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Phyl
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07-24-2005, 11:23 PM
Post subject: Weak flop play?
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 396
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No specific reads on any of the players but imagine a typical Party 2/4 table.
Two players limp to me on the button with   , I raise, the BB calls as do the two limpers.
Flop:    Pot: 8.5SB
Checked to the 2nd limper who bets, I fold.
Would you fold this flop? If not what would you do?
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TylerK
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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It's close. I don't fault you for a fold, but I would probably peel one. At least 4 of your outs are almost definitely good, and the other 2 might be. If you just call and get some overcalls behind you, you might have some implied odds from the "call to the river with any ace" crowd.
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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I think the fold is fine given the texture of the flop ... 2 of your 6 outs make a flush possible, so you are looking at a hand worth a little under 5 outs once you take into acount the possibility of a made hand already out there.
Change your Ace to the Ace of spades, and I would probably raise. On the turn, you can run a bluff if a blank falls and you are checked to. The flop raiser needs to be a player who can fold tho.
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Demiparadigm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Party 6 max
Posts: 1,602
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Why are you so sure that his overcard outs are good? The bettor could easily have a set, 2 pair or a straight. This does not make a hand worth about 5 outs. It makes a hand worth about 2 or 3. easy fold. If you have the Ace of spades, then call, but not worth a raise.
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To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
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TylerK
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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I'm not sure, but Im not sure his spade outs aren't good either. I'm not running away just because someone bets a 9-high flop, they have K9 as often as they have a real hand.
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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ChezJ
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Washington, D.C.
Posts: 1,456
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i'm not in the habit of raise-folding on a low flop, especially with no reads. the pot is large. put the guy on TP and pay him off if he flopped the str8.
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RiverMonkey
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Flush
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 446
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Good fold!! The pot is not small, but its not huge either.
In these situations, without any backdoor draws that strengthen your over-cards, I think you can peel one off if and only if you cl0se the betting. Even then, let's recognize that the call would be marginal. If there's even a moderate risk that you'll have to pay more than one sb to peel one off then even that marginal call to see the turn quickly turns into a bad one.
Also, let's not ignore the risk of reverse domination. You could easily be up against AXs where x = 9, 6 or 5 (on a loose table, even AX unsuited is a possible holding). Also, you could hit your jack on the turn, but still lose to an over card falling on the river.
That board isn't exactly rainbow and ragged. Overcard draws are obviously weakened by coordinated boards. This board has str8 and flush potential.
Lastly, you are in a 4-way pot here. The more multi-way the pot is the more you should lean towards a fold with you overcard draw when you have no backdoors.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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No bloody way I fold unless I limped pre-flop.
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TylerK
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
No bloody way I fold unless I limped pre-flop.
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Do you raise, trying to protect your fairly weak draw and retake the lead, or call hoping to see a cheap turn?
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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RiverMonkey
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Flush
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 446
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
No bloody way I fold unless I limped pre-flop.
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You are getting 9.5:1 to see the turn, but this is a marginal hand with that board. There are many cards that can come by the river that beat you even if you spike your pair.
How many outs would you estimate you have ?
What if you end up having to pay two small bets to see the turn?
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