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08-25-2006, 01:26 AM
Post subject: Is the value bet justified?
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#1 (permalink)
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I am afraid that my bet on the river might have been one of those bets that are never called when my opponent is behind. What do you think? Did I make the right play?
Prima Poker skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
10 players
Converter
Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is Button with J T
5 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, Hero calls, SB folds, BB checks.
Flop: 5 J 7 (3.5SB, 3 players)
BB checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls, BB folds.
Turn: 4 (2.75BB, 2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls.
River: 5 (4.75BB, 2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets, MP3 folds.
Uncalled bets: 1BB returned to Hero.
Results:
Final pot: 4.75BB
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Villain is often limping AJ or QJ, but is also limping low pocket pairs, and if he sucks Ax hands too. This is a spot I could go either way and not feel bad about it.
Raise the flop?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Villain is often limping AJ or QJ, but is also limping low pocket pairs, and if he sucks Ax hands too. This is a spot I could go either way and not feel bad about it.
Raise the flop?
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At these stakes I wouldn't be surprised if the villain was limping J5 TBQH
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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Most players that have a better hand than you would have continued betting the turn. Given that, I probably would have bet the river and just hoped he had a low pair, A7, or something along those lines instead of hanging around with the 5.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Nehmer
Most players that have a better hand than you would have continued betting the turn. Given that, I probably would have bet the river and just hoped he had a low pair, A7, or something along those lines instead of hanging around with the 5.
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Yes, after the turn check I figured his hand was worse than mine. Then again, some guy at the same table checked a set of queens until the river.
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kyc12
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Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 89
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Nehmer
Most players that have a better hand than you would have continued betting the turn. Given that, I probably would have bet the river and just hoped he had a low pair, A7, or something along those lines instead of hanging around with the 5.
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Yes, after the turn check I figured his hand was worse than mine. Then again, some guy at the same table checked a set of queens until the river. |
Villian will only call with a low pair or pair J (QJ or lower). Should be able to safely assume villian does not have 2pair either.
If you bet and villian raise, what is your plan? If he never bluff, then you can fold, so you only need to win a little more than 50% of the time, and betting is surely for value. On the other hand, if he will fold some low pair and occasionally raise, the decision will be much closer.
In short, against an average .5/1 player your bet is for value, for stronger ones I'm not so sure.
Also, raise the flop. You almost surely have the best hand, and JJ is too weak for waiting to raise later.
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arkitekton
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
Posts: 269
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It's close, but I bet the river in a .50/1 game.
As others have pointed out, you may be up against a pocket pair, A7, or the likes of K7, 87, 76... and I agree that against such as AJ or KJ or 54 (and possibly worse hands like A7) villain probably would have bet the turn. Add to that that villain might have donked trip fives on the river and it seems the hands you beat outnumber the hands that beat you
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Villain is often limping AJ or QJ, but is also limping low pocket pairs, and if he sucks Ax hands too. This is a spot I could go either way and not feel bad about it.
Raise the flop?
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At these stakes I wouldn't be surprised if the villain was limping J5 TBQH |
I would be very surprised. The days of loosy-goosy full ring games on Party are long gone, even as low at .50/1. The games are instead very tight passive.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
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Yeah, they limp J5o in 6 max now.
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Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com
More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Villain is often limping AJ or QJ, but is also limping low pocket pairs, and if he sucks Ax hands too. This is a spot I could go either way and not feel bad about it.
Raise the flop?
|
At these stakes I wouldn't be surprised if the villain was limping J5 TBQH |
I would be very surprised. The days of loosy-goosy full ring games on Party are long gone, even as low at .50/1. The games are instead very tight passive. |
this is not party I see 4 people to the flop on average
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arkitekton
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
Posts: 269
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Last long stretch I played $1/2 at Party (this past spring), over 11,000 hands villains' collective VP$IP was 25.31%, PFR was 7.34%. Not supertight...
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by arkitekton
Last long stretch I played $1/2 at Party (this past spring), over 11,000 hands villains' collective VP$IP was 25.31%, PFR was 7.34%. Not supertight...
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In full right? yeah, thats pretty tight.
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Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com
More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.
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LimpinAintEZ
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: working myself up to FTR fullhouse status while not giving 1 solid piece of advice
Posts: 591
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
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Originally Posted by arkitekton
Last long stretch I played $1/2 at Party (this past spring), over 11,000 hands villains' collective VP$IP was 25.31%, PFR was 7.34%. Not supertight...
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In full right? yeah, thats pretty tight. |
agreed - pretty damn tight for 1/2 - wow - surprising...the 3/6 games on Full Tilt are wilder than that...
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this space intentionally left blank
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arkitekton
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
Posts: 269
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Quote:
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In full right? yeah, thats pretty tight.
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Yeah--that's full ring.
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agreed - pretty damn tight for 1/2 - wow - surprising..the 3/6 games on Full Tilt are wilder than that....
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Is it? I'll have to head over to Full Tilt then. The games at Party were definitely winnable, but definitely a grind.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by arkitekton
Quote:
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In full right? yeah, thats pretty tight.
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Yeah--that's full ring.
Quote:
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agreed - pretty damn tight for 1/2 - wow - surprising..the 3/6 games on Full Tilt are wilder than that....
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Is it? I'll have to head over to Full Tilt then. The games at Party were definitely winnable, but definitely a grind. |
LOL, life is a grind.
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Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com
More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.
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