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outphase

09-22-2006, 07:57 PM Post subject: Turn raise TP + FD

#1 (permalink)

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This one standard? I was thinking along the lines of "if I'm not ahead, I have many cards that will make me ahead"

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9

, A

.
UTG calls, MP calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG calls, MP folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (11 SB) A

, 5

, 6

(3 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 7

(3 players)
SB bets, UTG folds, Hero raises...

Quote:

Originally Posted by lambchopdc

Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.

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pokerfanatic

09-22-2006, 09:06 PM

#2 (permalink)

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i like it... even if your Ace isn't good you have a ton of outs...

TPDK, NUT FD, solid GSD (nut the pure nut GSD the would be JT)... that's a strong hand there... raise for value

nicely played IMO...

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bigspenda73

09-22-2006, 09:24 PM

#3 (permalink)

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I like the raise here, especially if you are looking for a cheap showdown if you miss the river.

Xanadu

09-24-2006, 06:26 PM

#4 (permalink)

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Looks good. You are a 2:1 favorite if opponent has QQ+,AQ+. Only if opponent would never bet here without an A are you significantly behind, or in the case of a set of 5, 6 or 7s. You do have to watch out for those yahoos that think any pp is worth a 3-bet.

arkitekton

10-01-2006, 08:12 AM

#5 (permalink)

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Well, I doubt you`re ahead here, and since you have only 15 outs against one player, thinking that you`re raising for value is a mistake. It`s only worth a raise if you get a cheap showdown plus fold equity, but villain is only going to fold hands you can beat--two outers like QQ that you want to get at least one more bet out of--I don`t forsee anyone dumping AK here... Finally, if you get reraised, that`s an expensive draw you`re on.

bigspenda73

10-01-2006, 08:47 AM

#6 (permalink)

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Stay aggressive, raise and take control of the hand, you win more when you win and you lose the same when you lose. I don't see what hand can 3bet you here if opponent isnt a total donk.

arkitekton

10-02-2006, 12:16 AM

#7 (permalink)

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Quote:

I don't see what hand can 3bet you here if opponent isnt a total donk.

55, 66, 77, certainly.

Quote:

you win more when you win and you lose the same when you lose.

You actually win LESS, often, by raising. Unless villain is a complete idiot, he's folding KK, QQ, JJ, and possibly a few other hands, to a turn raise. If you just call, he's may well check calling if a blank comes on the river, or bet out.

In addition to that, if you raise the turn and he does call, he may check/fold hands on the river you can beat if one of your draws comes in, hands he might have bet for value on the river and called if raised there instead of on the turn.

There really are many cases where you win less by raising on the turn heads up against a decent opponent.

bigspenda73

10-02-2006, 03:22 AM

#8 (permalink)

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If your opponent fold, you win w/out showdown, Im not taking that into account. If you are going to get at least 2BBs in why not make it on the turn and give yourself a chance of a few things:

1. Taking the pot down right there
2. Missing your draw and getting a cheap showdown
and
3. Hitting your draw and getting 1 more bet out of your opponent.

I like the raise, I like to put pressure on my opponents, and I dont think players at this level would fold KK/QQ/JJ here, I just think they are going to showdown w/ these hands, at the very least call the turn raise and peel a river.

arkitekton

10-02-2006, 05:18 AM

#9 (permalink)

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Quote:

...and I dont think players at this level would fold KK/QQ/JJ here, I just think they are going to showdown w/ these hands, at the very least call the turn raise and peel a river.

That's probably all of the difference in our approach right there. If I were fairly certain villain would call here with an underpair then a turn raise makes a lot of sense, and I don't object to it in those circumstances. Against a decent player (an assumption I typically make in these threads unless the poster indicates we're up against a maniac or a fish), though, raising is a very, very poor play.

dsaxton

10-02-2006, 06:20 AM

#10 (permalink)

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This is a play Chip Reese talks about in Super System, except with respect to 7 card stud. If it's likely you'll be bet into on both 6th street and the river, if you'll be correct in calling both bets, if you have outs to improve to a strong winning hand, and if you're unlikely to get reraised, you should raise on 6th, check behind on the river unimproved and bet if you improve.

It's basically the same idea here. Raise the turn, and check behind if you don't improve, otherwise bet.

elipsesjeff

10-02-2006, 07:00 AM

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Pretty much.

Raise here for two reasons:

1) When you do hit you get to put that extra bet in on the river if he'll just check/call with AK.

2) If he flat calls you get the free showdown.

If he reraises you you still got 14 outs to suckout and get an extra raise off on the river.

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arkitekton

10-02-2006, 08:24 AM

#12 (permalink)

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Quote:

If your opponent fold, you win w/out showdown, Im not taking that into account.

Given the last 3 posts, I'll have to revisit this assumption--it needs to be taken into account. The last 3 posters also assume villain is an idiot. If that's in fact the case, we can do any fool thing we want and imagine we'll come out ahead. If villain is, in fact, a reasonably competent player, then raising the turn is a -EV play compared to waiting for the river.

Here's why:

It's more than reasonable to assume the small blind is on something such as AK, AA-JJ. With 2 opponents limping, then a raise, an especially given that he's out of position, this really should be a premium hand.

The % he'll hold
AK = 29.6
AA = 3.7
KK, QQ, JJ = 66. 7

If he holds KK, QQ, or JJ, It's reasonable to assume if you call the turn bet, villain will check/call the river. If you raise immediately, on the turn, he will fold. There's an Ace on the board. With a 2-outer, No winning player will consistently call a turn raise with an underpair to the board's high card Ace against a nonmaniac.

You raise the turn, he folds, you win 1 bet=
.667 * 1= +0.667

You raise the turn, he calls with AK (rather fortunately for you), a blank hits, and you check-check the river
.296 * 2 * 29/44 = -0.39

You raise the turn, he calls with AK, a winner hits for you, and villain check calls the river
.296 *3 * 15/44 = +0.30

This gives raising the turn an EV of about +0.58 of a big bet

You call the turn and bet the river after he checks with KK, QQ, or JJ=
.667 * 2 = 1.334
(I'll call a wash the time he hits his two-outer against the times you catch your flush)
You call the turn and river when you don't improve against AK or AA
.334 * 2 * 29/44 = -0.44
You call the turn and raise on the river when you improve to a straight or flush against AK or AA
.334 * 3 * 12/44 = +0.27

Calling the turn and betting or calling or raising the river has an EV of about +1.164

You can only come out ahead by raising the turn if you assume villain is a drooling mouth-breather who won't notice the overcard to his pocket pair, your preflop raise of two opponents, the Ace on the board, and your turn raise in what is not a bluffing situation.

Quote:

Reese makes a good point, but this isn't that hand, or that situation. Sorry

elipsesjeff

10-02-2006, 08:28 AM

#13 (permalink)

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Quote:

Reese makes a good point, but this isn't that hand, or that situation. Sorry.

WTF? yes it is! What part of this situation doesn't it fit?

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outphase

10-02-2006, 12:48 PM

#14 (permalink)

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in a common stars 6max LHE game, if I'm calling the turn, the opp's betting the river. Therefore, the Reese example does indeed apply.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lambchopdc

Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.

bigspenda73

10-02-2006, 06:24 PM

#15 (permalink)

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I like this discussion, finally a debatable hand in LHE.

The big thing to me here is that you are going to get ATLEAST two more bets in this pot no matter what before a showdown. Why not get 2 of them in on the turn, with the chance of getting a 3rd in on the river. No way am I folding here, so why not get the 2 in on the turn, then give myself the opportunity to bet behind a check on the river? Im not folding TPMK in 6max, I just won't unless the board is horribly scary.

I just think the line of calling the turn, then raising the river when you complete your flush is a poor line. It screams of a flush and a good opponent could lay down a hand like AT here. On top of that, what if your opponent checks a spade on the river, then you just lost a bet by not raising the turn.

The real dilemna here is wondering if you are going to get 3bet on the turn. If you are certain you will not then raising the turn is certainly the right play.

elipsesjeff

10-02-2006, 06:33 PM

#16 (permalink)

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The only people that three-bet this turn are sets. Not even in some of the toughest 30/60 games I've played, will AK 3 bet here. It's just too unlikely he's up against 2 pair.

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arkitekton

10-04-2006, 02:08 AM

#17 (permalink)

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Quote:

WTF? yes it is! What part of this situation doesn't it fit?

The part where there's serious and apparently total disagreement on whether villain will fold pocket pairs here other than AA--since these constitute about two-thirds of his likely hands, if we can't agree on how he'll respond with KK-JJ to a turn raise, we can't agree on whether a turn raise by us is a good play.

Quote:

in a common stars 6max LHE game, if I'm calling the turn, the opp's betting the river. Therefore, the Reese example does indeed apply

Again, it all depends on what we think villain will do with hands we can already crush. If I thought there was a good chance villain would call with hands he should obviously fold (underpairs to the Ace on the board), I'd wholeheartedly agree with y'all. If part of the question was, 'what do you do if opponent is a weak, passive, calling station?' then, sure, raise that turn! But, obviously by now, I think villain has to be an idiot to call a turn raise with what is obviously a 2-outer (KK-JJ).

Since I've told you what I'd do if villain was a bad player, I'm wondering, then, what would each of you do on the turn if part of the equation was that villain was a tight, aggressive player highly unlikely to call down a turn raise here (after he has shown aggression preflop and bet strongly on the flop and, so far, the turn) with an underpair?

outphase

10-04-2006, 02:56 AM

#18 (permalink)

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Quote:

You call the turn and bet the river after he checks with KK, QQ, or JJ=
.667 * 2 = 1.334

This case assumes KK-JJ will make the crying call on the river. If he's folding to the turn raise, I'm not sure if he's calling a river either. I believe this is the case of the "fool." The inconsistency I see is that you assume he'll call the river when he wouldn't call the turn raise. If he folds to 1 more bet regardless of it's street (likely with KK-JJ against a reasonable player), the EV is equal.

Btw, I never thought this hand would elicit such a nice debate. Well... as long as everyone remains civil and takes what's said into consideration instead of always spouting out "no you're wrong, i'm right"

Quote:

Originally Posted by lambchopdc

Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.

arkitekton

10-05-2006, 02:19 AM

#19 (permalink)

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Agreeed--it's a nice hand to discuss, and it seemed to stay reasonably civil despite the heat it generated.

As I was writing my earlier post I did in fact think about the point you just made, and I don't believe I'm having it both ways by imagining villain will fold to a turn raise, but check call the river. These are two interdependent decisions, and each has both a dependent and an internally consistent logic.

When you (as villain in this example) show strength throughout the hand, and nonetheless get raised on the turn when an overcard hits (one that has to be as scary to your opponent as it is to you), when you hold an underpair it is usual to fold. To call down in this type of situation is a big leak, and I think all of us tend to look for games featuring calling stations who call to the river with an underpair here despite being raised-- I know I do. I see someone do this twice and I put him on my buddy list

To bet the turn when an overcard comes and fold to a raise, and if only called check call the river both to avoid having to deal with a raise and in order to occasionally induce a one-bet bluff is standard play. If villain is on KK-JJ, once you've called the turn, if he assumes you're sane, he can also assume he's beaten--so why would he bet the river? He can check call at 10 t0 1, but I doubt he wants to risk putting in two bets to see your hand. It's also possible you'll check behind with a weak Ace, thereby saving himself a bet.

btw--I don't see any hands you would have hung around on, given the preflop betting, and your flop call, where you catch a draw on the turn without an Ace. I don't think, for example, that you'd overcall the flop bet with Ks Qs, or Qs Js, or 88 for that matter--so this isn't a bluffing situation where villain might call a turn raise because a reasonable percentage of the time you're raising purely on a draw.

Last, no one has specifically addressed what kind of player calls a turn raise with an underpair. Isn't it a significant leak, the kind routinely made by poor players?

elipsesjeff

10-05-2006, 02:40 AM

#20 (permalink)

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More likely villain has AK or AQ here more than JJ-KK just because those combinations are dealt more. We are not raising here for pure value on the turn, but being able to get the extra bet in when we do hit one of our insanely number of outs.

Also, AT and AJ may fold here to a raise.

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arkitekton

10-05-2006, 07:05 AM

#21 (permalink)

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Quote:

More likely villain has AK or AQ here more than JJ-KK just because those combinations are dealt more.

Given the betting and that we're looking at two Aces, no, it isn't.

Quote:

We are not raising here for pure value on the turn, but being able to get the extra bet in when we do hit one of our insanely number of outs.

It's not an insane number, but a decided minority number, and you're playing heads up. We've already done the math here--other than your "free" check on the river, if you're behind, every bet you put in with your draw on the turn costs you money.

Quote:

Also, AT and AJ may fold here to a raise

If you think the small blind is going to 3 bet, preflop, out of position, with these hands, (or AQ for that matter), you're smokin' some pretty sweet stuff, jeff.

elipsesjeff

10-05-2006, 03:19 PM

#22 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by arkitekton

Quote:

More likely villain has AK or AQ here more than JJ-KK just because those combinations are dealt more.

Given the betting and that we're looking at two Aces, no, it isn't.

Aren't there 16 ways to be dealt AK and 16 for AQ? How many different ways are there for JJ-KK? Even with our Ace there is a strong likelihood that he has a higher one, especially since he is leading into multiple opponents with the Ace on board. Whether or not villain folds an underpair here on an Ace high board to a raise is irrelevant and you are paying way too much attention to this. In fact, I've seen KK still call this raise on the turn and call the river bet. They're called calling stations, welcome to 6 max.

Quote:

We are not raising here for pure value on the turn, but being able to get the extra bet in when we do hit one of our insanely number of outs.

9 spades + 3 non-spade 8s as well as 3 9s are an insane number of outs. You don't need a 22 out draw to do this here and it works often enough with just 8, let alone 15.

Quote:

Also, AT and AJ may fold here to a raise

If you think the small blind is going to 3 bet, preflop, out of position, with these hands, (or AQ for that matter), you're smokin' some pretty sweet stuff, jeff.

Play 6 max much? 3 betting AJ and AQ is pretty standard and in this case would be correct in doing so.

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bigspenda73

10-05-2006, 06:41 PM

#23 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by arkitekton

if you're behind, every bet you put in with your draw on the turn costs you money.

Come on, we've discussed this and you know this is not the case. If a raise on the turn gets villain to CHECK the river, then you do not lose any more bets had you called the turn and check behind a bricked river instead of villain betting both streets. The raise gets you a free card/information/a bigger pot (for the times you make your river).
The idea of not raising the turn is just a weak play IMO. Your hand is strong in a 6max game, play it that way.

My biggest thought now, if you raise the turn and villain checks the river, who bets here?

outphase

10-05-2006, 10:59 PM

#24 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

My biggest thought now, if you raise the turn and villain checks the river, who bets here?

If villian has AA/AK as we are inclined to believe, betting the river is just spew as those two aren't folding.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lambchopdc

Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.

bigspenda73

10-06-2006, 12:11 AM

#25 (permalink)

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OK phase, next step, lets see the river card and the SBs play, not the final results, just the river and his play. Actually I guess we need his turn play as well

outphase

10-06-2006, 03:03 AM

#26 (permalink)

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I wish I could give it, but he folded to the turn raise.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lambchopdc

Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.

bigspenda73

10-06-2006, 03:09 AM

#27 (permalink)

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You should be happy you cannot give it, you won the hand, villain was behind and you did not allow him to catch up. Either way I dont think KK/QQ/JJ pays off your river bet.

dsaxton

10-06-2006, 05:51 AM

#28 (permalink)

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Actually, now that I think of it, the turn raise is only really much different from calling if you actually have the best hand a significant percentage of the time. If we are raising for a "free show down" and to win extra bets against a hand that we are behind when we improve, we achieve the same thing by calling the turn, calling the river if we brick and raising if we improve. In fact, the risk of being 3-bet might render this a bad line in this case. If we are actually good here a significant percentage of the time, then raising and betting the river is probably best.

bigspenda73

10-06-2006, 06:55 AM

#29 (permalink)

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You assume villain will bet a spade river, he most likely would not.

arkitekton

10-06-2006, 08:45 AM

#30 (permalink)

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Quote:

I wish I could give it, but he folded to the turn raise.

ROFLMAO

dsaxton

10-07-2006, 04:14 AM

#31 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

You assume villain will bet a spade river, he most likely would not.

Um, it came runner-runner spades. He has no reason to suspect a spade flush.

outphase

10-07-2006, 04:56 AM

#32 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

You should be happy you cannot give it, you won the hand, villain was behind and you did not allow him to catch up. Either way I dont think KK/QQ/JJ pays off your river bet.

For purposes of discussion, I wish there was future play.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lambchopdc

Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.

bigspenda73

10-07-2006, 08:59 AM

#33 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

You assume villain will bet a spade river, he most likely would not.

Um, it came runner-runner spades. He has no reason to suspect a spade flush.

Doesn't matter, all things included, the drawy connected board, the turn raise, it all adds up to villain checking a spade river. You know, this is a great hand to analyze as we now can assume villain had KK/QQ. I STILL THINK had villain had AK he would not 3bet the turn, and he would check the river, hell I would had I been raised on the turn w/ AK here, and I am an aggressive player.

dsaxton

10-07-2006, 05:09 PM

#34 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Quote:

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

You assume villain will bet a spade river, he most likely would not.

Um, it came runner-runner spades. He has no reason to suspect a spade flush.

Doesn't matter, all things included, the drawy connected board, the turn raise, it all adds up to villain checking a spade river.

Eh, the whole question was whether or not villain will check the river if he calls, not if he raises.

dsaxton

10-09-2006, 03:48 AM

#35 (permalink)

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This is a very similar situation. There appears to be no reason to raise the turn, since I won an extra bet when I improved anyways:

PokerStars 10/20 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K

, 2

.
2 folds, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, Hero calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 4

, K

, 6

(2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) T

(2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

River: (8.50 BB) 6

(2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

elipsesjeff

10-09-2006, 06:18 AM

#36 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by dsaxton

, 2

.
2 folds, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, Hero calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 4

, K

, 6

(2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) T

(2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

River: (8.50 BB) 6

(2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

Not really, you knew well ahead of time you were way behind on the turn and there was no way SB would ever fold a better hand and obviously he was going to bet the river anyway.

And, I'm not sure I see the value in the flop raise unless you were going to fold the turn to any non diamond or 2....which, if your raise was solely for information you wasted a BB. TKNK is a good time to be selectively passive IMO, especially in a blind war where villain will likely bet a worse hand on all 3 streets but only call/raise with better ones.

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dsaxton

10-09-2006, 01:34 PM

#37 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

My flop raise was for value. I routinely get called down by pocket pairs below K's in these situations, and sometimes even ace high. If he actually has me beat and I get 3-bet, it's not the end of the world. If I had A-2, I would default to calling down, but with K-2, it's much less likely I'm dominated when I hit top pair against a player who 3-bet preflop.

Anyways, that was the point I was making previously in the thread. There is no reason to raise when I know I'm behind. It only makes sense to raise if there is some added value or equity in the raise, neither of which seem to be the case in these hands.

elipsesjeff

10-09-2006, 03:07 PM

#38 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Quote:

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

I tend to not take people seriously who happen to change their minds after the results are posted.

This thread is full of results oriented players who don't understand the logic of long term plays.

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dsaxton

10-09-2006, 05:30 PM

#39 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2005

Location: Arlington, VA

Posts: 2,667

Quote:

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

I tend to not take people seriously who happen to change their minds after the results are posted.

This thread is full of results oriented players who don't understand the logic of long term plays.

Are you suggesting I changed my mind because I saw the results? No. I changed my mind because I thought about what I had posted and came to a different conclusion. In fact, I didn't even know that the results were posted.

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