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When you think you're beaten

  
 
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silverfist
Old 12-28-2005, 04:59 AM     Post subject: When you think you're beaten #1 (permalink)  
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silverfist
In cases like this, where someone check-raises me on the turn and I just have top pair, should I just dump it? I think I'm probably beaten, but I've got a good hand. At what point should I start crying calling?

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Preflop: Silverfist is MP3 with K, Q. CO posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls, 3 folds, Silverfist raises, 3 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) 4, 5, 2 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Silverfist bets, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (5.20 BB) K (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Silverfist bets, BB calls, UTG raises, Silverfist calls, BB calls.

River: (11.20 BB) Q (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Silverfist calls, BB folds.

Final Pot: 13.20 BB

Edit: I said middle pair but meant top pair.
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bearcats05
Old 12-28-2005, 05:02 AM #2 (permalink)  
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edit: you changed it... must have posted the wrong hand history....
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Ltrain
Old 12-28-2005, 02:42 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Do you have PT? My rule of thumb is a checkraise on the turn with a player under 1 AF is not a bluff and they will have at least two pair. Over that it depends . More aggressive and maniacal opponents will checkraise you here with top pair hands you could beat with your kicker, flush draws, or for 40/20 guys maybe even a stone cold bluff.
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Romulus141
Old 12-28-2005, 03:16 PM #4 (permalink)  
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PT stats would be helpful in this situation.

Basically, if the dude is passive post-flop, I'd take it as a legit show of strength. You can put him on two-pair or a flush. Heck, he may have something like A3 and flopped the wheel straight and is "slowplaying." Considering the mind of a passive player though, my guess is he actually has the flush. If he had anything else, the prescence of the flush would probably scare him away from raising. Not always true of course, but these types of players don't tend to raise the turn without something really nice, and it's usually obvious what it is. The pot is moderately large when it gets back to you on the turn, so peeling one off for the river is fine if you think your remaining outs are still alright (at least some of the time), but as you saw, a river queen tied you to showdown. If your hand doesn't improve in this case, I'm dumping on the river.

Against an aggressive/maniac type player, I'm sticking around. Such a player is more prone to semi-bluffing or bluffing. I'm calling this type of player down. I wouldn't get into a raise war though, because it can get very expensive against these types.
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