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value bet this river?

  
 
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JcTc
Old 02-03-2005, 06:59 PM     Post subject: value bet this river? #1 (permalink)  

Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 3
JcTc
Sup everyone,

Recently new to limit from NL, been doing alright, but still a lot of kinks in my game. So I'll have a lot of questions. My first one: on this hand do you bet for value or check the aces? Thanks?

JcTc


Hand #4186771-6147 at Santiago ($.50/$1 Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 03/Feb/05 14:36:31

sorjoh is at seat 0 with $17.90.
sunfire42 is at seat 1 with $22.25.
Becky Lou is at seat 2 with $11.60.
FarmersAgent is at seat 3 with $13.40.
fadrus is at seat 4 with $50.
swmrdak79 is at seat 5 with $28.25.
SunGun is at seat 6 with $34.70.
JcTc is at seat 7 with $48.50.
big_d535 is at seat 8 with $12.75.
allibru is at seat 9 with $9.10.
The button is at seat 7.

big_d535 posts the small blind of $.25.
allibru posts the big blind of $.50.

sorjoh: -- --
sunfire42: -- --
FarmersAgent: -- --
swmrdak79: -- --
SunGun: -- --
JcTc: Ac As
big_d535: -- --
allibru: -- --

Pre-flop:

sorjoh folds. sunfire42 calls. FarmersAgent folds.
swmrdak79 calls. SunGun calls. JcTc raises to $1.
big_d535 re-raises to $1.50. allibru folds.
sunfire42 calls. swmrdak79 folds. SunGun folds.
JcTc re-raises to $2. big_d535 calls. sunfire42
calls.

Flop (board: 7s 8d Tc):

big_d535 checks. sunfire42 bets $.50. JcTc raises
to $1. big_d535 calls. sunfire42 calls.

Turn (board: 7s 8d Tc 2s):

big_d535 checks. sunfire42 checks. JcTc bets $1.
big_d535 calls. sunfire42 calls.

River (board: 7s 8d Tc 2s 6d):

big_d535 checks. sunfire42 checks. JcTc ......?
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Tripps7
Old 02-03-2005, 07:50 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Posts: 130
Tripps7
Not knowing the player styles too much, it's hard to say. But my gut says yes.

None of them have shown strength since the flop. I am guessin the SB has AK or maybe JJ-QQ since he check-called on the river. With your raise on sunfire on the flop and her subsequent check calls, I am guessing she limped in with A10, K-10 or J10 and hit top pair.

It's possible that sunfire has 99 and was betting out on the flop for value. But in my opinion it is better to bet and not risk losing the extra bet if she does have 10's or over cards. If raised on the river just call it down.

I know they are better players reading so do they agree/disagree?
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ChezJ
Old 02-03-2005, 07:50 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 tough question, similar to the one i posed under the heading "Tales of AA at UltimateBeat."

i think it all depends on your read of your opponents. are they newbies, fancy players, or tight aggressives?

most newbies would wake up on the river and bet into the aggressor once they made a powerful hand like a straight, not realizing how this totally telegraphs their hand and risks losing calls.

fancy players love to slowplay, so you can count on them to take advantage of your aggression and check-raise you. but they are pretty rare.

tight aggressives recognize low limit holdem as the domain of calling stations and know that they will get paid off even with a super obvious straight. they do not want to risk getting checked through on a scary river, so they do exactly what the newbies do, which is bet their strong hands rather than go for a risky fancy play.

given all this, the odds seem good that your AA are best and worth another value bet on the river. you're probably up against top pair.

some would argue that if neither of these guys has a 9, they will fold to you on the river and you will win no extra value bets. but if someone does have a 9, you will get checkraised and lose 2 bets. but again, i think check-raising on the river is pretty rare.

ChezJ
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Tripps7
Old 02-03-2005, 08:28 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Tripps7
I agree with Chez. I almost never check raise try on the river if I complete my draw unless I know that someone to my left is super aggressive and I am almost 100% sure they will bet out. I think the few times you are successful check raising the river does not make up what you gain by betting out.

It all depends on your read of the other players
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gabe
Old 02-03-2005, 09:49 PM #5 (permalink)  
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dont raise it preflop, and value bet the river

edit: i'm an idiot, of course raise it, and i would value bet it
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JcTc
Old 02-03-2005, 09:54 PM #6 (permalink)  

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JcTc
Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
dont raise it preflop, and value bet the river
Care to explain your response? Thanks.
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ChezJ
Old 02-03-2005, 09:55 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
dont raise it preflop, and value bet the river
are you kidding me?? you have to cap AA preflop, other wise you are virtually guaranteeing that someone will play some crappy 9 and river you. or even catch 2pr on the flop.

your positive expectation is so dramatically high with AA vs any other cards, you cannot possibly limp in w AA.

ChezJ
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gabe
Old 02-03-2005, 09:57 PM #8 (permalink)  
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damnit. i thought he had JTs. I read it wrong, of course you cap AA!
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HeavyP
Old 02-03-2005, 10:06 PM #9 (permalink)  
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I wouldn't value bet that river, I'm fine with taking the cheap showdown there.
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