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a very good bankroll management article

  
 
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pokerlearner
Old 11-08-2005, 09:00 PM     Post subject: a very good bankroll management article #1 (permalink)  
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i was at my local B&M casino last night and saw the latest CARD PLAYER magazine (the one which has Allen Cunningham in cover).

it has a very nice article on bankroll management. If you get the chance to read it please do so.

I dont remember all of it but the author proved using some logic, maths etc that the bankroll requirement of 300 BB is mostly for live games. For internet games he argued that a player needs MORE than 300 bb.

Since i dont want to misquote, you would be better off reading the article.

enjoy
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Old 11-08-2005, 09:02 PM     Post subject: Re: a very good bankroll management article #2 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerlearner
i was at my local B&M casino last night and saw the latest CARD PLAYER magazine (the one which has Allen Cunningham in cover).

it has a very nice article on bankroll management. If you get the chance to read it please do so.

I dont remember all of it but the author proved using some logic, maths etc that the bankroll requirement of 300 BB is mostly for live games. For internet games he argued that a player needs MORE than 300 bb.

Since i dont want to misquote, you would be better off reading the article.

enjoy
You got an author of this article... it's probably online and we can give a link to it here...

Edit: I think the link below is it
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_maga...080&m_id=65576
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Demiparadigm
Old 11-08-2005, 09:12 PM #3 (permalink)  
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It isn't online yet. It should be next week I think.
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pokerlearner
Old 11-08-2005, 09:51 PM #4 (permalink)  
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i will take a piece of paper and write the name of the author, article name and the issue date. maybe tomorrow i will post it (if i remember while i am there...). i go there EVERY night... so definitely will post within 2-3 days if i forget tonight..LOL
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Demiparadigm
Old 11-11-2005, 09:28 AM #5 (permalink)  
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http://cardplayer.com/poker_magazine...080&m_id=65576

I really don't have much nice to say about this article. I feel as though Roy Cooke has no real comrehension of either bankroll requirements or internet play.
That being said, his advice is not bad. His reasoning is simply horribly flawed.
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Old 11-11-2005, 11:17 AM #6 (permalink)  
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No human can play two games as effectively as one.
BULLSHIT. I play two tables and I'm bored out of my mind so I read FTR. I pay NO extra attention than I need to when playing one table. I read FTR longer.

Also, he says a wild player might need 50% larger BR than a solid player. Again, WRONG. It's a barely noticable difference. Remember, we're talking about winning players. So the difference in hands seen should be maybe 15% between a solid player and an aggressive player. More than 30% VPIP just cannot be profitable in a full game. You would expect a tight player to have at least 15% VPIP and 10% PFR. So, OK, give the aggro 15% higher BR reqs, NOT 50%. You just can't get your variance that much higher...

Add the fact that good aggro players like Fnord have amazing win rates...
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ihategnomes
Old 11-11-2005, 04:48 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
BULLSHIT. I play two tables and I'm bored out of my mind so I read FTR. I pay NO extra attention than I need to when playing one table. I read FTR longer.
So you never use reads? I honestly believe the cut off line is more like 3-4 tables. Most people however probably play worse when playing less tables. Its the B&M syndrome and they start to play hands out of boredom.

Quote:
Also, he says a wild player might need 50% larger BR than a solid player. Again, WRONG.
I believe a maniac would need a bigger bankroll, they will swing harder.
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pokerlearner
Old 11-11-2005, 06:58 PM #8 (permalink)  
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yep thats the article. Thanks Demi for linking it. I am so lazy.

Dont you think though that your edge is higher against live players than online players because of few reads. But then again, you cant use poker tracker live but online you have a good statistical analysis on opponents plays
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Demiparadigm
Old 11-11-2005, 09:39 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerlearner
yep thats the article. Thanks Demi for linking it. I am so lazy.

Dont you think though that your edge is higher against live players than online players because of few reads. But then again, you cant use poker tracker live but online you have a good statistical analysis on opponents plays
My edge is higher at 20/40 B&M than 5/10 online, because B&M players suck. Not because of reads.
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Demiparadigm
Old 11-11-2005, 09:42 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
No human can play two games as effectively as one.
BULLSHIT. I play two tables and I'm bored out of my mind so I read FTR. I pay NO extra attention than I need to when playing one table. I read FTR longer.

Also, he says a wild player might need 50% larger BR than a solid player. Again, WRONG. It's a barely noticable difference. Remember, we're talking about winning players. So the difference in hands seen should be maybe 15% between a solid player and an aggressive player. More than 30% VPIP just cannot be profitable in a full game. You would expect a tight player to have at least 15% VPIP and 10% PFR. So, OK, give the aggro 15% higher BR reqs, NOT 50%. You just can't get your variance that much higher...

Add the fact that good aggro players like Fnord have amazing win rates...
Please read my BR management post. Your reasoning is also horribly flawed.
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=22364

An agressive player will have a standard deviation of about 20BB/100, a very tight player will have a standard deviation of about 15BB/100.
(assuming both are good, winning players)
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elipsesjeff
Old 11-11-2005, 10:05 PM #11 (permalink)  
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IOPQ isn't that far off. You dont need a 50% larger BR to be a laggy player, but you might if you play in laggy games. Both of which will increase your variance, but not so much as to require a 50 % increase.

I'm pretty much advocating a 500 BB bankroll for limits upwards and including 3/6 6 max. Maybe not in your poker account, but at least have it available (because sometimes have $20k in your poker account not collecting at least some interest is retarded).

Quote:
An agressive player will have a standard deviation of about 20BB/100, a very tight player will have a standard deviation of about 15BB/100.
(assuming both are good, winning players)
You have your classifications wrong here. You are comparing aggressive and tight when you should only be comparing aggressive/passive or tight/loose or opposing combinations of the like. And, when you assume both are good, winning players, theres really only 1-2 types they can be.


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Demiparadigm
Old 11-11-2005, 11:58 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
IOPQ isn't that far off. You dont need a 50% larger BR to be a laggy player, but you might if you play in laggy games. Both of which will increase your variance, but not so much as to require a 50 % increase.
Again, just like Roy Cooke, his points are valid, but his math and his reasoning are wrong.
Bankroll requirements are a function of winrate and standard deviation, not the %hands played. Playing more hands will increase your standard deviation, but there is no direct correlation between hands played and bankroll requirements.
Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
I'm pretty much advocating a 500 BB bankroll for limits upwards and including 3/6 6 max. Maybe not in your poker account, but at least have it available (because sometimes have $20k in your poker account not collecting at least some interest is retarded).
Why are you advocating this? I went through a great deal of trouble explaining the considerations you need to make when considering your bankroll. I agree that 500BBs is a good number, but it bothers me when people throw out numbers with little justification. Bankroll is a very personalized requirement, based on each individuals play.
Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
An agressive player will have a standard deviation of about 20BB/100, a very tight player will have a standard deviation of about 15BB/100.
(assuming both are good, winning players)
You have your classifications wrong here. You are comparing aggressive and tight when you should only be comparing aggressive/passive or tight/loose or opposing combinations of the like. And, when you assume both are good, winning players, theres really only 1-2 types they can be.
I was continuing the classifications used in iopq's post.
He used "solid" and "agressive" which are the same classifications used by Harrington and Brunson.
I agree that splitting players into loose/tight and passive/agressive is more correct, but we are actually only talking about one type of player here.
The only way to be a winning player at limit holdem is to play tight-agressive. So when I say "tight" I am referring to the 15/5 players and when I say "agressive" I am referring to the 20/10 players.
When I talk about my "LAgg" play, I am playing about 25/12 in a full game. It is simply not profitable to play more hands than this. In a small stakes NL game, I can raise 30% of my hands, and make a long term profit. This is simply not possible in limit.
Yes, I have heard the stories of long term winners who play more than 30% of their hands. Why do these stories exist? because it is so rare as to be amazing.

Finally, not directed at anyone in particular, I tried very hard to take the opinions and "feelings" out of the art of bankroll management by showing the underlying math and considerations that should be made. I spent a lot of time trying to explain it, It would be nice if some people took a little bit of time to understand it.
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thenonsequitur
Old 11-12-2005, 12:07 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
I spent a lot of time trying to explain it, It would be nice if some people took a little bit of time to understand it.
In case you think nobody is reading your BR management thread, you're wrong. I, for one, spent several hours going through this thread, and I believe it is a valuable resource. I appreciate the effort you put into it.

I would advocate it being stickied.
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elipsesjeff
Old 11-12-2005, 03:39 AM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
Again, just like Roy Cooke, his points are valid, but his math and his reasoning are wrong.
Bankroll requirements are a function of winrate and standard deviation, not the %hands played. Playing more hands will increase your standard deviation, but there is no direct correlation between hands played and bankroll requirements.
You see, your reasoning is wrong here. You can't control either your winrate or your standard deviation or what hands you get, but you can control how you play each hand. You say hands played increases your SD and SD will effect your BR, but hands played doesnt directly correlate BR. Maybe it depends on what your definition of Direct is, but this is pretty close. Hands played and the aggression factors are MAJOR requirements for how large a bankroll should be, and, you are able to control both of these factors. If you aren't very aggressive then your swings will be low when you lose and low when you win. Thus, tight-passive players would need less a bankroll to play at a level because they are less likely to go on 75+ BB downswings when compared to loose-aggressive players.

Quote:
Why are you advocating this? I went through a great deal of trouble explaining the considerations you need to make when considering your bankroll. I agree that 500BBs is a good number, but it bothers me when people throw out numbers with little justification. Bankroll is a very personalized requirement, based on each individuals play.
I don't have to use math in this decision, nor did I use any in my assumption. Frankly, its not worth my time because most people know what limit is outside their bankroll, and, if they dont, then they shouldn't be playing at the level they are at anyway. I take no special notice in knowing I'm going to need a 467 BB bankroll when 1) the max that I play at one time is 200 BB (some people its only 100) and the largest swings I'll give myself at any one setting is usually 75 BB. However, having exactly a 467 BB bankroll (or other random number) doesn't mean I should move up because I have 300 BB of the next level.

Quote:
The only way to be a winning player at limit holdem is to play tight-agressive.
That is incorrect. Tight/passive players can be winning players as well, they just dont win THE MOST. Thus, to win the most, tight-aggressive play is considered the best.

Quote:
Yes, I have heard the stories of long term winners who play more than 30% of their hands.
Also incorrect. In LHE, anyone who plays more than 30% of their hands is a guaranteed loser (in a full ring table), they may just not know it yet. The DERB (Doesn't ever run bad) thread on 2+2 are based on a guy that plays in between 25 and 30 VPIP.


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Demiparadigm
Old 11-12-2005, 04:18 AM #15 (permalink)  
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When I said that Bankroll does not directly correlate to the number of hands played I was referring to this comment:
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
You would expect a tight player to have at least 15% VPIP and 10% PFR. So, OK, give the aggro 15% higher BR reqs, NOT 50%.
Playing 15% more hands does not mean a 15% increase in bankroll. It could easily mean a 50% increase in bankroll requirements, due to the increased variance.

I also disagree that tight passive players beat the game for anything significant. If you don't bet or raise, you don't win. unless you are referring to the 15/5/1.5 players as "tight passive"

I think it is important for people to know what to consider for their bankroll. We consistently see posts in the Strategy forum about "What limit should I play with $500?"

Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Frankly, its not worth my time because most people know what limit is outside their bankroll, and, if they dont, then they shouldn't be playing at the level they are at anyway.
I don't think this is something that most people "know" intuitively. Saying that if they don't know it, they shouldn't be playing where they are at, while probably true, doesn't help the players who don't have the same experience and skills that you possess.

Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
In LHE, anyone who plays more than 30% of their hands is a guaranteed loser (in a full ring table), they may just not know it yet.
Perhaps instead of "amazing" I should have said unbelievable.
To say that I am "incorrect," when 2 sentences earleir I said "It is simply not profitable to play more hands than [25%]" Seems like you are just searching for things to disagree with.

I care a lot about making sure people understand WHY they need to maintain proper bankroll management. Just saying "You should have 500BB to play in that game" is not acceptable for me. The few players who "know what limit is outside their bankroll" are not the ones that I am trying to help. Unfortunately, I believe that these players are a small minority in the poker world.

Finally, I want people to understand that Banroll Management represents a MINIMUM bound for what you should maintain. I in no way am implying that if you have 300BBs for the next level you MUST move up. I want people to understand how bankroll requirements relate to risk of ruin, and that maintaining an inadequate bankroll actually decreases you expected value.

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Nehmer
Old 11-12-2005, 06:07 AM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
Yes, I have heard the stories of long term winners who play more than 30% of their hands.
Also incorrect. In LHE, anyone who plays more than 30% of their hands is a guaranteed loser (in a full ring table), they may just not know it yet. The DERB (Doesn't ever run bad) thread on 2+2 are based on a guy that plays in between 25 and 30 VPIP.
I disagree with you strongly here. I know I could beat the .5/1, 1/2, and probably 2/4, 3/6 tables on party running a VPIP of 30+. Hell, I might even be able to beat the .5/1 and 1/2 tables for more than I could with a VPIP of 15-20. If you can definately outplay your opponents postflop, there is nothing at all wrong with adding in some extra hands preflop. At higher limits like the 15/30-50/100 online games, you will probably have a VERY hard time finding a table where you could outplay everybody that much postflop(no matter how good of a player you are), but if you made sure to only play those limits at the very best of tables, I think it would definately be possible to be a long term winning player with a VPIP of 30+ in the long run. Even not at the best of tables, if you were good enough at figuring out how to take advantage of peoples views of you due to your Pokertracker stats looking bad with a high VPIP, you could probably beat the games pretty soundly.
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Old 11-12-2005, 03:50 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nehmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
Yes, I have heard the stories of long term winners who play more than 30% of their hands.
Also incorrect. In LHE, anyone who plays more than 30% of their hands is a guaranteed loser (in a full ring table), they may just not know it yet. The DERB (Doesn't ever run bad) thread on 2+2 are based on a guy that plays in between 25 and 30 VPIP.
I disagree with you strongly here. I know I could beat the .5/1, 1/2, and probably 2/4, 3/6 tables on party running a VPIP of 30+. Hell, I might even be able to beat the .5/1 and 1/2 tables for more than I could with a VPIP of 15-20. If you can definately outplay your opponents postflop, there is nothing at all wrong with adding in some extra hands preflop. At higher limits like the 15/30-50/100 online games, you will probably have a VERY hard time finding a table where you could outplay everybody that much postflop(no matter how good of a player you are), but if you made sure to only play those limits at the very best of tables, I think it would definately be possible to be a long term winning player with a VPIP of 30+ in the long run. Even not at the best of tables, if you were good enough at figuring out how to take advantage of peoples views of you due to your Pokertracker stats looking bad with a high VPIP, you could probably beat the games pretty soundly.
You have it backwards, you are more likely to win more with loose play at the higher levels because the playerspay more attention to you, and thus it will have more effect on your metagame. You give up TOO much preflop leakage playing 30% vpip than you could make up post flop. Every 5 percent you add to your vpip, you have to win 2.5 BB/100 MORE just to break even, if not more than that.


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Old 11-12-2005, 04:51 PM #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
You have it backwards, you are more likely to win more with loose play at the higher levels because the playerspay more attention to you, and thus it will have more effect on your metagame. You give up TOO much preflop leakage playing 30% vpip than you could make up post flop. Every 5 percent you add to your vpip, you have to win 2.5 BB/100 MORE just to break even, if not more than that.
You are more likely to win more with any style of play at the lower limits than higher limits because the players suck When I first got pokertracker, my preflop stats at .5/1 were about 27/5 and I was winning about 1.5 BB/100 for about 2 months worth of play. I am a much better postflop player now than I was back then, so I'm sure I could add another 3 percent to that VPIP now and have just as high a BB/100 or higher at .5/1(might be kinda an interesting expirement for me to try). Now if I tried playing like that at the 15/30 game, I'm sure I would lose my ass and fast. You can also get away with having a MUCH higher VPIP at the lower limits, because you are getting much better odds on all your hands. Limping 78s UTG at an average 5/10 or above game is going to lose you a ton of money in the long run, but at a .5/1 table where it is unlikely to be raised preflop and 6 other limpers are going to follow you, limping 78s UTG will be a long term winning move.
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Old 11-13-2005, 10:56 AM #19 (permalink)  
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Limping 78s UTG at an average 5/10 or above game is going to lose you a ton of money in the long run, but at a .5/1 table where it is unlikely to be raised preflop and 6 other limpers are going to follow you, limping 78s UTG will be a long term winning move.
87s has 15% expectation for winning at a full nine player table for 2 card starting hands; roughly 1 in 6.666... times. Or 5.67:1 odds. (so is T7s) UTG how can you be sure 6 (or more) will follow everytime? Is this a 'rule of thumb' for $0.5/$1 that 6 of 9 players ALLWAYS see the flop? Just did a quick check at PS under plys/flop: it ranged from 26% to 71% @ $.05/$1 in all tables listed. But in the full tables the range was 26% to 38%.

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Old 11-13-2005, 12:17 PM #20 (permalink)  
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Another thing that may need be taken into consideration from a magazine/internet site/B&M casino standpoint - PR.

There are a lot of bleeding heart/save the world liberals out there that may be putting pressure, behind the scenes, on these organizations visa vie the 'big bad' tobacco & firearms industry mindset. You know its the manufactures' fault some people are irresponsible; even stupid and/or malicious. (This thing has just gotten too popular to not have ambulance chasing lawyers and career politicians to not come on board eventually.)

So, along comes rhetoric that defies conventional wisdom in a veiled attempt at covering their ass (CYA is the basest of all conventional wisdoms)


But then, for people to bring more money is always a good idea if you own a casino... :P

Just a thought.
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Old 11-13-2005, 03:01 PM #21 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by astrodon
Quote:
Limping 78s UTG at an average 5/10 or above game is going to lose you a ton of money in the long run, but at a .5/1 table where it is unlikely to be raised preflop and 6 other limpers are going to follow you, limping 78s UTG will be a long term winning move.
87s has 15% expectation for winning at a full nine player table for 2 card starting hands; roughly 1 in 6.666... times. Or 5.67:1 odds. (so is T7s) UTG how can you be sure 6 (or more) will follow everytime? Is this a 'rule of thumb' for $0.5/$1 that 6 of 9 players ALLWAYS see the flop? Just did a quick check at PS under plys/flop: it ranged from 26% to 71% @ $.05/$1 in all tables listed. But in the full tables the range was 26% to 38%.

I definately didn't mean for that to be taken to mean you should be limping 78s UTG. Even at .5/1, you have to find an especially bad table for that to be effective. I was just making a point that if you find the absolute worst tables around, you can add a lot more hands to your playable range(especially if you can outplay them postflop) and be profitable
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Old 11-13-2005, 04:27 PM #22 (permalink)  
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You're right that with poor postflop play you are likely to win more at the lower limits with a high vpip than at higher limits. But, if you are a good post flop player then the metagame comes into effect where people start to play badly against you b/c of their reads. Example: DERB thread on 2+2.


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