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outphase
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01-12-2006, 05:17 AM
Post subject: Value bet on the worst river card?
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 949
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I was very torn at the river card in this hand as it completed virtually every draw. What's the plan of attack in this one given I close the action?
Missed bet or saved bet?
UTG is 27.08/4.17/1.5 over 48 hands
PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx
Preflop: Hero is Button with A , A .
UTG calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls.
Flop: (6.33 SB) J, 9, 3 (3 players)
BB bets, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, BB folds, UTG calls.
Turn: (5.66 BB) 8 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.
River: (7.66 BB) T (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.
Final Pot: 7.66 BB
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lambchopdc
Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.
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Shark Bait
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 481
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No way am I betting that river.
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<a500lbgorilla> Limit is poker with training wheels!
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
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I bet; too easy for him to have TP here.
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Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com
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midas06
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: NZ
Posts: 2,196
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
I bet; too easy for him to have TP here.
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I haven't been to 3/6 yet, but what are the odds that UTG could have been raising BB for a free card here?
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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fairly small. The guys either trying to protect his top pair, or he's got a straight flush draw. I probably check behind on the river as well, but I'm a river pussy.
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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looks like a good place to bet/fold
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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oo I like a bet fold here, but I doubt its a play many people can make.
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Romulus141
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Straight
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Oxford, PA
Posts: 118
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I'm tempted to bet. He raised you on the flop, meaning he probably already has a hand. I don't think he's aggressive enough to raise purely on a flush or straight draw. He might have two-pair but there's a chance he might just have a jack, so I bet the river. Heck, the completed draws may even scare him into folding something like two-pair (not likely, but it could happen).
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
oo I like a bet fold here, but I doubt its a play many people can make.
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I wouldn't be able to fold here if I was first to act, but a check raise would make me get away in a hurry O.o
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STIdrivr
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Southern california
Posts: 580
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this is a tough one, there are so many hands that beat you i would probably end up checking behind also. He may have something like K J and call another bet.
Hey |~|ypermegachi who is that in your avatar?
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roymunson451
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Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 57
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Play big pots w/big hands. All you have is a pair. Just check and hope your AA holds up.
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pokerfanatic
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: 6max limit tables
Posts: 1,968
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i would bet but i'm toying with bet/fold and bet/call if he in fact c/r...
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“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~
"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~
"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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I read this again, its a clear bet/call.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
I read this again, its a clear bet/call.
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at my stakes no one check-raises with less than a set
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ihategnomes
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 1,225
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I can understand bet/fold here, but I cant understand bet/call. Someone care to explain why. If we get check raised, Im not sure we can even win 11% of the time in a passive game like this.
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Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
<Bbickes> i still wanna know if the thing in your avatar is a real chick or not
<Bbickes> or am i e-crushing a dude
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when you get CHECKRAISED ON THE RIVER
ON A CARD THAT COMPLETES ALL DRAWS
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seriously, I've been only checkraised twice or thrice over over 1000 hands, but every time I ran into a set or a full house or the nut flush or straight
it's scary to get checkraised at my stakes
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Yeah bet/fold is better. Theres no way I'm checking behind.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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And what makes you think he's going to check raise? He has KJ.
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pokerfanatic
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: 6max limit tables
Posts: 1,968
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ihategnomes
I can understand bet/fold here, but I cant understand bet/call. Someone care to explain why. If we get check raised, Im not sure we can even win 11% of the time in a passive game like this.
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most people donk the river fearing to miss a beat, thus a c/r would be ballsy, so it makes me think that he didn't hit a draw but if he does c/r I can't put him on just to pair, i think the times you beat and he calls you win and extra bet, the times you get c/r and fold you loose a bet the times you check behind and have the best hand you miss a bet, to me you have more +EV by beating then checking...
A c/r at this level 95% or more of the time is a hand, a donk in this spot could mean a complete bluff or a rivered hand, however a check usually means weakness, as I said before many players are scared to miss a bet and will donk with a hand...
Thus a bet/fold has the most +EV… Is that about right?
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“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~
"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~
"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
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ihategnomes
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 1,225
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Quote:
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Thus a bet/fold has the most +EV… Is that about right?
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I agree, but I am still waiting on someone to explain to me the bet/call line.
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Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
<Bbickes> i still wanna know if the thing in your avatar is a real chick or not
<Bbickes> or am i e-crushing a dude
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