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gutshot

11-29-2004, 04:55 PM Post subject: when to laydown AK

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2004

Location: lemonade was a popular drink and it still is

Posts: 608

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A

, K

. CO posts a blind of $0.25.
Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, CO (poster) calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (10 SB) A

, J

, 2

(5 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, MP2 calls, CO folds, SB calls, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, MP2 calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (13 BB) J

(4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero folds, MP2 calls, SB calls.

River: (16 BB) 8

(3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, MP2 calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 19 BB

BB played more hands than he should preflop, but he didn't showdown much. On the flop, I figure at least one, maybe two are lookin for additional diamonds and have BB on a weaker Ace, maybe even AJ, or betting 2nd pair.

BB firing out on the turn runs me out and I decided to let the others duke it out. Good time to leave?

-jay

"i think the biggest leak in my game is using 2nd level thinking against players who can't think on the first level." -Renton

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LockLow34

11-29-2004, 05:33 PM

#2 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jun 2004

Location: Ashburn, VA

Posts: 266

If BB is rather LAGgy, call him down to the river unless there's substantial action behind you on the turn. If he's loose-passive then fold when he comes out firing. My first guess would be he has A2, considering his passive play preflop and aggressive play on the flop. I can't put him on a J here. (Or is he the type that would play crap like J2 from the BB?)

Les_Worm

11-29-2004, 07:51 PM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: May 2004

Location: MI

Posts: 1,697

Personally, I would have raised the turn to find out where I'm at. You cap the flop but then fold to one bet on turn? I realize that the board paired but I don't think you can fold there unless you have a very solid read.

The artist formerly known as Knish
Only mediocre players are always at their best.
Phil Ivey Owns You

Fnord

11-29-2004, 11:37 PM

#4 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,333

Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

Horrible fold.

I'd raise the turn and see what happens. Certainly at least a call-down...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

gutshot

11-30-2004, 02:22 AM

#5 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2004

Location: lemonade was a popular drink and it still is

Posts: 608

Horrible fold indeed.

Results in white below:
BB has 9d As (two pair, aces and jacks).
MP2 has Qd 5d (one pair, jacks).
SB has Tc Kd (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: BB wins 19 BB.

Raise the turn makes sense. What if it comes back to me capped? Time to lay down now?

-jay

"i think the biggest leak in my game is using 2nd level thinking against players who can't think on the first level." -Renton

|~|ypermegachi

11-30-2004, 04:33 AM

#6 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: emo-kid

Posts: 3,580

Quote:

Originally Posted by gutshot

Horrible fold indeed.

Results in white below:
BB has 9d As (two pair, aces and jacks).
MP2 has Qd 5d (one pair, jacks).
SB has Tc Kd (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: BB wins 19 BB.

Raise the turn makes sense. What if it comes back to me capped? Time to lay down now?

make the crying call, and river call
you need to be over 90% sure to fold any decent hand.

lonnie

11-30-2004, 05:31 AM

#7 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2004

Posts: 923

Quote:

make the crying call, and river call
you need to be over 90% sure to fold any decent hand.

I don't think the fold was really THAT bad.

The part that makes this hand tricky is that there are 4 to the turn and there are two to act after gutshot. The likelihood of one of the four holding a J is pretty high. There is a pretty broad range of hands that can beat you. AJ, Jx, 22, etc. Also, if a diamond falls on the river, gutshot's hand is completely worthless.

I would raise the turn, then fold to a 3-bet, unless it is HU at that point. If HU, call the 3 bet, then call down on the river.

If it is the SB 3-betting, after checking the turn, then you can safely lay the hand down.

|~|ypermegachi

11-30-2004, 12:17 PM

#8 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: emo-kid

Posts: 3,580

just to put it into perspective...

the pot was 13BB on the turn. assuming you didn't raise, and just called. MP2 and SB would call, with now 17BB in the pot to the river. BB bets again, and the 3 of you call again, so now there's 21BB total pot.

you paid 2BB to win 21BB, or 10.5:1 odds. you only need to win a hand like this more than 8.7% of the time for it to be profitable. i clearly doubt more than 91.3% of the time someone will have a set or a jack.

now, if you raised the turn to protect your hand, you will probably get both MP3 and SB to fold. you have a very good hand and you need to protect it. BB is unlikely to reraise you, but he might. and if he does you should still call it and the river call.

if he reraises you on the turn, the pot size will be 18BB, and you check calling the river the total pot is 20BB. you're still getting 10:1 odds for your turn and river calls. they are probably better than that because you drove out the other 2 players, increasing the chances you would win (like times when they pair the flop, and trips on the river).

Fnord

11-30-2004, 03:53 PM

#9 (permalink)

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Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,333

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lonnie

I don't think the fold was really THAT bad.

If I put $1,000,000 in the pot how would you play it?

Laying down the best hand in big (multi) pots is the worst mistake you can make in a limit poker game.

Quote:

Originally Posted by hypermegachi

now, if you raised the turn to protect your hand, you will probably get both MP3 and SB to fold

Not at this limit. The flush draw should at least consider cold calling. Considering the river call + overcall neither clown is going anywhere. You still should raise and call a 3-bet though. Maybe fold if it's 2 back to you.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Humphrind

11-30-2004, 04:56 PM

#10 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: May 2004

Location: Kansas City

Posts: 1,887

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Laying down the best hand in big (multi) pots is the worst mistake you can make in a limit poker game.

Laying down the best hand seems like it would be a big mistake in any situation.

I can see how you would be scared of this hand. After the J paired on the turn, it's pretty scary to only be holding 2 pair. However, I have to agree, there was reason to check/call at least.

Similar Situation: NL tournament at the local bar. Someone had to leave in the middle of the tournament. He had been going all in on every hand and gotten pretty lucky. Now he had a huge stack and the director said to put the mony in the pot. Winner of the next hand got his stack. So the pot has about 10,000 before we start the hand. I get delt 82o. Should I call and see the flop? Hell Yes! If I have ANY chance to win, I want a shot at this 10,000. I'm getting about 200+ to 1 on my money.

I don't know what they have to say
It makes no difference anyway.
Whatever it is...
I'm against it.

gutshot

11-30-2004, 07:26 PM

#11 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2004

Location: lemonade was a popular drink and it still is

Posts: 608

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Still got to be careful with those folds..

Folding a winner is a 5++ BB mistake
Betting a loser is a 1-2BB mistake

Dug up this jewel from June 10. Certainly puts this hand in a new perspective for me.

-jay

"i think the biggest leak in my game is using 2nd level thinking against players who can't think on the first level." -Renton

Fnord

12-01-2004, 07:22 AM

#12 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,333

Quote:

Originally Posted by Humphrind

Laying down the best hand seems like it would be a big mistake in any situation.

Not when the pot is small relative to the amount of money behind.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

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