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when to use odd to improve hand from flop to river in FLHE
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rowhousepd
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09-22-2009, 06:50 PM
Post subject: when to use odd to improve hand from flop to river in FLHE
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Posts: 213
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Newbie question here about LIMIT Holdem:
I think I understand how & why to calculate odds on the flop to improve your hand on the turn when deciding whether to call a bet or fold. But what I'm not sure about is how/when you would use your odds to make your hand on by the river. I've been playing with the former calculations for situations like this:
I'm in late position against three opponents and make middle pair with a rainbow flop (one is the same suit as my suited hold cards). The first to act bets, and I put him on top pair or an overpair; one person folds, the other calls.
Normally, I'd think I have 5 outs at this point to either make trips or two pair of the turn to beat the villain's pair, which would require better than 8.5 pot odds to make the call. But I've also flopped a back door flush draw here, which means I'm a little less than 2:1 to hit my flush by the river. And that's a big difference.
So the question here is.... which odds to I use to determine what I do -- the 8.5:1 odds to hit trips or 2 pair on the turn, or the 2:1 odds to hit my back door flush by the river? I think people the latter sometimes, but perhaps it's different in FLHE vs NLHE. I've been almost exclusively using the odds for the turn. Is that a bad idea?
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LawDude
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09-22-2009, 06:58 PM
Post subject: Re: when to use odd to improve hand from flop to river in FL
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#2 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by rowhousepd
Newbie question here about LIMIT Holdem:
I think I understand how & why to calculate odds on the flop to improve your hand on the turn when deciding whether to call a bet or fold. But what I'm not sure about is how/when you would use your odds to make your hand on by the river. I've been playing with the former calculations for situations like this:
I'm in late position against three opponents and make middle pair with a rainbow flop (one is the same suit as my suited hold cards). The first to act bets, and I put him on top pair or an overpair; one person folds, the other calls.
Normally, I'd think I have 5 outs at this point to either make trips or two pair of the turn to beat the villain's pair, which would require better than 8.5 pot odds to make the call. But I've also flopped a back door flush draw here, which means I'm a little less than 2:1 to hit my flush by the river. And that's a big difference.
So the question here is.... which odds to I use to determine what I do -- the 8.5:1 odds to hit trips or 2 pair on the turn, or the 2:1 odds to hit my back door flush by the river? I think people the latter sometimes, but perhaps it's different in FLHE vs NLHE. I've been almost exclusively using the odds for the turn. Is that a bad idea?
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I think you are actually about 20 to 1 to turn and river your backdoor flush draw, not 2-1. This translates, if you care to calculate your odds relatively precisely, into about one additional out.
So just say you have 6 outs rather than 5, and make the decision based on that.
Personally, I don't even go that precise. I just say that I am more willing to make a marginal call (i.e., one based on my estimation of implied odds where the pot odds are not good enough) where I have a backdoor draw, because it gives the hand some additional potential. Not the prettiest way of doing it, but it gets you to the same place.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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i dont think about it that much. i use the 2/4 rule. double your outs for one card to come and quadruple your outs for 2 cards to come.
for example, you have a nut flush draw on the flop. 9 outs, right? 18% to hit on the turn, and 36% by the river. so, loosely (and not assuming turn betting for the second half of the rule), you get 5:1 on the flop and 3:1 by the river. if the pot is offering you those odds, you chase it down. in lower stakes games, and home games, this is enough to be correct the vast majority of the time.....and it saves brain power for possibly following other action and picking up more information in the limited time you may have.
your "implied" odds will often balance out the fact that a bet will be coming on the turn anyway.
but your question is more complex than this simplicity....see next post.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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your question involves a LOT in a LHE game. far more complex than NL, imo.....and the reason i like LHE over NL these days.
you have 5 outs for trips/2pr. great. but, do ALL 5 of those outs give you the best hand? is the flop drawy? if villain holds TP, and the board pairs the other card, what now? does villain donk flops? does he lead draws? does he fire at a whiffed AK?
these are all things that are in play. and, you have to determine the course of action for the combination of factors.
and, your runner-runner isnt 2:1. its horribly worse than that because it requires consecutive cards to come off. you need 1 of 9 for 11% and THEN 1 of 8 (remaining clubs or whatever) to complete it. 1 of 8 is 13%. you need to catch a 1:9 shot and follow it up with a 1:8 shot. no way this is 2:1, right?
point is: dont count on the runner-runner stuff until you pick up the first runner. then, calculate it in with your other outs for "one more card to come." like a coin toss, it is a normal flush draw with one card to come now....not a runner runner draw anymore.
now, another concept for LHE....hand protection. you have middle pair and a couple villains. villain leads and you?
is the board drawy? would you stand a better chance at winning the hand if you were HU with the donk bettor? do you want the others to go away to improve your chances of winning the pot? would you mind winning right now?
all those are probably "yes," right? so, you dont call and chase your draw........you PROTECT YOUR HAND WITH A RAISE. force that other villain to call 2 bets to see the next card while carrying the threat of you doing it again when he misses his draw. shut the donk bettor down, when the bets double in size on the turn, and take your free river card.....or bet again....your choice. take the initiative in this hand.
or, if you have stations in the hand, just fold.....you dont have enough outs to continue in a pot like this anyway.
choice is yours. there are many factors. and many ways you can justify the correct play. pick one and run with it.
DONT JUST CALL ALONG. thats how you lose your money in limit games.
sorry. that was assuming you were next to act, which you stated you werent. you were closing the action. so...
you would call with proper odds for 5 "clean outs" or raise so they check to you and you can check behind for a free look at the river. that's the "free card play." and, you should become very familiar with it if you want to play more limit games. put in the raise on the smaller street, where it's cheaper, to spook them into checking to you on the turn. you can then bet if you improve or take your free card if you dont.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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Listen to Chopper. Also, any time a player does the "free card play" against you, take a note. If the same player raises the flop against you again on a wet board when you probably have the best hand, just call the raise and donk the turn if they don't hit their draw. They love that.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by LawDude
Listen to Chopper. Also, any time a player does the "free card play" against you, take a note. If the same player raises the flop against you again on a wet board when you probably have the best hand, just call the raise and donk the turn if they don't hit their draw. They love that. 
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i need to remember to take that note more. but, alas, i play at a level that doesnt require that yet. i can still play my cards only. of course, to advance....
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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rowhousepd
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Straight
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Posts: 213
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Thanks for the great reply. This is great. First off, indeed, you're totally right -- indeed I meant 23:1. Typo.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chopper
so, loosely (and not assuming turn betting for the second half of the rule), you get 5:1 on the flop and 3:1 by the river.
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Actually would it be more like 4:1 roughly to the turn? 47 cards ÷ 9 outs = 1 out of 5 = 4:1 against, no? Ugg. Maybe I’m not even sure how to calculate odds when you’re using odds-to-one and not percentages.
I do realize that the game involves more than a simple formula like this, and that to be a good player you need to think about whether you’re drawing dead, how the villain bet, what his tendencies are, etc., but right now I’m just trying to get the math down first.
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arborman
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 300
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I generally count my outs on the flop by reflex now (assigning half outs as appropriate), then divide 48 by the number. But then my choice about what to do usually has more to do with position and opponents than outs - though I suppose there are all those basic drawing hands which I play without thinking about them.
My favourite are the hands which are weak on the flop but marginally legitimate calls which grow into a winning hand later on - mostly because I love to get that tptk guy all het up about my 'crappy' play. With luck he'll make a note on me and misplay against me in the future, and if I can do it to him one or two more times he'll tilt and start swearing at me. One of the few times I will get into chat - only to be friendly (which pisses them off more than being a dick anyways).
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