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euphoricism
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06-10-2006, 02:39 AM
Post subject: Valuebetting?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Stupid raise?
Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Preflop: Hero is Button with K , A.
1 fold, MP calls, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, SB caps, BB calls, MP folds, CO calls, Hero calls.
Flop: (17 SB) T , 8, 6 (4 players)
SB bets, BB calls, CO calls, Hero calls.
Turn: (10.50 BB) A (4 players)
SB bets, BB raises, CO folds, Hero calls, SB calls.
River: (16.50 BB) K (3 players)
SB bets, BB calls, Hero raises ...
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Harry
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Full House
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Philly
Posts: 722
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My first instinct on the river would be raise, but if I actually thought about it I think I would just call.
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PSU Class of 2011 weeeeeeee!
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6high
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06-10-2006, 03:38 AM
Post subject: Re: Valuebetting?
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#3 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: NZ
Posts: 136
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Stupid raise?
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Yes. If you're calling a 3bet.
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Xanadu
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06-10-2006, 04:35 AM
Post subject: Re: Valuebetting?
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#4 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by 6high
Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Stupid raise?
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Yes. If you're calling a 3bet. |
Folding to a 3-bet is horrible. If you would fold to a 3-bet a raise is horrible. You've got it backwards man. the pot is over 20BB!!!
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thenonsequitur
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06-10-2006, 07:22 AM
Post subject: Re: Valuebetting?
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#5 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Location: Location
Posts: 637
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I actually like this river raise. BB's tentative aggression followed by passiveness makes me think you are ahead of his Ax or lower two pair. SB's stop-and-go also makes me think there is a good chance you are tying or are ahead of him too. I'm not nearly as convinced I'm ahead of SB as much as I'm convinced I'm ahead of BB, so if BB folded the river to SB's bet, I'd just call.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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No comments on turn play?
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Nehmer
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06-10-2006, 02:19 PM
Post subject: Re: Valuebetting?
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#7 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Xanadu
Quote:
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Originally Posted by 6high
Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Stupid raise?
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Yes. If you're calling a 3bet. |
Folding to a 3-bet is horrible. If you would fold to a 3-bet a raise is horrible. You've got it backwards man. the pot is over 20BB!!! |
This statement is just wrong. Vs a lot of players, yes folding to the 3-bet would be horrible, but I can gaurantee you if he is playing vs somebody like me and I 3-bet him on this river, calling with just AK is -EV. The pot could be 100 BB and calling that river 3-bet vs me would be -EV, because I am never 3-betting on that board with all that action into 2 players with a worse hand than AK or even just AK. There are plenty of players like me out there where it is the same situation. Now in that situation if you think there is value in the raise, you have to also realize folding to a 3-bet is the best option.
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Xanadu
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06-10-2006, 05:01 PM
Post subject: Re: Valuebetting?
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#8 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Nehmer
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Xanadu
Quote:
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Originally Posted by 6high
Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Stupid raise?
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Yes. If you're calling a 3bet. |
Folding to a 3-bet is horrible. If you would fold to a 3-bet a raise is horrible. You've got it backwards man. the pot is over 20BB!!! |
This statement is just wrong. Vs a lot of players, yes folding to the 3-bet would be horrible, but I can gaurantee you if he is playing vs somebody like me and I 3-bet him on this river, calling with just AK is -EV. The pot could be 100 BB and calling that river 3-bet vs me would be -EV, because I am never 3-betting on that board with all that action into 2 players with a worse hand than AK or even just AK. There are plenty of players like me out there where it is the same situation. Now in that situation if you think there is value in the raise, you have to also realize folding to a 3-bet is the best option. |
Granted, it might be correct to fold a single time, but in any subsequent hand it is necessary to call in this situation. So, you would never bluff 3-bet this river? I don't buy that, because I don't think you are a mechanical player who can be read like a book in certain situations. Suppose you and me were playing here, and you are the SB and 3-bet the river. I fold to your 3-bet after a raise with over 22 BB in the pot. Being a thinking player, you are going to bluff 3-bet me once in a while on the river. Raising the river and then folding in a huge pot is so noticeable that even a passive inattentive player is going to notice it and think about bluffing once in a while here. The result is that with a big pot, it just becomes a horrible mistake to fold to a 3-bet here. You might do it once with a rock solid read (how can you have a read you know is 95% accurate here?). But thereafter, you have to call down the same opponent.
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Nehmer
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06-10-2006, 05:25 PM
Post subject: Re: Valuebetting?
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#9 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Xanadu
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Nehmer
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Xanadu
Quote:
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Originally Posted by 6high
Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Stupid raise?
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Yes. If you're calling a 3bet. |
Folding to a 3-bet is horrible. If you would fold to a 3-bet a raise is horrible. You've got it backwards man. the pot is over 20BB!!! |
This statement is just wrong. Vs a lot of players, yes folding to the 3-bet would be horrible, but I can gaurantee you if he is playing vs somebody like me and I 3-bet him on this river, calling with just AK is -EV. The pot could be 100 BB and calling that river 3-bet vs me would be -EV, because I am never 3-betting on that board with all that action into 2 players with a worse hand than AK or even just AK. There are plenty of players like me out there where it is the same situation. Now in that situation if you think there is value in the raise, you have to also realize folding to a 3-bet is the best option. |
Granted, it might be correct to fold a single time, but in any subsequent hand it is necessary to call in this situation. So, you would never bluff 3-bet this river? I don't buy that, because I don't think you are a mechanical player who can be read like a book in certain situations. Suppose you and me were playing here, and you are the SB and 3-bet the river. I fold to your 3-bet after a raise with over 22 BB in the pot. Being a thinking player, you are going to bluff 3-bet me once in a while on the river. Raising the river and then folding in a huge pot is so noticeable that even a passive inattentive player is going to notice it and think about bluffing once in a while here. The result is that with a big pot, it just becomes a horrible mistake to fold to a 3-bet here. You might do it once with a rock solid read (how can you have a read you know is 95% accurate here?). But thereafter, you have to call down the same opponent. |
This pot isn't heads up...It also involves a player who cold called 4 bets preflop and raised the turn. In a situation like this, I most certainly am a mechanical player who can be read like a book(there just isn't value to being deceptive here). Heads up it plays a lot different, but it isn't heads up. Anyway, if raise/folding this river makes other people make stupid bluffs vs me in a later pots that just seems like more of a positive. It's not like situations like this come up often at all, so the vast majority of the time anybody raises this river, they are calling a 3-bet....This means that not making a -EV call now might eventually cause somebody to make a -EV bluff vs me in the future...seems like a good deal to me.
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