|
DRL453
|
01-03-2006, 04:10 AM
Post subject: Variance
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 15
|
|
Would it make sense that the overall variance would be much higher at lower limits where as higher limits would be lower since the bets are much bigger, or does it stay the same as you move up?
|
|
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
pokerfanatic
|
|
01-03-2006, 04:19 AM
Post subject: Re: Variance
|
#2 (permalink)
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: 6max limit tables
Posts: 1,968
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by DRL453
Would it make sense that the overall variance would be much higher at lower limits where as higher limits would be lower since the bets are much bigger, or does it stay the same as you move up?
|
Same, it's not a stake thing it's a type of play thing...
|
|
“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~
"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~
"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
|
|
DRL453
|
|
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 15
|
|
Yeah I understand what you are saying, I just thought that if its only 2 dollars more to call you down to the river versus 400 dollars at the turn and river to stay in that the donks would end up much luckier at the .50/1 limits for instance. I guess it's all relative to the size of your bankroll.
|
|
|
|
Demiparadigm
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Party 6 max
Posts: 1,602
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by DRL453
Yeah I understand what you are saying, I just thought that if its only 2 dollars more to call you down to the river versus 400 dollars at the turn and river to stay in that the donks would end up much luckier at the .50/1 limits for instance. I guess it's all relative to the size of your bankroll.
|
Variance is relatively higher at the higher limits because your edge is smaller.
|
|
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
|
|
|~|ypermegachi
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
|
|
lower limits tend to have players who will call down with anything.
higher limits tend to have players who will bluff you with anything.
edit: seems like it would be more expensive to handle bluffers vs calling stations.
|
|
|
|
pokerfanatic
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: 6max limit tables
Posts: 1,968
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi
lower limits tend to have players who will call down with anything.
higher limits tend to have players who will bluff you with anything.
edit: seems like it would be more expensive to handle bluffers vs calling stations.
|
well that's what I meant by style thing not a stake thing you find guys that bluff anything at 1/2 as well as 30/60 or whatever...
I think it's an Argo/ Passive issue, higher variance as the Argo Factors of the avg player’s increase...
|
|
“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~
"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~
"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
|
|
outphase
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 949
|
|
I'm not exactly sure what it says about my game wholistically, but with small sample sizes my Var(2/4) = 402.34342225 / 100 and Var(3/6) = 202.76905609 / 100 where Var = σ²
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by lambchopdc
Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.
|
|
|
Demiparadigm
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Party 6 max
Posts: 1,602
|
|
in BBs or $$$?
must be BBs, because that's all that makes sense, but without units those are confusing numbers.
That being said, a StdDev of 20 is high for 2/4 and 14 is really low for 3/6.
|
|
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
|
|
koolmoe
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Drowning in prosperity
Posts: 1,279
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
Variance is relatively higher at the higher limits because your edge is smaller.
|
Your edge has little to do with variance. Losing players can have very small variances and winning players can have very large variances.
In loose games you win fewer pots, but they are usually much bigger than in tight games. Aggressive games will also feature much larger pots than passive games. Bigger pots = more variance.
My take is that when you move up in stakes, the games get tighter, but also more aggressive. As a result, variance shouldn't change too much, but it may increase because the effect of the increase in aggression is often greater than the effect of the increase in tightness.
|
|
Poker is freedom
|
|
outphase
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 949
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
in BBs or $$$?
must be BBs, because that's all that makes sense, but without units those are confusing numbers.
That being said, a StdDev of 20 is high for 2/4 and 14 is really low for 3/6.
|
Those are in BB. My 2/4 sample is small because this wasn't the computer i played 2/4 the most on and I didn't transfer my PT db when I came home from college.
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by lambchopdc
Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20 is high? Mine is 25  and I play 15c/30c tables
|
|
|
|
Demiparadigm
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Party 6 max
Posts: 1,602
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by iopq
20 is high? Mine is 25 and I play 15c/30c tables |
-You play too many hands
-You go too far with mediocre holdings
-You play too agressively when your opponents tell you that you are beaten.
Find a couple mroe spots to save bets, and your variance will drop.
Not a problem yet, since your opponents are so bad.
|
|
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
|
|
pokerfanatic
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: 6max limit tables
Posts: 1,968
|
|
variance can slob my fucking noob!!!!
|
|
“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~
"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~
"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
|
|
|
|
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by iopq
20 is high? Mine is 25 :D and I play 15c/30c tables
|
-You play too many hands
-You go too far with mediocre holdings
-You play too agressively when your opponents tell you that you are beaten.
Find a couple mroe spots to save bets, and your variance will drop.
Not a problem yet, since your opponents are so bad. |
30/10 is too many hands?
I agree I go too far with marginal hands I should work on that
I don't believe that they can beat TPTK or an overpair as often as I should... I should really look out for raises... maybe slow down more
|
|
|
|
elipsesjeff
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by iopq
30/10 is too many hands?
|
yes
|
Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com
More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.
|
|
euphoricism
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
|
|
I need to learn how to cut my variance down a bit.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by iopq
30/10 is too many hands?
|
yes |
I play those hands that SSH tells me to play. I also complete any hand out of the SB because of the 2 to 3 structure of the blinds. HEFAP says my odds are too good to throw any cards away here.
|
|
|
|
pokerfanatic
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: 6max limit tables
Posts: 1,968
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by iopq
30/10 is too many hands?
|
yes |
I play those hands that SSH tells me to play. I also complete any hand out of the SB because of the 2 to 3 structure of the blinds. HEFAP says my odds are too good to throw any cards away here. |
big difference in situations in 6max and Full Ring...
|
|
“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~
"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~
"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
Linear Mode
