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variance or is 8/7 suited better then 9/8 and 10/9 suited ?

  
 
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littleogre
Old 10-26-2007, 08:55 PM     Post subject: variance or is 8/7 suited better then 9/8 and 10/9 suited ? #1 (permalink)  

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 My sample size of each hand in pt is a around 100. I'm a small winner with 8/7 around .5 bb/100. On the other hand i'm bleeding money with the other 2 hands. I'm -.40 with 9/8 and -.53 with 10/9. I know part of it is likely less then optimum play on my part. I have the exact same rules for each hand. Only play from the button-3 off the button. When i say my sample size is around 100 that inclues useing the above criteria. So is 8/7 actually best atleast in multie way pots? If so why? My only guess is 9/8 and 10/9 may be makeing more idiot str8s.
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pokerfanatic
Old 10-26-2007, 09:15 PM #2 (permalink)  
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gen rule i use for playing FR is 3limpers or bettor to limp my 56-9T type hands (middle connected cards...)

i play 6m so i think my data would be a lot different from what you are looking for... however, i do have some FR hands i can look at, not a huge sample though... 966 hands sample of all connected off suited hands... 58 of 98o @ -0.05bb/hand, 17 in the blind... 77 87o hands +0.02bb/hand, 26 in blinds... and T9o is 87 hands 15 in blinds -0.07bb/hand... NOTE: these hands come from a combined data of 0.25/0.5 and 0.5/1

at 6m i'm showing a loss across 3 level 0.25/0.5, 0.5/1, 1/2 of all off suited connected hands below JTo... hmm maybe you just let me stumble into a leak of mine... even though i'm up a good chunk of change... might be something there...
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littleogre
Old 10-26-2007, 09:58 PM #3 (permalink)  

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 Ty for the post pkr but it doesn't solve my mystery.
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pokerfanatic
Old 10-26-2007, 10:01 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by littleogre
Ty for the post pkr but it doesn't solve my mystery.
ohh i was just saying i'm showing al oss as well just not as large as your's so you might just be playing them a little too thin...
“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

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KoRnholio
Old 10-27-2007, 12:14 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 Yeah it could be that you are going too far with hands like T9 that hit a pair and then lose to higher kickers. Especially since the higher your cards are, the more likely someone is playing that middle card with a higher sidecard.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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littleogre
Old 10-27-2007, 12:46 AM #6 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfanatic
Quote:
Originally Posted by littleogre
Ty for the post pkr but it doesn't solve my mystery.
ohh i was just saying i'm showing al oss as well just not as large as your's so you might just be playing them a little too thin...
Thats cool and i apreciate the help. Saw you at the table earlier but i've never been much for chat plus my cat claimed the kb
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pokerfanatic
Old 10-27-2007, 01:38 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by littleogre
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfanatic
Quote:
Originally Posted by littleogre
Ty for the post pkr but it doesn't solve my mystery.
ohh i was just saying i'm showing al oss as well just not as large as your's so you might just be playing them a little too thin...
Thats cool and i appreciate the help. Saw you at the table earlier but i've never been much for chat plus my cat claimed the kb
nah i was just joking around with you, that hand i said "add one more to the list" i had T9o and bricked my oesd...
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DrivingDog
Old 10-27-2007, 12:38 PM #8 (permalink)  
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These hands tend to have a lot of variance because they're suited - i.e., happening to win a few big pots with flushes or straights can make 87s seem more profitable than T9s if you did not get as lucky with the latter. There also is probably something to the idea that someone is more likely to have a T in their hand and you can lose to a bigger kicker.

i imagine you'd probably need close to 500 trials to get a good idea of how profitable a given suited hand is, but that' just a guess.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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littleogre
Old 10-27-2007, 12:50 PM #9 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
These hands tend to have a lot of variance because they're suited - i.e., happening to win a few big pots with flushes or straights can make 87s seem more profitable than T9s if you did not get as lucky with the latter. There also is probably something to the idea that someone is more likely to have a T in their hand and you can lose to a bigger kicker.

i imagine you'd probably need close to 500 trials to get a good idea of how profitable a given suited hand is, but that' just a guess.

holly molly guess i'll check back in when my db has like 1 mill hands in it.
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pokerfanatic
Old 10-27-2007, 01:00 PM #10 (permalink)  
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one way to do it is simply dadamine a bunch of hands and see how often on avg the hands win... i'm not sure how you might go about doing that (i mean looking at it in PT not datamining), but it's an idea...
“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

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DrivingDog
Old 10-27-2007, 03:50 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by littleogre
holly molly guess i'll check back in when my db has like 1 mill hands in it.
A shortcut would be to average the results for three or four similar hands to the hand you're interested in. So if you want to compare T9s to 87s, then you might have two groups like 1) T9s, 98s, JTs, J9s, T8s and 2) 87s, 76s, 98s, 97s, 86s. I have about 600 hands for each group out of the 45k hands i've played this month.

group 1 is +.08 BB/hand on average, group 2 is +.06 BB/hand on average. From this it appears T9s is about the same for me as 87s.

Advanced method would be to use a Guassian filter to weigh the contribution of each hand to the final estimate. e.g., target hand x4, two closest hands x3, two furthest hands x1. then divide sum by 12. The weightings I've chosen are somewhat arbitrary, based on the normal distribution, but the idea is to give more importance to the hand you're interested in and the hands most similar to it.

e.g. group 1
T9s +.60 BB x 4 = 2.40
98s -.10 x 3 = -.30
JTs -.27 x 3 = -.81
J9s +.14 x 1 = .14
T8s +.04 x 1 = .04
sum +1.47/12 = +0.12

group 2
87s +.14 x 4 =.56
76s -.01 x 3 = -.03
98s -.10 x 3 = -.30
97s +.16 x 1 = .16
86s +.14 x 1 = .14
sum +.53/12 = +.04

This suggests T9s is stronger than 87s, which i suspect is closer to the truth.

The fact that the values in each group vary so much argues for needing a much larger sample size (at least 1k and probably closer to 1.5k) to get an accurate assessment on any given suited connector hand. These averaging techniques seem to work reasonablywell for a relatively small sample though - i'm pretty sure T9s is much closer to being a .12BB winner than a .60BB winner, for example, and it seems plausible that 87s is closer to being a .04BB winner than a .14BB winner.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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