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various questions on evaluating play based on PT results

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booradly07

08-17-2005, 10:08 PM Post subject: various questions on evaluating play based on PT results

#1 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Dec 2004

Posts: 120

Hi FTR,

I have a couple of questions but am sharing a little extra background...the general questions are in Bold.

I recently decided to get Poker Tracker after stubbornly losing and refusing to get the program and analyze my game that way for months. I also decided to get more serious and try and go 'back to basics', unlearn any bad habits and start trying to beat the game again from the ground up while tracking my play. In preperation for this I've also read ToP, SSH and WLLH over the past month or so and now I have a pretty solid grasp on Pre-flop play (thanks to SSH and Fnord's "why you suck" post) I've now got ~5000 hands in PT playing exclusively .50/1.00 on PP over the last 2 weeks.

How small would 5000 sample size be considered in terms of random variance that could occur at this level of play? I originally set out to build up a database of 1/4 million hands at .50/1.00 then re-evaluate, move up/down etc... from there since I could realistically expect to see my Pocket Pairs about 1000 times each with that many hands and see how they really play. I could expect to see my Big Suited Broadways around 350 times each and my Big Off-Suite Broadways around 2000 times etc, etc for suited connectors and so on...so everything could more or less play out 'as it should'. Would 1/4 million hands be approaching 'the long run' in terms of hands averaging out to their normal mathematical potential?

After 5000 hands I am -1.5BB/100 playing essential an agressive SSH style...

I fluctuated between +3BB/100 and +0BB/100 for most of this 5000 hands but in the past day I've felt I may have just had a really bad run of cards because I lost around 100BB over my last 1000 hands.

I am playing pretty much straight up SSH strategy. How much could one who is not a master but soundly applies the logic of SSH expect to succumb to variance every once in a while in terms of BB slippage before turning back around? How much could said same person expect to win in BB when variance swings back in the other direction and your hands hold up etc...?

How many hands would you wait to play before you decide to make any changes in your general play based on results gained from PT?

Could some of you experts share some of your - BB slides so I know somewhat wher a -100BB slides puts me at .50/1.00?

Is there any merit to moving up to 1/2 or 2/4 if I'm not beating the .50/1.00? I would be a positive player by far if this were a home game without rake but the rake has put me in the negatives at this point.

Alright thanks,

Brad

p.s. As soon as I get around to figuring it out and grabbing some good hands to review I will start posting some hand historys...

p.s.s. If someone could direct me to an excellent post on Poker Tracker and how best to evaluate all the numbers I would appreciate it...until then I am just scanning forums trying to pick it all up.

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TylerK

08-17-2005, 10:12 PM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Oct 2004

Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME

Posts: 1,791

I'm pretty sure I've lost over a span of 5000 hands before.

Post your stats all up in here, most of the numbers that people look at (VP$IP, PFR, etc) converge after a fairly small number of hands.

TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol

Fnord

08-17-2005, 10:28 PM

#3 (permalink)

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Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,333

Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

I've had a stretch of about 10k hands of break even poker at 3/6 once.

I use PT as a sanity check on overall stats to make sure I don't drift too far out of line. However, it's mostly useful as a hand look-up tool.

For example:
Reviewing all the hands I cold-called pre-flop.
...all my blind steals/defense
...Buttons raises behind limpers when I have a marginal hand.
...hands I limped pre-flop (this is usually a small number and until recently I could have folded these hands and not noticed)
...

Also getting a feel for how well I'm running on starting hands and if I'm at, above or below expectation on them. Was I card dead? Did I catch AA 4 times and go 1 for 4? Have I been getting hosed in my blinds? How many sets have I hit? Had hold up? Nothing scientific, but it can be reassuring after a bad run to see signs that clearly indidate you ran bad.

After every session (or the following day) I go through the hands I played and look for interesting ones, trends, etc. We're not just talking big losses or even big pots though. It's this relentless self-evaluation reguardless of results that's probably one of the big differences between me and the other guy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

booradly07

08-17-2005, 11:48 PM

#4 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Dec 2004

Posts: 120

Quote:

I'm pretty sure I've lost over a span of 5000 hands before.

Quote:

I've had a stretch of about 10k hands of break even poker at 3/6 once.

Sorry to hear but nice to know it happens to established players sometimes.

Quote:

Post your stats all up in here, most of the numbers that people look at (VP$IP, PFR, etc) converge after a fairly small number of hands.

When I get home tonight I'll get busy putting together my stats from PT for the first 5000 for people to critique. I know it isn't indicative of the long run but I was thinking it doesn't hurt to get some feedback now before I make it to the 1/4 million hands mark .

1/4 million seems like allot but after I thought about it...it isn't. But it stomps doors on 5000...

Quote:

Reviewing all the hands I cold-called pre-flop.
...all my blind steals/defense
...Buttons raises behind limpers when I have a marginal hand.
...hands I limped pre-flop (this is usually a small number and until recently I could have folded these hands and not noticed)
...

Although my sample size is not be large enough to start making changes based on my results I suspect I will find enough leaks right here in the things you are mentioning, Fnord, to AT LEAST make me into a break even player. And frankly, my first goal is to be able to say I am a break even player. Even if it takes me a 1/4 million hands to be able to say definatively that I can at least break even that is good news because I can always go up from there if I've established a true record of being able to beat the rake. This serves another more important alternate goal of mine which is long term patience. I used to (read as, as recently as a month ago) have the bad habit of chasing higher stakes, playing generally on tilt trying to get lucky and the like when I got hit by a 'bad beat' evening and it has been eating at me to get control over this first and foremost if I ever want to be a successful gambler. I'm hoping to stick it out at the low levels and overcome my problems so I can continue to play and get better instead of ending up in Gamblers Anonymous.

Anyway, one of the reasons I didn't feel lame about submitting this sort of post to begin with is that I did check my PT records and found that I really wasn't getting the true average expectation from my hands and thus I know for sure that i am running through at least a marginally bad run of cards.

I don't have the stats in front of me to prove it right now but for some rough examples:

I am only hitting a set on maybe 1/13 flops over the past 5000. Of those sets made over the past 1000 hands 50% were either beaten right away on the flop by straights or better or drawn out to straights/flushes while I only redrew to a FH around 5% of the time this happened. I have been dealt AK off-suite 2.5 times more than I should have in 5000 hands and it is a BIG loser for me considering the normal +EV associated with this premium preflop hand. I show losses in everything short of a set. So, I am probably way overplaying my speculative big hands that don't hit on the flop. Really if I had just laid down AKo on every flop that didn't hit me I would be on the winning side of my bankroll right now.

Seriously though, having said that, I still think it would be foolish to change too much at all after only 5000 hands. After all, I am down such a small amount after 5000 hands that I could easily be back in the green in one evening of decent cards. Perhaps I should gather some stats and start getting some feedback.

Brad (The Long Winded One)

booradly07

08-18-2005, 02:36 AM

#5 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Dec 2004

Posts: 120

Here are my statistics as of ~5000 hands tracked at .50/1 on PP
BB/100 -1.81
VP$IP 22.41
VP$IFSB 44.35
Folded SB to Steal 87.5
Folded BB to Steal 72.22
Att. to Steal Blinds 22.12
Won $ WSF % 30.53
Went to SD % 35.23
Won $ at SD % 45.81
PF Raise % 8.89

Total AF = 0.98 (PF=0.56, Flop=1.39, Turn=1.45, River=1.42)

Anything else i should be looking for?

Thanks,

Brad

|~|ypermegachi

08-18-2005, 03:02 AM

#6 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: emo-kid

Posts: 3,580

Quote:

Originally Posted by booradly07

Folded BB to Steal 72.22

way too high...

Quote:

Originally Posted by booradly07

Total AF = 0.98 (PF=0.56, Flop=1.39, Turn=1.45, River=1.42)

way too low...

booradly07

08-18-2005, 03:44 AM

#7 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Dec 2004

Posts: 120

Quote:

Originally Posted by hypermegachi

Quote:

Originally Posted by booradly07

Folded BB to Steal 72.22

way too high...

Quote:

Originally Posted by booradly07

Total AF = 0.98 (PF=0.56, Flop=1.39, Turn=1.45, River=1.42)

way too low...

Hi, thanks for the input. I wonder how to improve the BB #? Just call more with A high K high and play well on the flop?

For AF...I was thinking the PF number was pretty low but everything else seemed ok... do you concur? If so, how can I get that # up there? Is that simply a matter of raising more hands than I call?

Fnord

08-18-2005, 08:44 AM

#8 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,333

It's .5/1. If he's at a table worth playing at those stakes blind wars should be nearly a non-factor in his win rate. Heck, if he only defended with premiums it might not be too bad in the interest of moving onto hands where he has a huge edge.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

|~|ypermegachi

08-18-2005, 12:46 PM

#9 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: emo-kid

Posts: 3,580

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

...

true enough...people are probably not stealing at 0.5/1. ah well, it's some good practice once you move up to 1/2 where too much stealing occurs.

Quote:

Originally Posted by booradly07

...

anyways, your aggression is the single most important factor for you losing right now. it's not just a mattering betting/raising more than calling. it is FOLDING more also.

Fnord

08-18-2005, 01:14 PM

#10 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,333

1 more point. Don't include pre-flop when computing AF.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

booradly07

08-18-2005, 06:26 PM

#11 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Dec 2004

Posts: 120

Hi,

Quote:

anyways, your aggression is the single most important factor for you losing right now. it's not just a mattering betting/raising more than calling. it is FOLDING more also.

Hyper, would you mind explaining the idea behind why agression is the most important factor? What are the intented results of the agression? All I can figure is more betting will be either for value to fatten the pot when you think you have the best hand, for Pot Equity when you are drawing to the best hand in a multiway pot and Fold equity by throwing in a positional re-raise to destroy drawing odds, to get out weak hands that might beat you or currently be better than you, give you extra outs etc... Is that your line of thinking or is there something extra?

I honestly fear being too much more agressive on the flop/turn/river. I think I follow pretty close to Fnord's line of relentlessly value betting my good hands. I find myself getting caught being too agressive with what ends up the second best hand allot with TPTK or Two Pair OR not laying down a big drawing hand like AK when the board looks crappy only to be caught by random guys BB or cold call with J3o that caught a 3 on the flop and is damn well calling it down to the river.

When you say I should fold more also to rectify the agression numbers do you mean I should fold more hands preflop or should be folding more after the flop? If I were to interpret what you said I would think you meant to say that I should fold (or raise) more preflop instead of limping.

Right now I am trying to get in cheap with med-small pairs from any position and non-broadway suited aces from mid-late position. I'll throw in a raise with these hands in late positions to try and pick up the blinds if no one has come in to the pot yet. I don't really limop anything else except suited connectors with position and a multiway pot. I might limp in with KJo in a big pot or something like that.

Which brings up an important question...How many people would generally need to be in the pot before you would cold call with PP's or little suited broadway cards? Would you do this or would you just fold or is it possible to throw in a re-raise at this point? This is one of the toughest situations for me is figuring out when it is ok to cold call or what to do instead of cold calling with PP or drawing hands that might be marginal in a raised pot. It seems to be if there are three or four people already in the pot it is ok but with less than that it might be a bad investment.

Fnord, if I remove the preflop numbers my AF=1.42. Better but still not 'agressive' by comparison to others I've seen.

TylerK

08-18-2005, 06:53 PM

#12 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Oct 2004

Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME

Posts: 1,791

Quote:

Originally Posted by booradly07

I think I follow pretty close to Fnord's line of relentlessly value betting my good hands.

Hey that's my line

TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol

booradly07

08-18-2005, 08:06 PM

#13 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Dec 2004

Posts: 120

Quote:

Originally Posted by TylerK

Quote:

Originally Posted by booradly07

I think I follow pretty close to Fnord's line of relentlessly value betting my good hands.

Hey that's my line

We'll I should give credit to you and Fnord, much respect to both of you...and all the other folks that participate here. This is the best poker forum community, hands down.

|~|ypermegachi

08-18-2005, 11:37 PM

#14 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: emo-kid

Posts: 3,580

Quote:

Originally Posted by booradly07

...

it depends
...

...
...
fine i'll say something :P

actually you said it pretty well yourself why we must be aggressive. however, you should be happy that people with a pair of 3s are calling you down. these guys pay you off in the long run.

actually, you're probably using too much selective memory. thinking of all the times you lost with 2 pair, TPTK. well, go through PT and look at all the times you won.

get more aggressive, sacrifice some variance, and gain more expectation. anyways, at a full table, VPIP > 20 is too high. only the best players can do that. and you can save yourself a lot of money if you just assume that you suck. so aim for 16 VPIP. (really you're probably only forfeiting less than 0.25BB in your winrate)

so by that...fold more preflop. and also fold more postflop. you should have over 2 at the minimum for flop and turn. the river can be debated. a lot of TAGs have 3/3/2 stats.

as for cold calls? it depends on how bad your opponents are, your relative position, your actual position, and your cards. generally with a speculative hand under normal circumstances, you want at least 5 people seeing the flop (yourself included).

booradly07

08-18-2005, 11:53 PM

#15 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Dec 2004

Posts: 120

Nice reply Mega and much appreciated.

Quote:

actually, you're probably using too much selective memory. thinking of all the times you lost with 2 pair, TPTK. well, go through PT and look at all the times you won.

Actually I was thinking the same thing...my Pair and Two Pairs in PT is are both loosing categories with my limited sample size but I am not seeing the times that 2P improved to a Full Boat or the times my TPTK improved to top two pair, three of a kind etc etc...I need to go back and do the study work for this. Good point.

Quote:

you can save yourself a lot of money if you just assume that you suck

I also had this thought but I wasn't sure if that was a weak way of thinking about it. Perhaps I'll change it up a bit...

Thanks for clarifying about agression and general folding guidelines and stuff. I was confused as to how to take that and this will definately help me allot.

Coldcalling...I'll probably just start erring on the side of caution until my game improves and I start getting more familiar with the oppositions style of play.

Thanks,

Brad

booradly07

08-19-2005, 06:48 PM

#16 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Dec 2004

Posts: 120

So yeah, we know 5000 hands tracked doesn't mean allot.

I was at ~ +0BB/100 at 4000 hands. At 5000 hands I was at -1.81BB/100. Now, at 7200 hands I am at +1.68BB/100.

I hope I don't have to post an update in a week that says 10,000 hands -2BB/100. <cry>

Its really funny because you get depressed when you see something bad coming but you don't know that something even better is coming around the corner. Then in the span of 1 evening you've almost corrected all imbalances in your profit per 100 hands. Maybe once I've got 50-100 thousand hands tracked I'll feel allot better about variance.

But really I want to thank you guys allot for your responses. I know they helped allot. Especially hypers advice to play like I suck and not like I am an advanced player. THAT HELPED ALLOT! That combined with being UBER-AGRESSIVE. Probably the biggest thing though for my game last night was 'seeking out the people that suck worse than I do'.

I've usually just been sitting down in my fighting hole and playing cards and not moving tables. Last night I started 4 tables and played them all until I could feel which ones I had the advantage at then I dropped the losing tables and picked up replacements until I had 4 lucrative tables. As the night wore on and I started getting more tired I dropped off tables from least lucrative to most lucrative until I was down to 1 table and finally decided I was too tired to play good poker and then stopped.

I had a +165BB run last night. <pats self on back>

I figure I was definately getting more than my fair share, even playing with imbiciles but still...GOT'DAMN.

OK, next on the list is to get some interesting hand historys for you guys to tear apart.

Brad

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various questions on evaluating play based on PT results

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