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elipsesjeff
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10-31-2005, 06:36 PM
Post subject: Why 10k, 40k hands is not a large sample size.
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#1 (permalink)
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WhooFleuryScores
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Massachusetts
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Good to see some reassurance for me;I've actually been doing better tonight on PokerStars .25/.50.
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andr3w321
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Chapel Hill, NC
Posts: 413
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Wow so basically you are never going to know for sure if you are truly a winning poker player? That is scary. Some people there were suggesting 300-400K hands are necessary.
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koolmoe
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Drowning in prosperity
Posts: 1,279
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It's more informative to look at your hands than to try to get anything meaningful from fewer than 100K hands.
You need many many hands to get your win rate to converge to a relatively tight range. Unfortunately, there is no way you are the same player when you play your 300,000th hand as you were when you played your first. It is also very unlikely that your opponents will treat you the same. Therefore, a "converged" win rate is pretty meaningless, IMO.
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Poker is freedom
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pokerfanatic
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: 6max limit tables
Posts: 1,968
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by andr3w321
Wow so basically you are never going to know for sure if you are truly a winning poker player? That is scary. Some people there were suggesting 300-400K hands are necessary.
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Some players don't even play that many in a single physical year (33333.33...) pulling 33k hands a month if or 400K/365 = 1095.89, you’re looking at 1111.11... hands per day, so i know for a fact that not everyone can pull that kind of weight 365 days everyday unless they have no life and do it for a living...
I think you can get a reasonable guess at it over the course of the entire year as long as the sample size is over 250K hands... which is like 684.93 hands a day given that many of you don't play every day the avg would move to around 800 or something depending on variables...
So I think if you look at a years worth of play I think you can get a gauge if you have leaks if you’re a winning player (possible a +/- rang of about 1bb)...
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
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Theres some value to disregarding the "What is my winrate?" question. It's really quite statistically insignificant. As other posters on that thread said, the 'long term' is sufficiently 'long' that you'll never reach it until about 12 hours before you die. At that point, you can happily say you think you made 2bb/100. Congratulations, who cares? Problem is you aren't the same player at hand 5k as you are at hand 500k. You're at different stakes with different levels of knowledge. To be statistically useful, you'd need x hundred thousand hands (since the actual hand count itself is in dispute.. again who cares) at ONE level (and at one site, since different sites play differently)
Tommy Angelo said that to make 700,000 hands even at 40 hours a week for 50 weeks a year, it'd take him TEN YEARS to statistically verify that he's a winning player.
Its just not useful. Its a nice thing to approximate. Its a great visual representation of progress. But its really meaningless.
Its far more important, in my opinion, to analyze your play over 10k hands. Your winrate may be -2.75bb/100 but if your VPIP is good, your PFR is good, your W2SD is good, your blind play numbers are good, then you're doing fine.
You'll never have 100% incontrovertible 'proof' you're a winning player. Get over it, and play your game the best you can every session.
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