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| LawDude |
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PokerStars Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q  , AUTG calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 4 folds, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG calls, Hero calls Flop: (10 SB) J , 6 , 5 (3 players)SB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls Turn: (6.5 BB) 2 (3 players)SB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero caps, SB calls, UTG calls River: (18.5 BB) A (3 players)SB bets, 1 fold, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, Hero caps, SB calls Total pot: $13.25 (26.5 BB) | Rake: $0.40 Results below: SB mucked 3  , 5 (one pair, fives).Hero had Q , A (flush, Ace high).Outcome: Hero won $12.85 |
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Play for FREE and practice your game at...Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting! | ||||
| mrhappy333 |
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| nice | |||
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3 3 3 I'm only half evil.
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| Chopper |
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| any particular reason we didnt raise the flop? granted, you made more because you didnt.....just curious. | |||
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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| LawDude |
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Quote:
IO = EVOPASD / APIP Where: IO = implied odds EVOPASD = expected value of pot at showdown and APIP = amount put into pot Raising your draw increases the denominator of the fraction, and it increases it by a greater rate than the numerator (how much greater depends on how many folds you get). HOWEVER, raising your draw also generates fold equity. So you should raise your draw if and only if the fold equity that you generate will exceed the amount you are cutting your implied odds. In this instance, I didn't have any reads, but I knew that I was up against 2 players, so that means I need to get 2 players to fold to my raise. It may happen, but my experience is that the generic range of someone donking into a preflop raiser includes a lot of decent pairs and made hands that won't fold. Nothing incorrect about raising, but that's the poker theory behind it. |
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| Chopper |
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good equation. i havent seen it before. i am not the most "mathematical" of poker players by a long shot. i play a little more by what i've read and how i see it applying to what i am trying to accomplish. i dont calculate much when i decide to raise a draw....certainly not like that. i only look for a couple of conditions: - do i have any chance to win it all now? - have i been aggressive lately, and is there any chance raising here will throw villains off.....make my future hands more difficult to read? - am i HU? because of the first condition, i almost always raise draws HU. - will i benefit from a bloated pot? - do i have the most equity in the pot at this point? to me, that generally gives me a "yes" to raise my draws.....so long as i dont knock others out in bigger, multiway pots (relative position). i will just call along sometimes, but that is also to balance other weaker draws where i may just come along with proper odds, such as bottom pair + gutters or naked overcard draws. i dont know that either way is better. but, i default to raising most of the time because i believe we benefit from playing as big a pot as we can against the poorer competition.....even if it means i am allowing them to play their hands correctly in the process. i feel i win more than my fair share of big pots, and more than half the time i am the one making it big. that has to be a big advantage for me........and, the reason i suffer from some wicked variance down here sometimes....lol. |
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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| LawDude |
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Well, there's nothing wrong with what you are doing. Raising draws for value often works well and increases the amount you are paid off; it also gives you a more aggressive table image and allows you to set up bluffs. But my equation was not intended to make people think precisely mathematically. Rather, it's more conceptual-- these raises cut your implied odds, so what you need to think about is whether you are getting the fold equity to make up for the loss in implied odds. Indeed, a lot of the mathematics of poker is not exact, but conceptual. (It's exact in no limit when you are deciding whether to call an all-in shove and you have the player on a certain range.) It's about knowing what the variables are that are in play so that one can make a good decision. Here, the two main variables are the loss of implied odds and the gain in fold equity-- this guides you as to how to think about the issue. |
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| WillburForce |
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nice nice, but the title is mis-leading. If this was NL you would have had his whole stack. 
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Normski
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| Chopper |
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...which is why we dont typically raise big pot draws unless we have greater odds than the number of players. (ie, flush draw on turn with 2 players vs flush draw to the nuts on the flop with 5 players.) in the former we dont probably have a lot of FE and should probably shy away from putting a ton of money in the pot, especially if it only folds off one guy. however, in the latter example, we should probably be putting as much money in the pot as we can, given we dont fold most of them out, since we have about a 3:1 shot to win a pot when our equity share is 5:1. |
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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| Chopper |
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i will add one more thing. i think that all the betting/raising i do earns me my thin value much better, too. (horrible grammar...lol) it encourages players to call me down with bottom pair, or worse, because they notice i am always in there and am aggressive when i am. they think they will just let me spew it off, which sometimes is correct, but a lot of times i am just earning more value off of my weaker stuff......and they don't suspect i have stronger stuff until they raise me and i RR them...  i also think being borderline overly aggro makes it easier to read THEIR hands. they just call along, which only tells me that they have something. but, when they raise, i know marginal to medium strong stuff is toast. i can make some pretty easy folds when they play back at me.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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| BennyLaRue |
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Quote:
Nut flush draw and overs...raise flop. |
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| LawDude |
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Quote:
And obviously, opponents' ranges matter, but those are part of your fold equity and outs/implied odds calculations. As for free card plays, I must say that I am much less enamored with them than many poker authors are. I do them occasionally when I have position and think I can improve by the river, and I am against a player or players who I am almost certain will check the turn, but I have found that more and more people are donking the turn against bettors/raisers on the flop, which make free card plays less effective. (By the way, this is far more true online than at casinos. In most live play, go ahead and make the raise for the free card every chance you can.) |
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| BennyLaRue |
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Quote:
Take an extreme example: an open ended straight flush draw with overs. You have, like, 219 outs and most of them are clean. It's likely you are currently behind two opponents but are still favored to win against most holdings x2. Code:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
7,189,686 games 0.297 secs 24,207,696 games/sec
Board: Tc 9c 5h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.364% 50.32% 01.04% 3618126 74769.67 { QcJc }
Hand 1: 24.318% 22.69% 01.63% 1631127 117268.17 { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 24.318% 22.69% 01.63% 1631127 117268.17 { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Your pot equity (ie. draw strength and opp ranges) MUST be a consideration here. If your only concern is implied odds, you're looking in the wrong place. Position and free cards plays potentially reduce the investment required to see a showdown with marginal holdings. Regardless of whether or not you like them, they can be a consideration in the math. |
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| LawDude |
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Quote:
What we are talking about is raising hands that are NOT favorites; THAT raise calculation has to be based on getting enough fold equity to make up for the cut in the implied odds. Here's another way to think about this. Suppose you raise your flush draw and get 2 callers. ON THAT BET, you are getting 2 to 1. That's it. This means that on the flop, you are getting slightly less than what your chances are of winning the hand, and on the turn, you are getting considerably less. Given that fact, you better have enough fold equity to make up for the insufficient odds. |
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| Chopper |
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with AQs here, i am not concerned with "free cards," unless i am giving them. i am concerned with MY equity in this pot. i count 15 outs, and on the flop that gives me a 60%ish chance to win this pot. therefore, i am ramming my ass off getting money into this pot. if i win it now, so be it. and, i am not taking a free card on this turn, either. i am still going to be 30%ish even if a K falls, i may improve on the turn, and a LOT of scare cards can fall that would make our villains think either "he hit it" when i bet again or "he is so full of shit. i call down" when i did hit it. they will never know, and it helps me help them to make their mistakes. because of my nut draw of 9 outs, i cannot be too far behind in this hand, and with a 3rd player in the hand, i am not slowing up until the river bricks me. if the turn gets c/r'd, i dont 3bet...i just call, obv. now, if i am UTG, i am not likely raising this flop. but, we have the choice to close the action or raise to put more money in the pot. if BB 3bets, i cap. |
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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| BennyLaRue |
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Quote:
Code:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
6,458,256 games 0.251 secs 25,730,103 games/sec
Board: Jd 6h 5d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.859% 44.87% 01.99% 2897580 128711.33 { AdQd }
Hand 1: 26.570% 24.94% 01.63% 1610875 105107.33 { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 26.570% 24.94% 01.63% 1610875 105107.33 { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
---
When it comes to playing flush draws, generally, you're 33% to hit by the river with a flush draw. On non-scary boards, raising the flop is usually right. Add in the overs, the fact that the FD is to the nuts and the fact that you're in position and get to re-evaluate on the turn without it costing you money; raising is absolutely clear. Read more about pot equity...against two opps, if you only put in a third of the money and stand to make more than a third, that's precisely where your profit comes from. |
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| LawDude |
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That analysis can't be right, Benny, because you don't have 53 in villain's range. 
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| LawDude |
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More seriously, Benny, you need to adjust your stove calculation to the villains' likely CALLING range, and then add to the pot equity any fold equity (i.e., both players folding) to get the actual equity in the pot. You shouldn't assume that hands that miss this board (like As9s, for instance) are going to call flop raises here. Also, even if a raise is equity justified, it can still be wrong if it drives people out of the pot who might be paying you off on later streets. You are getting pot odds and losing implied odds. |
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| BennyLaRue |
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Quote:
Quote:
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| LawDude |
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I didn't have any read on this guy-- he was there maybe 5 hands. But I would think the generic range for calling the pre-flop raise is going to be that segment of the player's 3-betting range consisting of (1) overcards and (2) hands that hit at least a piece of the flop or some sort of draw. As for implied odds, this is the slowplay debate all over again. If you hit your big hand, you want lots of people in the pot, especially at lower limits. That's how you get paid off. If your raise drives everyone out, fine, you win the hand with an unmade hand, and that's fine. But if you thin the field, that is the worst of all possible worlds with a big draw, because now you will still lose the hand if you miss and are less likely to be paid off when you hit. If you are drawing, you either want everyone to fold or you want everyone to call. Bets that pay decent pot odds but which cut your eventual payoff on later streets when the bets are doubled are going to be negative EV a lot of the time unless they have significant fold equity. There is no exact science here, and PokerStove is like a bikini-- it shows you a lot, but it doesn't show you everything. |
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| Chopper |
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you need to build BIG pots with BIG hands. and, this may not be a "made" hand, yet, but it IS a BIG hand designed for a huge pot. Quote:
you may not get paid with a big draw if everyone folds, but you won't ever get paid, either if you never build a pot. the only thing that should enter your decision here is that you have more than 33% equity in this pot. once you have better pot odds than equity share, you RAISE. the only spot you wont is if you are 2nd to act in a 4way+ after the lead just donked it. you wont shut players out in this specific hand. you just eek one more sb out of them when you have the better chance to have the better hand by showdown. |
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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| BennyLaRue |
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I liked your unedited post better, Chop.
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| Chopper |
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Quote:
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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| BennyLaRue |
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Quote:
It's clear you don't understand the concept of pot equity and don't care to listen. You're just trying to get the last word in now. No problem...go for it. |
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| KoRnholio |
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| Heads up, raising the nfdA+overs is often a free card play. But 3way or more, it's a straight up equity in the bank+possible free card play. Pretty much a no brainer raise. | |||
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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| LawDude |
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Quote:
Consider the following pot. You have AA. You flop AA7. You have one opponent, who you are convinced will almost certainly fold if you bet the flop. But your equity in the pot almost 100 percent. Now, Benny, do you bet because you have 100 percent equity? Or do you check because you are just getting worse hands to fold? Now, apply that logic to draws.... (This is why I said it's the slowplay debate all over again.) (By the way, I did not say you can't quantify and mathematize this issue if you are inclined to do so. I believe Sklansky has a chapter on slowplay in one of his books that does a great job of doing it. What I DID say is that a quick and dirty pot equity calculation on PokerStove obscures some important parts of the puzzle (hence the bikini comparison), and the speculation as to how your opponents will react to your play is going to be far from exact.) |
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| KoRnholio |
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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| Latest Poker News | |
| KoRnholio |
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
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| According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ... | |
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