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who says micro limits cant be beat?

  
 
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stevedonel
Old 09-28-2004, 02:53 AM     Post subject: who says micro limits cant be beat? #1 (permalink)  
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My $5 SnG games have been on a major skid lately, causing my BR to go from 170 to 13 in the past two weeks. (happy I withdrew that $200 first) So I decided to hit the micros and do a little bottom-feeding.

Stats:
Hands: 136
VP$IP: 32%
W$WSF: 27%
BB/100 hands: 29
Went to SD: 40%
Won $ @ SD: 59%
PFR: 4.4%

Aggression Rating: .64 (overall)



You will of course see this kind of thing once in a while, but I just told him "nh". You gotta build up that notion of "any two cards will do", and just take the $ back later. Fnord,I hope this wasnt one of you followers. All in all, a fun and slightly profitable time.


CARDSON
*********** # 2 **************
PokerStars Game #725597913: Hold'em Limit ($0.02/$0.04) - 2004/09/27 - 20:56:06 (ET)
Table 'Iapetus' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: analytical55 ($0.33 in chips)
Seat 3: Serene ($0.96 in chips)
Seat 5: YouAndMe2 ($0.54 in chips)
Seat 6: no t-bone ($0.26 in chips)
Seat 7: lashes2 ($0.22 in chips)
Seat 8: giglalad173 ($0.57 in chips)
Seat 9: dommia ($1.21 in chips)
Seat 10: RDU $teve ($1.36 in chips)
Serene: posts small blind $0.01
YouAndMe2: posts big blind $0.02
RDU $teve: posts big blind $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RDU $teve [Ks Kh]
no t-bone: calls $0.02
lashes2: folds
giglalad173: folds
dommia: calls $0.02
RDU $teve: raises $0.02 to $0.04
analytical55: calls $0.04
Serene: folds
YouAndMe2: calls $0.02
no t-bone: calls $0.02
dommia: calls $0.02
*** FLOP *** [7h 2d 4h]
YouAndMe2: checks
no t-bone: checks
dommia: bets $0.02
RDU $teve: raises $0.02 to $0.04
analytical55: calls $0.04
YouAndMe2: calls $0.04
no t-bone: folds
dommia: calls $0.02
*** TURN *** [7h 2d 4h] [Js]
YouAndMe2: checks
dommia: bets $0.04
RDU $teve: raises $0.04 to $0.08
analytical55: calls $0.08
YouAndMe2: folds
dommia: raises $0.04 to $0.12
RDU $teve: calls $0.04
IceProphet joins the table at seat #4
analytical55: calls $0.04
*** RIVER *** [7h 2d 4h Js] [Qs]
dommia: bets $0.04
RDU $teve: calls $0.04
analytical55: calls $0.04
*** SHOW DOWN ***
dommia: shows [4d 7c] (two pair, Sevens and Fours)
RDU $teve: shows [Ks Kh] (a pair of Kings)
analytical55: mucks hand
dommia collected $0.85 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $0.85 | Rake $0
Board [7h 2d 4h Js Qs]
Seat 1: analytical55 (button) mucked [5c Jh] - a pair of Jacks
Seat 3: Serene (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: YouAndMe2 (big blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 6: no t-bone folded on the Flop
Seat 7: lashes2 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: giglalad173 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: dommia showed [4d 7c] and won ($0.85) with two pair, Sevens and Fours
Seat 10: RDU $teve showed [Ks Kh] and lost with a pair of Kings
Is that guy still part of the forum??
 
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stevedonel
Old 09-29-2004, 03:57 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Im looking for suggestions on what kind of numbers I should be shooting for. I keep hearing "less than 20% VP$IP, and more than 5% PFR %". As you can see, I worked on that a little; this may have helped with my win % (the last two stats), but we'll see in the long run. Dont worry about last nights BB/100, I took two bad beats in the middle of the session.

My party stats thus far
--------------------------Last night---------Overall
Game level-------------.50˘/$1-----------.50˘/$1
Total $ won-------------2.5----------------127.18
Hands Played-----------150---------------2741
Hours Played-----------2.52---------------48.3
BB/100 Hands----------1.6667------------4.6399
VP$IP-------------------20.6667-----------22.8019
PFR %-------------------5.333-------------3.8672
W @ SD %--------------61.54-------------57.438
WWSF %----------------27.2727----------26.7966


Here, I dont think I have to much to worry about; I do plan on bringing the VP$IP down some though. What kind of BB/100 should I be looking for in these; I've been thinking 10-15 sounds right.

Pokerstars stats
--------------------------Last night---------Overall
Game level-------------.02/.04------------.02/.04
Total $ won-------------1.06---------------2.63
Hands Played-----------212----------------348
Hours Played-----------3.3833------------5.7333
BB/100 Hands----------12.5--------------18.8937
VP$IP-------------------27.8302-----------29.3103
PFR %-------------------6.6038------------5.7471
W @ SD %--------------55-----------------57.1429
WWSF %----------------20.2532-----------23.1343


PS Im still looking for a better way to export from pokertracker and to post these numbers on here. any suggestions?
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Fnord
Old 09-29-2004, 04:04 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Over the long run... (you really need 100k hands to get a good read on your win rate.)

~0BB/100 - Keeping up with the rake
up to 1BB/100 - Winning player
1+BB/100 - Soundly beating the game
3+BB/100 - Crushing the game
5+BB/100 - Near perfect play

Your samples are too small for even VP$IP/PFR, you really needs at least 1k hands to level out. Even then some hot/cold cards can swing it a couple %.
 
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stevedonel
Old 09-29-2004, 04:17 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Your samples are too small for even VP$IP/PFR, you really needs at least 1k hands to level out.
Are you saying I shouldnt even look at the numbers until after several thousand hands? How else can you judge your game from night to night, week to week then?

I dont want to go 3 weeks playing wrong but getting hot cards, then hit the inevitable cold streak while still playing wrong. I'm starting to think this is what happened with my run on the 3/6 game, where I was averaging almost 4BB/100 and then went crash-n-burn.
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Fnord
Old 09-29-2004, 04:34 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveDonel
Are you saying I shouldnt even look at the numbers until after several thousand hands? How else can you judge your game from night to night, week to week then?
You can't. All you can do in the short term is study hands to see if you're making the best possible decisions.

After a thousand or so hands you should have a good idea of where you're at with VP$IP and PFR. After 20k or so you can begin to make educated guesses as to if you can beat the game.

There really isn't a "correct" VP$IP and PFR. The better of a player you are, the more hands you can play profitably. At some point you reach neutral EV and are just adding to your variance. Although, a pretty ABC TAggish player runs around 17%/8%. I've seen numbers from winning players reported between 12-25%/5-12%
 
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Buxx
Old 09-29-2004, 09:38 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Fnord,

Don't you think this stuff is a tad distracting, I would think there would be a tendancy to concentrate more on your stats than winning money.

Oh, and statistics aside, I feel if you are unable to tell whether or not you can beat a game within a few hours of play in that game, you probably can't

Buxx
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stevedonel
Old 09-30-2004, 02:29 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buxx
Fnord,

Don't you think this stuff is a tad distracting, I would think there would be a tendancy to concentrate more on your stats than winning money.

Oh, and statistics aside, I feel if you are unable to tell whether or not you can beat a game within a few hours of play in that game, you probably can't

Buxx
I agree, you need to be able to make adjustments along the way. Clearly the more hands the better, for figuring out where you're going wrong/right. I doubt it's possible to get to 100,000 hands playing incorrectly, without going broke.
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Fnord
Old 10-02-2004, 03:30 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Just to show you how silly a small sample size is....

From last night:

458 hands
15.72% VP$IP
7BB/100
9.17% PFR
AF:
Flop: 4.27
Turn: 16.5
River: 3.83
Overall: 5.64 (post-flop)

Must be something about early in the month...
 
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