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What hands do you put people on here?

  
 
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Nehmer
Old 04-02-2005, 07:50 PM     Post subject: What hands do you put people on here? #1 (permalink)  
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Nehmer
To me the play of this hand makes little to no sense.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4, 4.
UTG raises, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, [color:#666666]1 fold[/color], Hero calls, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 4, 9, 5 (6 players)
SB bets, BB raises, UTG 3-bets, UTG+2 folds, MP2 calls, Hero caps, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (15 BB) K (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG folds, MP2 folds.

River: (17 BB) T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB folds.

Final Pot: 18 BB

I would have thought for sure with all the action on the flop that somebody would have to have the flush draw or a higher set, but then they all check/fold the turn except one guy who ends up folding the river. Wierd hand.
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ArcticKnight
Old 04-02-2005, 08:05 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Looks to me like everyone smoked a joint and mellowed out between the flop and turn......

Maybe a couple of folks were pushing AQs or AJs or Axs .....Even so, this wouldn't explain the play.....wierd.


By the way, was it a tough call for you pre-flop with 44.??
Gone golfing ..see ya in the Fall of 2006
PS. What did the snail on the turtle's back say?
Wheeeeeeeee........
 
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 04-02-2005, 08:14 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArcticKnight
By the way, was it a tough call for you pre-flop with 44.??
what's tough about? isn't this an automatic call?
 
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ArcticKnight
Old 04-02-2005, 09:07 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hypermegachi
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArcticKnight
By the way, was it a tough call for you pre-flop with 44.??
what's tough about? isn't this an automatic call?
When Fnord shared his PT stats a few weeks ago I looked to review them as much as possible to try and plugs leaks in my game.

Fnord had pocket 55 a total of 259 times and Cold-called PF (CCPF) 0 times

Fnord had 44 a total of 253 times and CCPF 0 times

I am not saying what Nehmer did was right or wrong - I am just asking.

But one thing for sure, cold calling here with 44 is not automatic for everyone, it's not even a rare occurance for Fnord.

I would be intersted in what others have to say.
Gone golfing ..see ya in the Fall of 2006
PS. What did the snail on the turtle's back say?
Wheeeeeeeee........
 
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Fnord
Old 04-02-2005, 09:50 PM #5 (permalink)  
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The cold call is probably +EV. I just had been avoiding spots like this until recently. Then again around the same time I opened up my limit game some more I hit a downswing and other things changed for me as well.


UTG had QQ-TT and had enough of a brain to find a turn fold.
BB had 9x with a shitty kicker and got out of town when you cold capped the flop.
SB was semi-bluffing a straight draw.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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jmontis
Old 04-02-2005, 11:13 PM #6 (permalink)  
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6 way pot going to the flop, for only 1 raise, 44 is an automatic call.

I don't cold call PP when it's likely to be a heads up pot, it has to be multiway.
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Demiparadigm
Old 04-04-2005, 04:02 PM #7 (permalink)  
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I fold pairs lower than 8 for a raise.
I fold 44,33,22 in EP

Reason is 88 can often hold up mulitway.
44 often loses (about half the time) when it does make a set.

just my .02
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
 
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Jay67s
Old 04-04-2005, 04:08 PM #8 (permalink)  
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I also normally fold Low PP to a cold call, but with 3 people already in for 2 bets, I would say its probably close to a good call here. If you don't hit you drop, if you hit a set you win a big pot. Like here.
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hagakure
Old 04-04-2005, 04:21 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Can someone link me to Fnord's hands that yall are talking about?
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Chicago_Kid
Old 04-04-2005, 04:38 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
44 often loses (about half the time) when it does make a set.
You have data on this? 50% loss with a set seems high to me.
"Been gone so long, forgot how to poker"
 
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hagakure
Old 04-04-2005, 04:51 PM #11 (permalink)  
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hagakure
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicago_Kid
Quote:
Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
44 often loses (about half the time) when it does make a set.
You have data on this? 50% loss with a set seems high to me.
nm...read it wrong...disregard

That does seem a bit high.
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 04-04-2005, 05:02 PM #12 (permalink)  
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i highly doubt a set will lose half the time. that thinking is too weak.

i shouldn't play low pocket pairs because i always run into bigger sets when i hit.

i don't draw to low flushes because someone will have a higher flush.

most of the time no one even has a draw to the flush on board.
 
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Demiparadigm
Old 04-05-2005, 04:39 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Demiparadigm
In a loose game expect to win 50-70% of the time with a low set. This is a huge +EV situation once you have your set, but not pre flop for a raise.
Your chances of making the set are about 8:1 and the pot is only laying you 3.5:1 for your call. You need to be very sure that you will get at least 5 more BBs when you hit your set for this to be a profitable call.
You are not afraid of only a higher set, but also straight and flush draws that can beat you. You also sometimes lose to a higher full house when the board pairs(for example a board of 489k9 vs a player with 89 or K9.... or even 94)
If 5 players see the flop and there are 2 suited cards, more than 80% of the time one of the players has a flush draw. (watch for this in your next game)
In NL where you can give poor odds to a draw, a set is almost pure gold.
In a tight game you will usually win, but you may not get the bets you need for it to be profitable.
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
 
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ArcticKnight
Old 04-05-2005, 05:04 AM #14 (permalink)  
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I just find it interesting that it's and automatic cold-call for Hyper, and and automatic non-call for Fnord (according to more than 500 occurances of 55 or 44 and no cold calls).

Both excellent players with different approaches.....
Gone golfing ..see ya in the Fall of 2006
PS. What did the snail on the turtle's back say?
Wheeeeeeeee........
 
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