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Weak lead

  
 
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Fnord
Old 03-01-2005, 08:23 AM     Post subject: Weak lead #1 (permalink)  
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Button is tight/passive 12/3 pre-flop split
UTG+1 is a horrible calling station, takes anything to the river.

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Preflop: Fnord is MP2 with 6, 7.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, Fnord calls, 2 folds, Button raises, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, Fnord calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 7, 5, A (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Fnord bets...
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Trikflow77
Old 03-01-2005, 08:46 AM #2 (permalink)  
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I like it. The button being a tight passive, you could move him of his hand if he has jj or 1010. If he raises you its an easy dump on the turn if unimproved. You are going to have odds to call the flop if you checked anyway, so I dont see leading here being too weak. Plus if he does raise it might get it hu. I think leading the flop here makes this hand much easier to play.


On another note, was the preflop call just to mix it up a little or do you rotinely make this call?
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Fnord
Old 03-01-2005, 08:48 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trikflow77
On another note, was the preflop call just to mix it up a little or do you rotinely make this call?
Not routine, maybe even -EV. UTG+1 was such a horrible player I opened up a bit to get a chance to play a pot against him with position.
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zenbitz
Old 03-01-2005, 05:44 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Tight/passive 12/3 meaning 12% v$IP, 3% PFR?

3% PFR is super low.... but maybe he's been getting crappy cards. I can see betting out here, but I would suspect you are going to get called down with like AJ or AQ.

Just going to think out loud here.

He is probably raising with TTs or better, AJ or better. That's about 4% of hands.

Of those 108 holdings (including all suits), he's probably only going to fold TT/JJ He'll probably call QQ/AJ/AQ and raise AK/KK/AA.

So, about 20-25% of the time (depending on how passive he is), he'll fold,
about 40% of the time he'll raise, and the rest he calls.

You are getting 8:1 if he folds, so I think this is a good move, unless UTG+1 catches. And I just did the math on the raise, and you will have odds to catch a set or weak two pair so what the hell.

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elipsesjeff
Old 03-02-2005, 03:57 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 Anything other than the Ace on the board, in my opinion, this is a good play.

The possibility of him raising with an ace is huge, especially when a rock (i consider 12/3 rock status) raises preflop. I can see the case for betting here, but check calling would be a much better way to play if you think you're opponent doesnt have an Ace. Why not check/call, check/call, river bet here if you think you're opponent missed?

I think the likelyhood of him folding is slim to none with your bet (its got to be less than 10%), and an even greater likelyhood of him raising (around 50%). What do you do if he just calls? Lead the turn again with nothing but middle pair? That has to be negative expectation as well, with a large pocket pair he's still calling down this hand HU. Then that brings UTG+1 in the situation, what does he limp with in EP? What are the chances that he has an Ace and will call down too? I could see a stronger case if it were HU or if you are first to act.

I also think your limp with 67s here is -ev, but it is sound reasoning to call here in an attempt to encourage limpers. Sometimes you get lucky and they call, other times they dont.


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Fnord
Old 03-02-2005, 09:30 PM #6 (permalink)  
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The Button hesitated and folded.

UTG+1 had T5o and caught his ten on the river.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Zinnsoldaten
Old 03-03-2005, 01:24 AM #7 (permalink)  
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I find this line works best w/ an ace on the board. Suxx to lose it like that when you succeed though

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