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ugly hand, bad position, long odds
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|~|ypermegachi
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08-27-2005, 02:42 AM
Post subject: ugly hand, bad position, long odds
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx
Preflop: Hero is SB with J , A.
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, CO raises, 1 fold, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG 3-bets, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, BB calls.
Flop: (18 SB) T , 2, Q (7 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP3 bets, CO calls, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG calls, MP1 folds.
Turn: (11 BB) J (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP3 folds, CO calls, Hero calls.
River: (14 BB) J (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, CO raises, Hero calls, UTG calls.
Final Pot: 20 BB
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Demiparadigm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Party 6 max
Posts: 1,602
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looks good.
20 to 1 on the flop for a gutshot, and 11 to 1 on the turn after picking up a pair.
You have to be good 11% of the time on the river to make this overcall/cold call, so I think that is your thinnest call in the hand. You could find a fold here against many passive players.
Also, you aren't closing action on the river, so a fold is even closer to correct.
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To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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i woulda folded the turn if i didn't pick up possible 2 pair, trip outs. they all had AK...
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jmontis
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,296
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even with the odds to call, that turn is still pretty ugly, they aren't going to have the flush/boat most of the time, still...
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take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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I don't like the turn call at all. Every one of your outs is badly tainted. If you hit a K for the inside straight, there is a very good chance you are splitting the pot(possibly with more than one person). If you hit an A for two pair, you lose to anybody with a K or with AQ. Both the A and K outs are discounted further by the 2 that are diamonds. The J is probably your best bet on the river and it doesn't exactly give you a monster hand. Then consider every one of these outs is only good if nobody already had the flush or AK on the turn and I think it's a very easy fold....
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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i actually had a worse feeling calling the flop than i did calling the turn because i closed the action on the turn. but you're right, at the time i called i didn't notice how bad my outs were...but i was still probably 4 outs, which in that case i did have odds to call.
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