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Weak Flop and Turn?

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ihategnomes

03-01-2005, 06:10 AM Post subject: Weak Flop and Turn?

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: Louisiana

Posts: 1,225

CO = Loose and Passive

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A

, A

.
UTG calls, Hero raises, MP1 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls.

Flop: (11 SB) K

, J

, 5

(5 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, MP1 folds, CO 3-bets, SB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (11.50 BB) 4

(4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, CO raises, SB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: (19.50 BB) T

(4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, CO bets, SB folds, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 22.50 BB

Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
<Bbickes> i still wanna know if the thing in your avatar is a real chick or not
<Bbickes> or am i e-crushing a dude

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Fnord

03-01-2005, 06:33 AM

#2 (permalink)

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Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

I cap this flop for value.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

|~|ypermegachi

03-01-2005, 02:26 PM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

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Location: emo-kid

Posts: 3,580

against a 3bet from a loose passive i think you played the hand just fine.

ihategnomes

03-01-2005, 06:18 PM

#4 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: Louisiana

Posts: 1,225

CO = J5o

Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
<Bbickes> i still wanna know if the thing in your avatar is a real chick or not
<Bbickes> or am i e-crushing a dude

Fnord

03-01-2005, 08:51 PM

#5 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by hypermegachi

against a 3bet from a loose passive i think you played the hand just fine.

But with so many other players in the hand, he's getting too much value on his money without the risk of a better hand re-raising.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

|~|ypermegachi

03-01-2005, 09:36 PM

#6 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Quote:

Originally Posted by hypermegachi

against a 3bet from a loose passive i think you played the hand just fine.

But with so many other players in the hand, he's getting too much value on his money without the risk of a better hand re-raising.

but for this particular hand i think you are way behind to make capping profitable. first off, UTG bets into hero, probably because he hit the king. hero raises, saying he can beat that. now a loose passive 3bets, stating he can beat an overpair.

but i guess the flop cap would be good in scaring him into thinkin you got kings.

Trikflow77

03-01-2005, 10:03 PM

#7 (permalink)

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he still has lots of outs vs. a two pair hand though

Fnord

03-01-2005, 10:12 PM

#8 (permalink)

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I'm running the equity numbers right now...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Trikflow77

03-01-2005, 10:28 PM

#9 (permalink)

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im glad you do it, because I hate setting those sims up

Fnord

03-01-2005, 10:40 PM

#10 (permalink)

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Cap it baby!

4,695,997,320 games 1511.704 secs 3,106,426 games/sec

Board: Kd Jc 5s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 30.4766 % [ 00.30 00.00 ] { AsAd }
Hand 2: 46.3803 % [ 00.46 00.01 ] { KK, JJ, 55, AKs, KQs-KJs, K5s, J5s, AKo, KQo-KJo, K5o, J5o }
Hand 3: 16.3691 % [ 00.16 00.01 ] { KK, JJ, 55, AKs, KQs-K2s, QJs, JTs-J2s, AKo, KQo-K8o, QJo, JTo-J8o }
Hand 4: 06.7740 % [ 00.07 00.00 ] { random }

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

|~|ypermegachi

03-02-2005, 12:18 AM

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

you seem to be missing QTo and QTs, very likely candidates for one of the other 2 players.

having the open ended straight draw in there decreases hero's equity down to under 15%

Fnord

03-02-2005, 12:23 AM

#12 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by hypermegachi

having the open ended straight draw in there decreases hero's equity down to under 15%

I seriously doubt it. UTG might have bet a gutshot, but it's a stretch and certainly adding them to his range wouldn't have that much of an effect on his equity. I highly doubt a gutshot 3-bets and I just can't put the SB on any hand.

I'm re-running the numbers with a broader range for UTG anyway...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Fnord

03-02-2005, 01:17 AM

#13 (permalink)

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Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,333

5,962,183,920 games 1901.953 secs 3,134,769 games/sec

Board: Kd Jc 5s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 29.6983 % [ 00.29 00.00 ] { AsAd }
Hand 2: 46.7872 % [ 00.46 00.01 ] { KK, JJ, 55, AKs, KQs-KJs, K5s, J5s, AKo, KQo-KJo, K5o, J5o }
Hand 3: 16.7613 % [ 00.16 00.01 ] { KK, JJ, 55, AKs-AQs, ATs, KQs-K2s, QJs-QTs, JTs-J2s, AKo-AQo, ATo, KQo-K8o, JTo-J5o }
Hand 4: 06.7532 % [ 00.07 00.00 ] { random }

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

|~|ypermegachi

03-02-2005, 01:22 AM

#14 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

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Location: emo-kid

Posts: 3,580

hmmm interesting.

for my simulation i just had one player had only QTs or QTo....i guess broadening their range affects the EV quite a bit.

ihategnomes

03-02-2005, 05:40 AM

#15 (permalink)

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Thank you very much for the statistical analysis on that one and everyone else that replied!

Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
<Bbickes> i still wanna know if the thing in your avatar is a real chick or not
<Bbickes> or am i e-crushing a dude

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