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Weak draw hand

  
 
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arborman
Old 08-28-2007, 07:07 PM     Post subject: Weak draw hand #1 (permalink)  
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arborman
UTG is reasonably smart but tight and passive. MP3 is a mystery, CO is new to the table and just posted a BB, SB is an idiot (on my 'buddy list' (about 50% preflop, donks all the time with air). He just joined this table - usually I try to have position on him.

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, 9.
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Fairly reasonable call, IMO. A bit weak for a raise, especially given SBs donkish tendencies. UTG has been seen to limp QQ and KQs in the past. If I hit I want lots of people in, if I miss I'm out on the flop.

Flop: (6 SB) J, 6, 9 (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, MP3 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, SB folds, BB folds.

I have middle pair and a backdoor weak straight draw. I put UTG on something like KJ or at worst JT (which weakens my straight draw). CO is a mystery still, but might have caught a piece of it, or maybe a gutshot.

So I figure 5 outs for my 8 and 9, maybe .5 for my puny straight draw. 5.5 outs is just under 8:1 for a call - so a marginal call to see what comes on the turn.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 8 (3 players)
UTG bets, CO calls, Hero raises, UTG calls, CO calls.

Ding! 2 pair. Middle pairs, but I'm thinking about 60% chance I'm ahead, and worst case I buy a free showdown. I doubt UTG improved - I honestly don't see him limping with JT out of position, and definitely not J9. CO might be ahead, but he's pretty passive if so. One or both of them might have hearts or diamonds.

River: (10.50 BB) 9 (3 players)
UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, CO folds.
Ding Ding ding - rivered my boat. I think UTG saw it coming but couldn't bring himself to fold with the pot size, and CO was probably chasing a gutshot.
Final Pot: 12.50 BB

My questions:

1. Should I have raised preflop? It's a fairly speculative hand, but there were 2 Big Blinds in there with little or nothing, and UTG is pretty easy to read. The wildcard was SB, because he likes to reraise any button raise preflop, and it just didn't seem worth it.

2. Flop call good? Pot odds said OK (just), but I could easily have been drawing dead or dominated. The pot seemed big enough to peel a card though.

3. Turn raise good? I think so, just for the free showdown at the very least. The fact I wasn't 3 bet by UTG suggested TPTK or a draw (or two draws). CO was probably chasing a draw, which made me want to push him out (best) or make him pay (OK).

River was obvious.
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TylerK
Old 08-28-2007, 08:45 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I can't really argue with anything here.

1. I'm limping here pretty much every time.

2. I'd raise the flop against some players, but not against your read on UTG. The peel is maybe a little thin. I wouldn't count the 8 and 9 of diamonds as full outs. Still, I probably peel here. Is there some small chance your hand is best? Or is UTG no way never betting less than TP here?

3. Standard.
TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
 
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arborman
Old 08-28-2007, 09:00 PM #3 (permalink)  
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arborman
My read on UTG was that he wouldn't bet out without TPGK. I was definitely behind on the flop. Good point about 89 of diamonds - either of them could have got me in trouble on the turn. Call them half outs, which would make it about 9.2:1 for a peel - maybe a marginally bad call, though implied odds might help a bit.

That said, CO (who I think had diamonds, or was just calling with air) might have perked up in time for me to get out of it if one of the diamonds hit.
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DrivingDog
Old 08-30-2007, 09:23 AM     Post subject: Re: Weak draw hand #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arborman
My questions:

1. Should I have raised preflop? It's a fairly speculative hand, but there were 2 Big Blinds in there with little or nothing, and UTG is pretty easy to read. The wildcard was SB, because he likes to reraise any button raise preflop, and it just didn't seem worth it.
You pretty much answered your own question here. Even if the SB wasn't a reraising machine,

1) you've got a speculative hand which is unlikely to win by spiking a pair, hence you want multiway action for when you hit two pair or better.

2) your hand has much less fold equity as this pot is likely to be three-way or more against what are probably fairly loose opponents who tend not to fold easily.

3) with 9 high you'll rarely win a showdown unimproved against one opponent never mind two or more. So if you miss your hand and c-bet the flop and turn and they both call, you're screwed.

4) just because people are in the blinds doesn't mean they can't be dealt a good hand. If one of them 3bets with TT+ you are paying a lot to see a flop with not much chance of winning. Even if they only have two overcards to your 98 it's a losing proposition. If you just limp and they raise then it's not so bad because the other limpers will stay in and you'll know right away on the flop whether it's worth putting any more bets in or not.

The only time i'd consider raising even a single limper with 98s is if the blinds are both tight and the limper is capable of folding the flop or turn if they don't improve. If you can find a table like that you should stay there all night.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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