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KoRnholio
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02-28-2008, 10:30 PM
Post subject: Value bet?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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Villain is semi-loose aggressive preflop, passive postflop. Stats 22/9/1.36. Goes to showdown 27% of the time, wins $ at showdown 46%. He is kinda bad, but mostly he is running pretty terribly.
After his turn check and call I think he has something like AT, KJ, or perhaps a hand like JT/JJ/TT with one club. Though there is a habit starting on crypto of people slowplaying lock hands until the river, so AA/AK/KK isn't out of the question either...
Cryptologic 2.00/4.00 Hold'em (9 handed) link
Preflop: Hero is Button with K , Q .
2 folds, MP2 raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, 1 folds, BB calls.
Flop: (6.50 SB) 7, A, K (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, BB folds, MP2 calls.
Turn: (5.25 BB) A (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls.
River: (7.25 BB) 4 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero...?
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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VinceSincere
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Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 24
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I like the raise on the flop, mostly in order to get a free card for your flush draw. However once he calls just calls the raise, I put him on a crappy ace. This fits in with your semi-loose aggressive read on his pre-flop tendencies.
I check the river and smile if the pot happens to come my way.
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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I don't play FR but 22/9 is LAG preflop...?
I would play this hand completely differently from start to finish.
Preflop, we cold call with KQo. Ugh. Raise or fold please, preferably the latter. If we must play, we want to get HU if possible . Raising also lets us see how MP reacts to being raised and gives us the initiative postflop.
Once we cold call preflop - i just call his flop bet. If BB has a lone club I prefer to keep him in drawing dead as long as possible.
Once we raise the flop - why bet the turn? He's not folding anything he called our flop raise with and we could get c/r'd and have to pay two bb for our draw (if we're behind).
Once we raise the flop and bet the turn - what is he calling a river bet with that we beat? Practically nothing unless he's a total fish, and 27% WSD doesn't sound like a total fish to me. I check behind.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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YuujiA
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Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 25
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agree with ddog. 22VPIP isnt that loose at all. with that the best you can hope for is that he is raising with a KQ as well. Yes the slow down is suspicious, but what if he flopped a set and turned a boat? Of course you cannot fear such hands all the time but the best way to avoid such situation in the first place is to not cold call with that hand.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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My PFR is a tad higher than 9% and that call is very -EV. If you think he's FOS then 3-ball it. Otherwise, don't pick on good TAggs raising good hands.
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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This guy is most definitely not a "good tag". Based on my reads on him, he has probably been getting a shitty run of cards lately. His "true" preflop stats could well be something like 25/12. And he has shown down some junk before.
8 handed from middle position this guy is opening worse than KQ a fair amount of the time. His preflop range is probably like A9+, A6s+, KJ, JTo+, T9s+, 66+. And given that he is passive postflop, I will be able to take free cards quite often.
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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The range you describe is more like 20% from UTG+2. But if that is your read then you would definitely be better off 3betting pf.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by KoRnholio
Based on my reads on him, he has probably been getting a shitty run of cards lately.
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The elevator is going to the third floor.
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
The range you describe is more like 20% from UTG+2. But if that is your read then you would definitely be better off 3betting pf.
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Possibly, if he was raising from the CO or even Hijack seat I would probably have 3bet it. Given that he is almost from early position I felt cold calling wasn't too bad. I have a very bad habit of spewing bets against checks postflop after I have 3bet preflop that I am working on. Part of my strat change involves cold calling in spots like this.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by KoRnholio
Based on my reads on him, he has probably been getting a shitty run of cards lately.
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The elevator is going to the third floor. |
I have no idea what your cryptic reply means. All I meant was that his play is much worse/looser than his PT stats suggest.
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by KoRnholio
Based on my reads on him, he has probably been getting a shitty run of cards lately.
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The elevator is going to the third floor. |
I think that is Fnordish for 3bet preflop.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by KoRnholio
Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
The range you describe is more like 20% from UTG+2. But if that is your read then you would definitely be better off 3betting pf.
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Possibly, if he was raising from the CO or even Hijack seat I would probably have 3bet it. |
Is it possible the problem lies with your 3betting range preflop and not the fact that you c-bet post? just a thought...
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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Given the range I assigned to him I am slightly behind.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.969% 50.02% 02.95% 157580972 9305757.00 { 66+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A9o+, KJo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 47.031% 44.08% 02.95% 138871450 9305757.00 { KhQd }
I would prefer not to bloat the pot with a K-high hand, which will make this passive postflop player chase/more inclined to showdown an ace high.
The plan behind cold calling in position was to use my position and his passivity to maneuver as needed.
The more I look at the hand, the more I think his line makes the most sense with a pocket pair 77-QQ here with one club.
Of course that is assuming that the villain is either
a) paying attention (I am quite aggressive on draws), which he may or may not be.
or b) is stubborn and will start showing down mediocre hands against aggression
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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stenz
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Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 19
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I'd probably check behind.
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arborman
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 300
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I check behind and expect to win against a total moron maybe 10%, lose to a badly played ace maybe 20%, chop with another KQ once in awhile, and win a kicker fight with another King many times, not to mention missed straight draws.
I check behind because it would be very hard to legitimately call a checkraise, and if his draw missed he would fold anyways. He has something he liked enough to call. My bet is he has a rag ace and is afraid of the flush and so isn't pushing it the way he should, or he thinks he's being tricky.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by KoRnholio
Given the range I assigned to him I am slightly behind.
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3-betting gets the blinds out of the pot and will win you the pot sometimes with the worse hand.
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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Results:
I did check behind and he turned up QJ with the jack of clubs.
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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