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what do you think of the preflop and flop calls?

  
 
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 09-19-2005, 03:01 AM     Post subject: what do you think of the preflop and flop calls? #1 (permalink)  
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just sat down...no reads

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Preflop: Hero is SB with K, 3.
UTG raises, 1 fold, Button calls, Hero calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (7 SB) A, K, 5 (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Button calls, Hero calls.
 
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Fnord
Old 09-19-2005, 03:06 AM #2 (permalink)  
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I give UTG more respect and fold every street.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Old 09-19-2005, 03:11 AM #3 (permalink)  
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fold preflop because you have bad position and a very marginal hand
it would be probably better if you cold-called on the button than the situation now

on the turn you have 5 outs for two pair or better with one card and a backdoor flush draw for 1 more out
that's 25% chance to win against an ace by the river
10% chance to catch something you like on the turn
1-3.7 to get a flush draw on the turn

against an ace you're winning this hand something like 18% of the time because of folding the turn a lot

I'm assuming the other player has something like a straight draw

but I think it's a good call to make on the flop

what sucks about this is that you don't have late position so you can't use the free card play
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Fnord
Old 09-19-2005, 03:17 AM #4 (permalink)  
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You give him too much credit because his draw to 2 pair might be dead and is extremly vulnerable to re-draws. Plus being out of position is going to make it difficult win the max or lose the least. This pot isn't big enough to chase this crap down.

Consider that if he just sat down he should consider a 3-bet pre-flop is he's going to play this hand...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Old 09-19-2005, 03:29 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
You give him too much credit because his draw to 2 pair might be dead and is extremly vulnerable to re-draws. Plus being out of position is going to make it difficult win the max or lose the least. This pot isn't big enough to chase this crap down.

Consider that if he just sat down he should consider a 3-bet pre-flop is he's going to play this hand...
Well it's too complicated for me to figure out. Let's do a test run.

Board: Ah Kd 5c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 27.6990 % [ 00.26 00.02 ] { Kh3h }
Hand 2: 53.6569 % [ 00.52 00.02 ] { AA-TT, AKs-ATs, KQs-KJs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo }
Hand 3: 18.6440 % [ 00.17 00.02 ] { KJs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, KQo-KJo, QJo, JTo }


There, his equity is around what I expected it to be. I'm assuming the other player had a calling hand, but not a 3-betting hand. Maybe I should have put pocket pairs there, but then his flop call wouldn't make sense unless he has trip fives or is a bad player.
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Fnord
Old 09-19-2005, 03:38 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Even if equity justifies the call, you still need to consider the min/max argument. I'll argue you're paying too much when you're behind and not winning the max when you're ahead.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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pokerfanatic
Old 09-19-2005, 03:48 AM #7 (permalink)  
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I figure at best PF you are a 60/40 dog... i think this because he could easily have a K bettor kicker, which makes you a 70/30 dog which sucks, or he could have Ax given his car are like AJ then you've two live cards 60/40 dog... if he has a pp over 33 then you're a 70/30 dog, if he has AA your hand is about an 80/20 dog...

If you think you have one over card and he has like Qx or something then your obviously a 60/40 fav... lots of hands that can beat you and not so many that you beat, especially with him rising UTG if you have a read that he raises weaker hand then K high then I guess you could see a flop...

Other then that I’m dumping it no reads PF...
“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~

"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
 
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 09-19-2005, 04:14 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Even if equity justifies the call, you still need to consider the min/max argument. I'll argue you're paying too much when you're behind and not winning the max when you're ahead.
i don't think so. worst case scenario is catching the backdoor draw on the turn, and you check to UTG who bets, and the Button raises...thus putting you in a tough spot because it opens the betting to UTG again.

but still, with a draw to K high flush you're getting odds to see the river no matter what.

also, being out a position is a great opportunity to checkraise players when you hit...especially at a shorthanded table where they will autobet when checked to.
 
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Fnord
Old 09-19-2005, 05:14 AM #9 (permalink)  
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I think catching a heart is the best case. You know where you stand then and if you catch 2 pair or trips the river will be easy to play.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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elipsesjeff
Old 09-19-2005, 05:33 AM #10 (permalink)  
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 I'm usually folding this preflop, but check raising on the flop might win you this pot on the turn and can fold to a raise.


Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com

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Fnord
Old 09-19-2005, 05:42 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
I'm usually folding this preflop, but check raising on the flop might win you this pot on the turn and can fold to a raise.
What better hand is folding other than KQ? A c/r here is most likely to just kill off action from worse hands.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 09-19-2005, 11:26 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
I'm usually folding this preflop, but check raising on the flop might win you this pot on the turn and can fold to a raise.
if this was heads up you might have a case here. but with BB calling in between on a drawless board it's likely he has an ace or a king and is not folding.
 
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elipsesjeff
Old 09-19-2005, 12:28 PM #13 (permalink)  
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 didnt see bb...


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Old 09-19-2005, 09:53 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Even if equity justifies the call, you still need to consider the min/max argument. I'll argue you're paying too much when you're behind and not winning the max when you're ahead.
You're losing only the flop bet when you're behind and don't hit. When you hit two pair the guy with a pair of aces calls you down. It's impossible for them to know if you improved unless you hit trip kings. So you win the max due to the drawing nature of your hand and their difficulty to know if you've improved. You lose the least because you may fold the turn if you don't improve and someone bets. But you have the pot odds to "take one off" anyway.
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Fnord
Old 09-19-2005, 10:44 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Even if equity justifies the call, you still need to consider the min/max argument. I'll argue you're paying too much when you're behind and not winning the max when you're ahead.
You're losing only the flop bet when you're behind and don't hit. When you hit two pair the guy with a pair of aces calls you down. It's impossible for them to know if you improved unless you hit trip kings. So you win the max due to the drawing nature of your hand and their difficulty to know if you've improved. You lose the least because you may fold the turn if you don't improve and someone bets. But you have the pot odds to "take one off" anyway.
Consider how your hand plays post-flop against:

QQ-88 - No action when you improve, often fold the best hand
AK,AA,KK - Drawing dead and you'll get lots of action.
AQ-AT - Drawing to a full 5 outs, but vulnerable to re-draws against 2 pair and not likely to get much action if a K hits.
KQ,KJ - K outs tainted, will lose a lot. Ax texture of board won't give you a lot of action if you suck out.

Even if you hit, you won't feel good about putting in 3 or 4 bets.

...and you're out of position. Win the least, lose the max weeeeeee.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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euphoricism
Old 09-19-2005, 11:34 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Easy fold preflop.

1. Position, position position.
2. Someone from EP raised. Give him credit.
3. If you flop a K, your kicker is no good.
4. If you flop a 3, you're at the mercy of any over card.
5. If you flop a four-flush, you really dont have enough people in the hand to give you odds to chase.
6. Flopping two pair could easily still be no good.

So that gives you one chance -- you're trying to flop a flush. Good luck.

Edit: Didn't notice the (5 max). This may make a difference.
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Old 09-20-2005, 12:19 AM #17 (permalink)  
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1) position:
with a speculative hand i don't value position all that much because i'm drawing anyway, and it's unlikely i'll get a free card in a typical shorthanded 5/10 game, where opponents like to donk you on the turn.

2) someone from EP raised
you have a point here. i'm a 1:2 dog or drawing next to nothing vs AA and KA-4. it's still nearly 4:1 to call.

3) if you flop a K, your kicker is no good.
if my CR on the flop and turn followup don't work, i'm not putting more money in

4) if you flop a 3, you're at the mercy of overcards
doesn't matter because i'm folding

5) flopping a 4flush
i had odds to draw to a 2pair/trips/backdoor flush. certainly i have odds to the 2nd nut flush.

6) flopping 2 pair no good
good for them. i'm happy to pay off the better hand. i'm only in deep shit vs AA/KK/AK. the rest of the possible hands i have a decent chance to out draw.
 
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Old 09-20-2005, 12:20 AM #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Even if equity justifies the call, you still need to consider the min/max argument. I'll argue you're paying too much when you're behind and not winning the max when you're ahead.
You're losing only the flop bet when you're behind and don't hit. When you hit two pair the guy with a pair of aces calls you down. It's impossible for them to know if you improved unless you hit trip kings. So you win the max due to the drawing nature of your hand and their difficulty to know if you've improved. You lose the least because you may fold the turn if you don't improve and someone bets. But you have the pot odds to "take one off" anyway.
Consider how your hand plays post-flop against:

QQ-88 - No action when you improve, often fold the best hand
AK,AA,KK - Drawing dead and you'll get lots of action.
AQ-AT - Drawing to a full 5 outs, but vulnerable to re-draws against 2 pair and not likely to get much action if a K hits.
KQ,KJ - K outs tainted, will lose a lot. Ax texture of board won't give you a lot of action if you suck out.

Even if you hit, you won't feel good about putting in 3 or 4 bets.

...and you're out of position. Win the least, lose the max weeeeeee.
Against AA, AK, and KK you have runner-runner outs... there is no hand that has you drawing dead here
But does QQ bet on the turn into this board? Two callers... two overcards... two outs... nope, not happening. The BB probably calls the guy down anyway.
AQ definitely gives you action even if a king hits
Why? Because it's TPTK :)

It looks bad, but remember that the chance someone shares a king or two is much lower because YOU have one
Also, flush is a get-out-of-jail-free card
you beat pretty much any possible hand here with a flush except if the board pairs and you were against a set or two pair that filled up
Will a set of aces give you action when it comes heart-heart? Likely. This is where you earn the maximum.

1 small bet + 1 big bet to probably win the pot of 12BB

you pay the small bet on the flop
and the big bet if you hit your draw
so in the case you pick that draw up you pay 1.5BB to win 12BB
you hit 1/5 of the time
you pay 8BB to win 12BB

the small bet can allow you to make 2 pair or trips which can also allow you to win the pot of 12BB 50% of the time
the flush draw call can also allow you to make these possibilities

one small bet is too little to pass it up
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euphoricism
Old 09-20-2005, 01:41 AM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
if my CR on the flop and turn followup don't work, i'm not putting more money in
This doesnt work because, well, you didn't C/R him. I might agree with a flop c/r and turn followup. You'd find out quick if he's got you
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Old 09-20-2005, 03:28 AM #20 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by euphoricism
Quote:
if my CR on the flop and turn followup don't work, i'm not putting more money in
This doesnt work because, well, you didn't C/R him. I might agree with a flop c/r and turn followup. You'd find out quick if he's got you
i didn't CR him because it wasn't heads up. i could possibly fold one, but next to no chance of bluffing them both out of the pot.
 
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Old 09-20-2005, 05:44 PM #21 (permalink)  
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anyways, for the curious

turn, heart:
hero checks, bet, call, hero calls

river, heart:
hero checks, bet, call, hero raises, call, fold
 
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