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silverfist
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01-02-2006, 03:56 PM
Post subject: What kind of Swings Should Get Me Worried?
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 341
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I've been on a 74BB in ~1000 hands downswing since moving up to 0.50/1. Although I've made a few mistakes, I think I've largely been playing my best game. Should I be worried about this, or is this kind of downswing normal? So many of my defeats have been things like sets over sets (twice), overpairs to sets or wacky two pairs (ex. KK to J6), top pair losing to middle pairs spiking the river (three times), and my personal favourite, losing with a pair of nines on a 6787T board to T7.
Anyway, the question is whether I should start to seriously reevaluate my game at this point or whether this kind of swing is normal. I've gone on big swings before (I think I once dropped 100BB at 0.25/0.50), but it never hacked out 25% of my BR before. I've gone over my hand histories, and aside from a few mistakes (nothing new, really), can't see where my game has changes.
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pokerfanatic
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: 6max limit tables
Posts: 1,968
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Well if you are playing full ring 100bb downswings are not good and you need to look at your play, especially if it's over a short period of time...
I start to worry after I’m down 150 to 200bb half way though a month... or I drop something like 100bb+ in a single night...
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“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~
"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~
"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
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WhooFleuryScores
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 918
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If I were you I would do the following:
1)review my hands and play during the downswing.PT of course.
2)Reread a few sections from ITH,SSH,and Middle Limit Hold Em.
3)Take a small break-this will allow your mind to clear and not be bogged down on what happened with the last hand.
4)Play some of the .15/.30 and .25/.50 PR skin ring games.THose incredibly soft games will allow you to recoup much of your losses while allowing you to finetune your skills against weaker opposoition.
5)After you have recovered much of your losses you can try your hand again at .50/1.
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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Couple weeks ago in a B&M 5/10 game I lost 30BB in 30 hands. That's a fast and nasty swing, but there was nothing I could do about it. I had 15 solid raising hands preflop and lost every one. I won one pot in that time ... a rivered gutshot with T8o from the BB. Don't worry about the swings ... they will happen. Just make sure you are playing well and that the swing isn't affecting your game. If it is, take a break or move down stakes if that will help you relax and get your game back.
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nomore
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 45
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After 1000 hands at bet365 I was up 100BB at 1/2.
After 1800 hands on AbsolutePoker I am down 65BB; AA, AKo, AQs, JJ and TT have all actually lost money overall (KK has made 2.5BB profit).
I'd say try not to worry about it, downswings happen to everyone and it can be greatly demoralizing to be on a long losing streak.
Stick with it and if your game is solid your results will even out over time.
Dont let it affect your judgement.
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Mike_Ann
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 61
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losing with a pair of nines on a 6787T
this is very bad board for your straight here. J9, 67, 77, 87,T7 would beat your hand... didn't worthy to max out with your straight here
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pokerlearner
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Flush
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: california
Posts: 366
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downswings can go on long enough to start having doubts over your otherwise good game (assuming it is good). you start making adjustments where you shouldnt and dont adjust where you shoud stuff like that.
If you are just running bad (sets over sets, none of the pp holding up etc)...keep playing, maybe move down a limit for a while. i once had to drop down 3-4 limits before i played enough hands to get back in the winning mindset again.
you will get through it. trust me. in my first big downswing i felt the same and going through my second one right now. 
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ihategnomes
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 1,225
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Ive dropped 100BB in a night at 2/4 before.
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Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
<Bbickes> i still wanna know if the thing in your avatar is a real chick or not
<Bbickes> or am i e-crushing a dude
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Kessler
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 117
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I've been close to to that. Worst was -$300(75BB) @ a 2/4 table in one sitting. But that was a bad night combined with many drinks making for many drunk decisions. Best part was, is that I kept thinking "I know I've been drinking, but I don't think it's affecting my game at all. " But at the end of the night, had to have my buddy drive me home! 
-Kes
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If you can't be kind, at least have the decency to be vague.
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midas06
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: NZ
Posts: 2,196
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No, I downswing worse than you! 
To the OP, review your play, post hands where you do what you usually do, but are continually losing. You may have an unknown leak.
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