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What do you do on this turn?

  
 
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Trikflow77
Old 03-10-2005, 08:12 PM     Post subject: What do you do on this turn? #1 (permalink)  
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Villlian (mp3) is 45/5/1.4 after about 200 hands. He is passive preflop, bets and raises draws.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, 9.
2 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 3 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (3.50 SB) J, 3, 3 (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls, MP3 raises, Hero calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: (4.25 BB) A (2 players)
Hero?????
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RiverMonkey
Old 03-10-2005, 09:38 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Just to confirm, "Villlian (mp3) is 45/5/1.4" means ......

VP$IP = 45%
PFR% = 5%
1.4 ...... is that mp3's average agression factor (with or w/o pre-flop included?)?

Possibilities:
1) MP3 was making a free-card play on the flop with his raise and had a diamond flush draw. You said that he bets and raises draws.

2) JX with X>9

3) JX with X<9

4) With a VP$IP of 45%, you can't rule out J3s

5) Pocket 3s

6) You said he's passive pre-flop, so you can't rule out JJ or another high'ish pocket pair.

7) K3s or A3s



4) and 5) are unlikely.

6) is possible, but difficult to assign a likelihood without more info

1) sounds consistent with your read.

2) is a good possibility

3) is unlikely, but you never know.

7) is possible given the 45% VP$IP

The pot is quite small, and you are heads-up on the turn. If you aren't prepared to fold, then the best play IMHO, given all the above possibilities, is to check-call em' down. I don't like a lead bet-out here.
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Room
Old 03-10-2005, 09:49 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Room
Is this guy going to call you down consistently? or have you seen him lay down at times? if you believe he is capable of a laydown, check raise the turn. you've actually set it up quite nicely. smooth call his flop raise, then check raise the turn to draw a bigger bet. with this play i am suggesting that you are representing a 3. however, its a semibluff of sorts in that you have middle pair (TP on the flop). if he 3 bets, probably a safe laydown. if he just calls, im 50-50 on leading the river to continue the bluff or just check calling.
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ChezJ
Old 03-10-2005, 09:53 PM #4 (permalink)  
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ChezJ is an unknown quantity at this point
 if he does have JX, his side card has just been counterfeited and you are now tied. but he may not realize this, so checkraise him.

ChezJ
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Trikflow77
Old 03-10-2005, 10:20 PM #5 (permalink)  
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I want to see what fnord says before i chime in with what I did.
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Fnord
Old 03-11-2005, 12:11 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Fold or 3-bet the flop.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Trikflow77
Old 03-11-2005, 12:32 AM #7 (permalink)  
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I thought I should have three bet hit, but didnt. So three bet....lead turn right?

I lead the turn and river, he called both with 88. If he popped it on the turn or river its an easy fold.

Do you three bet this hand because of the drawing board? Or because it makes it easier to play later streets.

If you three bet he caps you call, do not inprove on 4th you check fold.

If I call the bet, lead the turn and fold to a raise I lose the same amount.

The three bet just reveals his hand strenght earlier in the hand, which I guess is a good thing.

Either way you have to lead the turn, cant give him a free card if that was his intentions.


On this board if he has an over pair you have two outs to improve, that doesnt factor into your play on this hand?
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Fnord
Old 03-11-2005, 12:36 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Given the pot size you should seriously consider folding.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Trikflow77
Old 03-11-2005, 12:39 AM #9 (permalink)  
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i did consider, but it is player dependent, i had played 200+ hands with the guy.
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Fnord
Old 03-11-2005, 12:40 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Lead the turn and fold to a raise.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Trikflow77
Old 03-11-2005, 12:45 AM #11 (permalink)  
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agreed, I think you have to lead the turn. But I was prepared to fold to a raise.
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