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08-17-2008, 05:31 PM
Post subject: What games have the lowest variance?
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#1 (permalink)
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I heard that split-pot games have very low variance. Also, community card games have lower variance than, say, 5 card draw or stud. Any ideas? I mean, using my logic PLO8 should be a very low variance game. But anything more exotic?
Other than variance, which games can be beaten for a higher winrate than Hold'em? Which games also give a large edge to a skilled player vs. a merely average one? I mean I guess if I play stud or something like that I could probably beat it at a higher rate than Hold'em but only because the players are bad, not quite because of the game design itself.
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Ragnar4
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
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Yeah, but who do they have lower variance for?
I'd imagine that they have lower variance for losers, because losers don't understand the cardinal rule for split pot games, which is "drawing to escape with 1/2 the pot is wrong"
The winners I'd imagine are a little bit more frustrated because some idiot is always escaping with 1/2 their pot.
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The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here? 
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,601
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winners don't call people idiots or get frustrated with the people that pay the bills.
People making bad plays reduces the negative impacts of variance because your win rate improves. The idea that if everyone played 'right' you'd win more will consistently limit your poker development. if your edge is smaller, the times you run bad will be much worse. this thread shows the effects of win rate (ROI in SNGs) vs the chance of a major downswing.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...ht=spreadsheet
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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Gotta be fixed or spread limit O8
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,601
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hwang in his book def says LO8 is more profitable and less swingy than HE, I don't remember if he compares it to PLO8
re: stud don't forget unless you are rain man it's much harder to multi table, that's why I have it on the bottom of my list even though horse tourneys rule. So you need a pretty huge win rate to match the other games assuming you're playing 4+ tables. plus fuck razz
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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Hey are there scripts that keep track of dead cards in 7CS?
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TLR
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 5,007
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I would say LO8
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overflow
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Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 356
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I thought Limit games were higher variance for decent players because they can't extract as much value for their strong hands. Since a decent player is going to be saving a ton of bets, you can stretch your winrate _and_ reduce variance by playing PLO8.
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overflow
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Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 356
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As a side note, it's definitely going to be a split pot game.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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Limit has high variance at higher stakes and in shorthanded games
I game like $2/$4 FLO8 Full-Ring has to have like 0.01% variance.
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