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what odds do you want for a gut shot on a paired board?
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fooo
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10-19-2006, 04:53 AM
Post subject: what odds do you want for a gut shot on a paired board?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 33
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Dealt to Hero in BB: Qs Js
4 limpers, SB completes, Hero raises, 5 call.
Flop: 9h 9d 8c
SB, Hero check. MP bets, 1 fold, BN raises, SB calls
--> I'm getting nearly 16:2 to call here, but with a live player behind. Could be drawing practically dead against any number of hands, T9, 98, 88. I need much better than this to cold call here, right?
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arkitekton
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
Posts: 269
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I'd be surprised if the Button held much--it's the wrong street to start raising with hands such as 88 and 98. Also, particularly as the board is three-suited, anyone with a 9 might decide to slowplay on the flop. That said, you don't have the odds to call. With no backdoor draw, even without the possibilility of another raise behind you, this is not a pot you want to be contesting with only 16 to 2 odds. A full house (of course) beats you, as does a backdoor flush, and if you catch a ten on the turn you're vulnerable to redraws on the river. Throw in the possiblity that the flop will get 3-bet or even capped if you call and this is a clear fold.
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