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quinlan20
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11-17-2006, 08:14 PM
Post subject: When do I fold this?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Hull, United Kingdom
Posts: 43
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PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A , A .
UTG raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls.
Flop: (9.50 SB) Q, T, 8 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, UTG folds, Hero calls.
Turn: (8.25 BB) 3 (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.
River: (10.25 BB) K (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.
Final Pot: 12.25 BB
When do I fold this, when he 3-bet the flop? My read on BB was that he was a completely illogical idiot. My river call was basically me hitting the mouse button in anger! 
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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Might as well fold it preflop if you are going to fold HU just because someone 3-bet you.
Seriously, though, you don't fold AA in limit without very good reason. You should at the very least call down with confidence on a board where both of opponents hole cards have to have hit to be ahead of you. Sure it would be correct to fold if you knew for sure opponent had a set or straight, but they have one pair and 2 pair hands often enough that folding is a big blunder here (especially when you have a read that your opponent is an idiot!!). You need a read that your opponent is very tight preflop, a couple other players in a raising war on the flop AND the turn, or a really really scary board to fold your rockets.
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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Might as well fold it preflop if you are going to fold HU just because someone 3-bet you.
Seriously, though, you don't fold AA in limit without very good reason. You should at the very least call down with confidence on a board where both of opponents hole cards have to have hit to be ahead of you. Sure it would be correct to fold if you knew for sure opponent had a set or straight, but they have one pair and 2 pair hands often enough that folding is a big blunder here (especially when you have a read that your opponent is an idiot!!). You need a read that your opponent is very tight preflop, a couple other players in a raising war on the flop AND the turn (sometimes you can tell on the flop), or a really really scary board to fold your rockets.
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quinlan20
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Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Hull, United Kingdom
Posts: 43
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Thanks Xanadu. Maybe if I wasn't on a 25bb downswing at the time I'd of been a little bit more hopeful.
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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Something to add because you may not realize it. AA has a lot of outs against 2pair. You are 28% to win on the flop if up against a single opponent with 2 pair. If you just call down here from the point of the 3-bet on, you make money in the long run because by the end of the hand your 2.5 BB only account for a little over 20% of the pot.
here are the kinds of hands you may be against with your winning chances following:
Straight: 4%
set: 11%
2 pair: 28%
OESD or pair plus gutshot: 66%
One pair, no other draw: 80%
If each of these categories were equally likely you would have about a 38% chance of winning, while only having to put in 20% of the pot to call down!! You would have to be about 90% sure your opponent had 2pair or better for you to lose money here. Here is a lot of the value from AA. You are a huge favorite to stay ahead of the hands you are ahead of, and have a lot of outs against many of the hands you may be behind (2pair). It becomes almost impossible for you to fold a big pot when Heads up because you don't need to be ahead very often to make a profit.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by quinlan20
Thanks Xanadu. Maybe if I wasn't on a 25bb downswing at the time I'd of been a little bit more hopeful.
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Hah, you're playing SHLHE right? 25bb aint a downswing, its nothing. Trust me, you'll wish 25bb was a downswing when you hit a real one. My personal best, 140bbs.
Being overrolled= 
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
Being overrolled= |
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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Given your read, cap the flop. You shouldn't be thinking about folding here.
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