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What is my river play?

  
 
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dsaxton
Old 02-07-2006, 03:16 AM     Post subject: What is my river play? #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is pretty loose-passive. What is my play on the river? If I choose to value bet, do I have to fold to a raise?

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with T, A.
4 folds, Hero raises, BB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) K, 8, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3 BB) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (5 BB) T (2 players)
Hero ?
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jmontis
Old 02-07-2006, 03:28 AM #2 (permalink)  
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bet, given the remote chance he has Tx for his busted flush draw
take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately
 
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ArcticKnight
Old 02-07-2006, 04:40 AM #3 (permalink)  
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I think if you don't bet here you are missing a value bet.

The only hand I see a passive player raising with here is K10, maybe an A3........(and, is he that passive not to raise the flop with a Kx???)

If you fear the raise on this type of board, I think you'll be checking a lot of rivers that you should be betting.
Gone golfing ..see ya in the Fall of 2006
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Wheeeeeeeee........
 
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dsaxton
Old 02-07-2006, 05:11 AM #4 (permalink)  
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dsaxton
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArcticKnight
I think if you don't bet here you are missing a value bet.

The only hand I see a passive player raising with here is K10, maybe an A3........(and, is he that passive not to raise the flop with a Kx???)

If you fear the raise on this type of board, I think you'll be checking a lot of rivers that you should be betting.
I'm not afraid of a raise here, but a raise is possible. I'm wondering what I do in the rare circumstance when it happens.

(By the way, I value bet the river, and she did in fact raise.)
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dsaxton
Old 02-07-2006, 07:45 AM #5 (permalink)  
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dsaxton
I guess I should've made a different post. I think the river value bet is a pretty easy play, but is folding to a raise automatic against a passive player?

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with T, A.
4 folds, Hero raises, BB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) K, 8, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3 BB) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (5 BB) T (2 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, Hero ?

Final Pot: 9 BB
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elipsesjeff
Old 02-07-2006, 03:27 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 I'm calling here. She could very well have a missed flush draw or playing an A8 this way.


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Demiparadigm
Old 02-08-2006, 01:51 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
I'm calling here. She could very well have a missed flush draw or playing an A8 this way.
I agree with this but I think it is close and comes down to reads. You need to win 12.5% of the time here to make this call profitable. There are opponents out there that will NEVER raise here without having you beat. To look these players up would be insane. If you are playing against me... call. I think you are showed a hand like KT the vast majority of the time even against me, but is it a full 87.5%? depends on your opponent. Anyway my point:

The difference between folding and calling here is minimal and doesn't matter against most opponents. In SSH, Ed Miller states that "losing a single bet is a small mistake, but losing an entire pot is catastrophic" but the truth is, in the long run it doesn't matter. Either way the EV for the bet is very small +/-. I tend to look people up in marginal situations, and from what I have read, jeff does it even more often than I do. But when I sit down and do the math, really I just hate folding the best hand... There's no justification for it outside of peace of mind. I guess, maybe shania will keep people from making plays at you when you have shown that you will go the distance with marginal holdings... but I am not sure how great an effect even that has in the long run.
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
 
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Xanadu
Old 02-08-2006, 03:44 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Demi, Miller also counts peace of mind as a good reason for making a marginal call.
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