1BB.

So, the expectation is .28x0 + .28x1 - .43x1 = minus .15BB for hero. Even though he has an equity advantage.

Now note, this is based on two things:
1. That hero will not get a free turn card.
and
2. That villain will be able to fold his beaten hand.

In practice, those things aren't always true. Which is why this can be a good play.

But don't assume "I have more equity, therefore I should bet". If you are on a draw, against an opponent who has a good read and is willing to bail out of his hand, and you can't get a free card, the reality is in limit you can have more equity and yet be making a -EV play to bet. And that's because in limit the bets go in one street at a time and you have to take into account what action you expect on the later streets.
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KoRnholio
Old 10-27-2009, 06:40 PM #14 (permalink)  
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LD, I think you are missing some key points.

1. By raising on the come just as we would with a made hand (eg JT, 99, KK on that T9x board), he won't be able to put us on a draw as easily.

1a. Even if he puts us on _a_ draw, he won't know if it's 87, QJ or clubs. Saying that he can just put us on a draw when we raise that board and then check-fold any club, 6, 8, J or K is just... not gonna happen.

2. The larger pot size made by our raise(s) will make him more likely to show down his hand even if we hit our draw, due to the pot odds he is getting.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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Chopper
Old 10-27-2009, 06:46 PM #15 (permalink)  
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i can see the point you are making, but cant get past one thing...

we are playing lower stakes games. even your 8/16 commerce games are passive, by your account. therefore, we a) cant pin villain on AA and b) know we are getting paid off by worse the majority of the time even when our draw hits.

those two factors dramatically change your scenario. i think the "default" play is to put money in the pot when you have an equity edge. sometimes its best to do so on the flop, and sometimes its best to do so on the turn. however, it is best to get as much in the middle as possible when you have the edge....period.

the only thing that will change things will be when you play the same guys over and over and over again and need to change up your short-term EV for longer term EV. and, that doesnt happen at low stakes pokerstars games. it may at commerce, but probably not at even the 8/16 level from what you've told me.

you just arent going to go too wrong by being overly aggressive. slightly too aggressive also earns you other edges by keeping the players on their heels and passive.....which we have discussed to death.
LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

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asdpikas
Old 10-27-2009, 07:00 PM #16 (permalink)  
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I know what you mean, but it doesnt apply...

how can you assume villain will fold if i hit? especially in LHE.

I am aware of the reasoning, but had only seen it applied to NL (See Mathematics of Poker by Chen and Ankenman). In NL, the draw can be punished heavily by a big bet on the turn if it has missed. A limit BB, after PF action and flop action, will never punish you hard enough. It may be an inconvenience, but really, not a disaster at all.

If he will fold he will be making a big mistake given the size of the pot and the pot-odds. He will be terribly exploitable. We can safely assume he will NOT fold.

Anyways, you cannot counter the truism that:

If i have 56% equity on the flop, I will get 0.56 BB back for every BB that goes in the pot, while villain will get 0.44 BB. This is +EV.


And, BTW... your math is wrong, even with those assumptions:

28 percent of the time, the post-flop action results in a push.
28 percent of the time, villain has to pay 1BB.
43 percent of the time, hero has to pay 1BB.

So, the expectation is .28xpot + .28x(pot+1) - .43x(pot+1) = X
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asdpikas
Old 10-27-2009, 07:11 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asdpikas
So, the expectation is .28xpot + .28x(pot+1) - .43x(pot+1) = X
couldnt help it, had to quote myself

by that mathematical expression, you can see that the more action on the flop the more you stand to gain...

example

on a single raise PF, the pot on the flop is 5.5 small bets

on the turn, and for the equation, if you dont raise his donk, the pot is 7.5 sb

expectation= .28x5.5 + .28x7.5 - .43x7.5 = +0.415

if you raise the turn and he calls, the pot will be 7.5 sb

expectation= .28x7.5 + .28x9.5 - .43x9.5 = +0.675

Edit: fmp, had initial pot size wrong, but it doesnt change the bottomline... there u go
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LawDude
Old 10-27-2009, 08:56 PM #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asdpikas
So, the expectation is .28xpot + .28x(pot+1) - .43x(pot+1) = X
Not really. When calling, the proper calculation is pot odds, i.e., pot size / bet size, and perhaps implied odds, i.e., pot size plus additional profit expected if you hit / bet size.

But when betting for value, the proper calculation is expected additional return on showdown / expected cost of showdown. In other words, the money that is already in the pot is money you will collect if the hand is simply checked down and you show down the best hand. When you are value betting, you are trying to get additional returns on your additional investment. And you have to include, in that analysis, any additional bets that your opponents will charge you with raises or bets on later streets.
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asdpikas
Old 10-28-2009, 05:50 AM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
the money that is already in the pot is money you will collect if the hand is simply checked down and you show down the best hand.
you dont collect it if you bet and he folds? wow

Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
When you are value betting, you are trying to get additional returns on your additional investment. And you have to include, in that analysis, any additional bets that your opponents will charge you with raises or bets on later streets.
right, and that is why i used your own equation, including such assumptions, only that i do believe if i win (be it by showdown or not) I win the original pot plus whatever betting came afterwards.
This is a very widespread belief.

mathematics of poker, page 19

when a probability distribution has numerical values associated with each of the possible outcomes, we can find the EV of that distribution, which is the value of each outcome multiplied by its probability, all summed together.


Well, you gave an example, with 3 possible outcomes, their probabilities and results, and i just added that when you win you win the whole pot. This is how EV calculation is done since winning the whole pot is a part of winning the hand, be it by showdown or not.

I even made a mistake, since it should read:

So, the expectation is .28xpot + .28x(pot+1) - .43x1 = X

since, when you pay on the turn, you dont stand to lose an additional pot, the times you miss.

But this is not really the point, is it? do you not see how your return grows the more action you give on the flop?
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LawDude
Old 10-28-2009, 06:07 AM #20 (permalink)  
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fold equity is a different issue, ands a legitimate one. but we were talking aboout value betting. and you are counting the whole pot as part of the payoff of the value bet. but that is not right. you win the dead money in the pot by showing down the best hand, with or without a value bet. the question is whether the post value bet action gives you+ev on the value bet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by asdpikas
Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
the money that is already in the pot is money you will collect if the hand is simply checked down and you show down the best hand.
you dont collect it if you bet and he folds? wow

Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
When you are value betting, you are trying to get additional returns on your additional investment. And you have to include, in that analysis, any additional bets that your opponents will charge you with raises or bets on later streets.
right, and that is why i used your own equation, including such assumptions, only that i do believe if i win (be it by showdown or not) I win the original pot plus whatever betting came afterwards.
This is a very widespread belief.

mathematics of poker, page 19

when a probability distribution has numerical values associated with each of the possible outcomes, we can find the EV of that distribution, which is the value of each outcome multiplied by its probability, all summed together.


Well, you gave an example, with 3 possible outcomes, their probabilities and results, and i just added that when you win you win the whole pot. This is how EV calculation is done since winning the whole pot is a part of winning the hand, be it by showdown or not.

I even made a mistake, since it should read:

So, the expectation is .28xpot + .28x(pot+1) - .43x1 = X

since, when you pay on the turn, you dont stand to lose an additional pot, the times you miss.

But this is not really the point, is it? do you not see how your return grows the more action you give on the flop?
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asdpikas
Old 10-28-2009, 10:44 AM #21 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
fold equity is a different issue, ands a legitimate one. but we were talking aboout value betting. and you are counting the whole pot as part of the payoff of the value bet. but that is not right. you win the dead money in the pot by showing down the best hand, with or without a value bet. the question is whether the post value bet action gives you+ev on the value bet.
I'm sorry but you cant calculate EV without taking into account what is in the pot. That is just a no no.

Or else, you wouldnt draw to the nut str8 oesd on the turn, cause hey! thats -ev

.20x1<.80x1

it is -ev on a very smal pot, and +ev on a larger pot. Pot odds is just a name for a calculation of the break even point as far as pot size overlay.

.20x(smallpot+1)<.80x1
.20x(bigpot+1)>.80x1

The same goes with value betting. Sklansky already discusses this when he analises blinds/antes.
Without blinds/antes (without taking into account money already in the pot) you should only play and bet the nuts. PF this would be AA.

value betting is complex, but part of it is laying odds to your opponent. To lay odds (different than 1-1), there needs to be money in the pot.

For example, the bigger the pot size, the thinner you may valuebet, in general.

most villains will fold Ahi in a hu very small pot, but will make the crying call on a 20BB hu pot (and mostly correctly so). Thus the value of a value bet is also dependent on potsize and the odds you are laying, since this in turn affects villain's calling range.

still, going back to basics/Sklansy:

everytime you bet getting the best of it, you profit

you have the best of it on the flop, you bet, you profit.


Regarding future action, i already mentioned how your reasoning would only apply to big bet poker. This is already explained extensively in The Mathematics of Poker.

On the turn, if villain bets, his bet is too small to even come close to your call being -EV. If he could make a potsized bet, then the situation could arise where turn action would dictate a call on the flop instead of a raise.

as for your example hand

huge draw vs aces, but in NL

raising the flop with the draw should only be done if it will commit both players to an all-in or close to it, or trigger the 3bet that leads to an all-in.

if you raise too little and opponent flat calls with AA, you may then face a potsized bet on the turn when you have missed. At that point you are screwed.

So there, you would either raise big enough for AA villain to make a decision for all his chips, or not raise at all.

The key point, is the POT SIZED bet.

In LHE, villain may bet out, but you dont really care too much, do you? you have a +EV call at that point given the size of the pot, and there is nothing he can really do to punish you.
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LawDude
Old 10-28-2009, 06:22 PM #22 (permalink)  
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Much of what you say is right, but your conclusion is wrong. Let's say you have a simple pair vs. pair hand. Board is QJ4. You have a queen. Villain has a jack. You are heads up. There's, say, 4BB in the pot.

You are ahead, obviously. So if you both check down to the river, you win the 4BB unless he sucks out.

If you place a bet on the turn, it costs you 1BB. He calls, and that makes the pot 6BB.

What's your expected value on that value bet? It's not 5 to 1 (6BB for your 1BB). Because the 4BB is dead money. You win that anyway. Rather, you are getting even money on your value bet.

Note how this is different from a call. If villain bets, and you have to decide to call, you are getting zero if you fold. So, the EV of your call is 5 to 1.

So when calculating the expected value of your value bet with an unmade hand, the calculation is based ONLY on the additional amounts that are going to go into the pot, not what is already there. And once that it is clear, it can CERTAINLY be the case that the additional amounts that the villain is going to make you pay on later streets to draw out are relevant to the EV of the bet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by asdpikas
Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
fold equity is a different issue, ands a legitimate one. but we were talking aboout value betting. and you are counting the whole pot as part of the payoff of the value bet. but that is not right. you win the dead money in the pot by showing down the best hand, with or without a value bet. the question is whether the post value bet action gives you+ev on the value bet.
I'm sorry but you cant calculate EV without taking into account what is in the pot. That is just a no no.

Or else, you wouldnt draw to the nut str8 oesd on the turn, cause hey! thats -ev

.20x1<.80x1

it is -ev on a very smal pot, and +ev on a larger pot. Pot odds is just a name for a calculation of the break even point as far as pot size overlay.

.20x(smallpot+1)<.80x1
.20x(bigpot+1)>.80x1

The same goes with value betting. Sklansky already discusses this when he analises blinds/antes.
Without blinds/antes (without taking into account money already in the pot) you should only play and bet the nuts. PF this would be AA.

value betting is complex, but part of it is laying odds to your opponent. To lay odds (different than 1-1), there needs to be money in the pot.

For example, the bigger the pot size, the thinner you may valuebet, in general.

most villains will fold Ahi in a hu very small pot, but will make the crying call on a 20BB hu pot (and mostly correctly so). Thus the value of a value bet is also dependent on potsize and the odds you are laying, since this in turn affects villain's calling range.

still, going back to basics/Sklansy:

everytime you bet getting the best of it, you profit

you have the best of it on the flop, you bet, you profit.


Regarding future action, i already mentioned how your reasoning would only apply to big bet poker. This is already explained extensively in The Mathematics of Poker.

On the turn, if villain bets, his bet is too small to even come close to your call being -EV. If he could make a potsized bet, then the situation could arise where turn action would dictate a call on the flop instead of a raise.

as for your example hand

huge draw vs aces, but in NL

raising the flop with the draw should only be done if it will commit both players to an all-in or close to it, or trigger the 3bet that leads to an all-in.

if you raise too little and opponent flat calls with AA, you may then face a potsized bet on the turn when you have missed. At that point you are screwed.

So there, you would either raise big enough for AA villain to make a decision for all his chips, or not raise at all.

The key point, is the POT SIZED bet.

In LHE, villain may bet out, but you dont really care too much, do you? you have a +EV call at that point given the size of the pot, and there is nothing he can really do to punish you.
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Chopper
Old 10-28-2009, 06:56 PM #23 (permalink)  
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however, there are situations where you dont have majority equity in a pot, but bet anyway because you still have the most equity amongst the players in the hand. AA in a 6way pf pot comes to mind.

are you saying you wont cap your aces preflop because you dont have 50% equity? you are still pulling more money out of the pot than anyone else for EVERY bet that goes in......until things change.
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LawDude
Old 10-28-2009, 07:55 PM #24 (permalink)  
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Chopper, there is no scenario pre-flop where aces will not be an absolute favorite to win a hand, even if it isn't over 50 percent. Therefore, ANY TIME you put money into a pot pre-flop with aces and get callers, it is +EV. Just because there might be a 70 percent chance of you losing if you get into a 9-way pot with your rockets doesn't make the play wrong-- you only need more than 11 percent equity to make additional bets.

Further, the chances of you being ahead on the flop with your aces are greater than your total equity. This is exactly what I was getting at. From a value betting standpoint (i.e., assuming zero fold equity), it is always better to be ahead than behind on the flop, because you aren't subject to being charged any additional bets on the turn--rather, they have to suck out on YOU and then you get a chance to decide to fold based on the additional information. Missed draws cost you more than suckouts, all other things being equal.

Ideallly (I am not one who goes around quoting the fundamental theorem of poker all the time, but this is it in spades), you want to be putting money in the pot when you are ahead, getting correct pot odds or fold equity when you are behind, and getting out when you don't have correct pot odds or fold equity. It is always easier to execute this when you are ahead on the flop than behind, just as it is always easier to execute this when you are in position rather than out of position. Pocket aces, in addition to being likely to win the hand, are also even more likely to put you ahead on the flop where YOU can be the one charging other players for their draws. That is VERY valuable.
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Chopper
Old 10-28-2009, 09:17 PM #25 (permalink)  
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now, please understand how nitty i am viewing this response. you are saying only play when ahead or drawing profitably.....and fold all else. you favor made hands over big draws, and mention nothing of the fact that your villain is full of crap a good portion of the time, especially when the board is wet; therefore, you should call down with some pretty weak stuff in the name of sd value.

that is textbook nit. and, it gets paid. but, you will get paid more, and beat up on higher levels of competition if you dont play this way ALL the time.

sometimes, you just cant pin their range down so narrowly and you have to gambool a little for 1)information to use later and 2)to advertise the image you want villain to buy.

what you say below is particularly interesting to me for one reason....

Quote:
Chopper, there is no scenario pre-flop where aces will not be an Absolute favorite to win a hand, even if it isn't over 50 percent. Therefore, ANY TIME you put money into a pot pre-flop with aces and get callers, it is +EV. Just because there might be a 70 percent chance of you losing if you get into a 9-way pot with your rockets doesn't make the play wrong-- you only need more than 11 percent equity to make additional bets.
if you understand this "11% principle" so well, why dont you jam your nut draws on the flop most of the time? you seem to be such an advocate lately of only playing made hands and calling with odds....even when you have more than your share of equity to draw out in big, raised pots.

you have me scratching my head here.
LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

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LawDude
Old 10-28-2009, 11:08 PM #26 (permalink)  
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Chopper, you are ignoring that this discussion is about value betting. There are many good reasons to bet your hand, including fold equity, isolation, obtaining free cards, etc. But we were talking about value betting.

I bet plenty of draws. I also call some draws. I am not nearly as nitty as people think I am. But the fallacy is the idea that just because you stove a hand and it is +50 percent equity against the villain's range, you are betting for value. You aren't necessarily, because when you are behind but with an equity advantage, you still need to catch up and may have to put additional bets in on the turn not having done so, whereas the villain has the option of folding his hand if you catch up and bet.

The reality is that if you have good fold equity, it's great to bet your draws. If you can get a free card, it's great to bet your draws. If you are in a multiway pot where you are going to get lots of callers, it's great to bet your draws.

But if you are just putting money in heads up without any fold equity and you can't get a free card, you aren't really betting for value because you are still behind and will have to put in extra bets with less equity if you miss on the turn whereas the villain can bail from the hand or slow down if you hit.

Notice there are no absolutes here. Just a complicated puzzle of different situations where different strategies are optimal.
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Chopper
Old 10-29-2009, 02:18 AM #27 (permalink)  
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-when you have aces, your raise/bet is for value. when you have 4 players in a pot with your nut flush draw, your raise is for value.

i think i am still within the theme of the post.

-i know you arent as nitty as the recent posts appear.

-please prove to me where a bet going in a pot with greater than 50% equity is NOT for value.

-your reality paragraph is all about value.

-i see your point about the HU w/o FE. but, that is a hard one to know with certainty a lot of times. so, erring on aggression with outs is not the worst solution...if there is a "chance" your opponent will fold. many books suggest so in that wording.
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elipsesjeff
Old 10-29-2009, 02:59 AM #28 (permalink)  
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i'd rather poke my eye outs rather than read you two arguing with each other...

just grab each other's AIMs and then just post your conclusions when your done.


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Chopper
Old 10-29-2009, 05:08 AM #29 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
i'd rather poke my eye outs rather than read you two arguing with each other...

just grab each other's AIMs and then just post your conclusions when your done.
no offense, jeff, but no one is required to read this.....let alone post in here. if you dont like the conversation, you dont ever have to open it.

you were a pretty good limit player from what i've read, and i have asked for your advice many times. even as moderator of THIS forum, your standard response is that you dont play limit anymore and you basically decline to even get involved.

so forgive me if i continue to discuss this with someone that actually posts in here more than once a month in spite of you poking your eyes out.
LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
 
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